Language:English
France v England
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
France (Local)
Prediction 79.25%1.26fair odd
EV -4.90%
Edge -4.09%
Kelly -24.52%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.64%79.15%79.13%82.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.131.161.171.2088.50%86.12%85.84%83.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
England (Visit)
Prediction 17.91%5.58fair odd
EV +15.70%
Edge +2.43%
Kelly +2.87%
Growth +0.451%
assuming max odds 6.46
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.73%17.96%17.99%19.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.755.245.156.4621.05%19.07%19.42%15.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 2.84%35.16fair odd
EV +8.07%
Edge +0.212%
Kelly +0.218%
Growth +0.018%
assuming max odds 38.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.50%2.89%2.88%3.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
26.0032.7234.0038.003.85%3.06%2.94%2.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: France (Local): 79.25%; England (Visit): 17.91%; Draw: 2.84%. For England (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.58. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.46, corresponding to a positive expected value of +15.70%.
12 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.76%EV -8.87%E -7.71%K -59.11%G +0.000% | 6.46I 15.48%NM 14.73%EV +15.70%E +2.43%K +2.87%G +0.451% | 38.00I 2.63%NM 2.50%EV +8.07%E +0.212%K +0.218%G +0.018% | 5.1% | 2026-03-14 16:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.51%EV -9.66%E -8.47%K -68.99%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV +7.46%E +1.24%K +1.49%G +0.111% | 31.00I 3.23%NM 3.00%EV -11.84%E -0.382%K -0.395%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-14 18:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.18%EV -7.28%E -6.22%K -42.83%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.06%EV -1.50%E -0.272%K -0.333%G +0.000% | 34.00I 2.94%NM 2.76%EV -3.31%E -0.097%K -0.100%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-14 17:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.18%EV -7.28%E -6.22%K -42.83%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.06%EV -1.50%E -0.272%K -0.333%G +0.000% | 34.00I 2.94%NM 2.76%EV -3.31%E -0.097%K -0.100%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-14 17:53 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.67%EV -8.07%E -6.96%K -50.46%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.44%EV -5.08%E -0.958%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 32.00I 3.13%NM 2.89%EV -8.99%E -0.281%K -0.290%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-14 19:14 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 79.94%EV -8.87%E -7.71%K -59.11%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.51%EV -5.97%E -1.14%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 36.00I 2.78%NM 2.55%EV +2.38%E +0.066%K +0.068%G +0.002% | 8.8% | 2026-03-14 19:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 79.74%EV -8.87%E -7.71%K -59.11%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.64%EV -6.87%E -1.32%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 35.00I 2.86%NM 2.62%EV -0.463%E -0.013%K -0.014%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-14 19:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 79.74%EV -8.87%E -7.71%K -59.11%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.64%EV -6.87%E -1.32%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 35.00I 2.86%NM 2.62%EV -0.463%E -0.013%K -0.014%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-14 19:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 79.40%EV -8.87%E -7.71%K -59.11%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.56%EV -6.87%E -1.32%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 30.00I 3.33%NM 3.04%EV -14.68%E -0.489%K -0.506%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-03-14 05:49 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.24%EV -7.28%E -6.22%K -42.83%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.18%EV -8.66%E -1.70%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 36.00I 2.78%NM 2.58%EV +2.38%E +0.066%K +0.068%G +0.002% | 7.9% | 2026-03-14 19:10 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.24%EV -7.28%E -6.22%K -42.83%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.18%EV -8.66%E -1.70%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 36.00I 2.78%NM 2.58%EV +2.38%E +0.066%K +0.068%G +0.002% | 7.9% | 2026-03-14 19:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.47%EV -7.28%E -6.22%K -42.83%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -10.45%E -2.09%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 29.00I 3.45%NM 3.17%EV -17.53%E -0.604%K -0.626%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-14 16:09 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.47%EV -7.28%E -6.22%K -42.83%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -10.45%E -2.09%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 29.00I 3.45%NM 3.17%EV -17.53%E -0.604%K -0.626%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-14 16:09 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.47%EV -7.28%E -6.22%K -42.83%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -10.45%E -2.09%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 29.00I 3.45%NM 3.17%EV -17.53%E -0.604%K -0.626%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-14 16:10 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 78.48%EV -8.87%E -7.71%K -59.11%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.05%EV -10.45%E -2.09%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.47%EV -26.06%E -1.00%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-03-14 15:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 78.91%EV -10.45%E -9.25%K -80.40%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.01%EV -11.35%E -2.29%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 29.00I 3.45%NM 3.07%EV -17.53%E -0.604%K -0.626%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-03-14 19:45 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.52%EV -6.49%E -5.50%K -36.05%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.91%EV -12.24%E -2.50%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 36.00I 2.78%NM 2.57%EV +2.38%E +0.066%K +0.068%G +0.002% | 7.9% | 2026-03-14 18:54 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.64%EV -4.90%E -4.09%K -24.52%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.62%EV -14.93%E -3.14%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 34.00I 2.94%NM 2.74%EV -3.31%E -0.097%K -0.100%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-14 20:04 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.64% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.10% | 44.05I 2.27%NM 2.26% | 0.5% | 2026-03-14 19:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.64% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.10% | 44.00I 2.27%NM 2.26% | 0.5% | 2026-03-14 19:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.64% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.10% | 44.00I 2.27%NM 2.26% | 0.5% | 2026-03-14 19:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.64% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.10% | 44.00I 2.27%NM 2.26% | 0.5% | 2026-03-14 19:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 79.90% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.87% | 44.00I 2.27%NM 2.23% | 1.8% | 2026-03-14 20:05 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (12)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09% | 4.7% | 2026-03-14 12:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09% | 4.7% | 2026-03-14 12:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09% | 4.7% | 2026-03-14 12:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09% | 4.7% | 2026-03-14 12:04 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03% | 5.1% | 2026-03-14 18:05 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.27% | 4.59I 21.79%NM 20.73% | 5.1% | 2026-03-14 20:05 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24% | 5.4% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90% | 5.8% | 2026-03-14 12:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.07% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.93% | 6.7% | 2026-03-14 12:05 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84% | 6.8% | 2026-03-13 09:49 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84% | 6.8% | 2026-03-13 09:49 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.57% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43% | 8.5% | 2026-03-14 17:30 |