Language:English
England v Ireland
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
England (Local)
Prediction 75.05%1.33fair odd
EV -2.44%
Edge -1.88%
Kelly -8.13%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
71.36%74.77%75.13%76.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.191.241.231.3084.03%80.68%81.63%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Ireland (Visit)
Prediction 21.42%4.67fair odd
EV -3.61%
Edge -0.803%
Kelly -1.03%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.52%21.65%21.31%24.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.774.144.004.5026.53%24.14%25.00%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 3.53%28.30fair odd
EV +6.02%
Edge +0.201%
Kelly +0.208%
Growth +0.013%
assuming max odds 30.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.09%3.57%3.56%4.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
21.0025.0625.0030.004.76%3.99%4.00%3.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: England (Local): 75.05%; Ireland (Visit): 21.42%; Draw: 3.53%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 28.30. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 30.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.02%.
11 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.88%EV -4.69%E -3.69%K -17.37%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.04%EV -17.54%E -4.55%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 30.00I 3.33%NM 3.09%EV +6.02%E +0.201%K +0.208%G +0.013% | 8.0% | 2026-02-21 14:05 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 76.30%EV -9.19%E -7.60%K -43.78%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.52%EV -3.61%E -0.803%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 29.00I 3.45%NM 3.18%EV +2.49%E +0.086%K +0.089%G +0.002% | 8.3% | 2026-02-21 13:38 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.06%EV -8.44%E -6.92%K -38.38%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.62%EV -3.61%E -0.803%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 28.00I 3.57%NM 3.31%EV -1.04%E -0.037%K -0.039%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-02-21 14:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.88%EV -3.19%E -2.47%K -11.00%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.50%EV -14.32%E -3.58%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.62%EV -8.11%E -0.312%K -0.324%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-02-21 12:49 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.03%EV -3.94%E -3.08%K -14.07%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -14.32%E -3.58%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.60%EV -8.11%E -0.312%K -0.324%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-02-21 12:45 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.87%EV -8.44%E -6.92%K -38.38%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.57%EV -3.61%E -0.803%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.56%EV -8.11%E -0.312%K -0.324%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-02-21 13:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.15%EV -8.44%E -6.92%K -38.38%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.32%EV -7.90%E -1.84%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.53%EV -8.11%E -0.312%K -0.324%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-02-21 14:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.15%EV -8.44%E -6.92%K -38.38%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.32%EV -7.90%E -1.84%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.53%EV -8.11%E -0.312%K -0.324%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-02-21 14:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 74.82%EV -9.19%E -7.60%K -43.78%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.56%EV -10.04%E -2.39%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.62%EV -11.65%E -0.466%K -0.485%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-02-21 14:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 75.35%EV -9.94%E -8.29%K -49.72%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.03%EV -7.90%E -1.84%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.62%EV -11.65%E -0.466%K -0.485%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-02-20 05:35 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 74.14%EV -10.69%E -8.99%K -56.29%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.33%EV -15.39%E -3.90%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.53%EV -11.65%E -0.466%K -0.485%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-02-21 14:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.69%EV -3.94%E -3.08%K -14.07%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -14.32%E -3.58%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 4.05%EV -18.71%E -0.814%K -0.851%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-02-21 12:45 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.36%EV -2.44%E -1.88%K -8.13%G +0.000% | 3.77I 26.53%NM 24.61%EV -19.25%E -5.11%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 4.03%EV -18.71%E -0.814%K -0.851%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-02-21 14:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.02%EV -7.69%E -6.25%K -33.45%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.97%EV -5.76%E -1.31%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 4.01%EV -18.71%E -0.814%K -0.851%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-02-20 23:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.16%EV -6.19%E -4.95%K -24.77%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -14.32%E -3.58%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 3.98%EV -18.71%E -0.814%K -0.851%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-02-21 14:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.16%EV -6.19%E -4.95%K -24.77%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -14.32%E -3.58%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 3.98%EV -18.71%E -0.814%K -0.851%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-02-21 14:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.16%EV -6.19%E -4.95%K -24.77%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -14.32%E -3.58%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 3.98%EV -18.71%E -0.814%K -0.851%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-02-21 14:05 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.36%EV -8.44%E -6.92%K -38.38%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.38%EV -14.32%E -3.58%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.26%EV -25.78%E -1.23%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-02-21 14:05 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.78% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.60% | 38.02I 2.63%NM 2.62% | 0.5% | 2026-02-21 14:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.78% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.60% | 38.00I 2.63%NM 2.62% | 0.5% | 2026-02-21 14:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.78% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.60% | 38.00I 2.63%NM 2.62% | 0.5% | 2026-02-21 14:05 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.78% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.60% | 38.00I 2.63%NM 2.62% | 0.5% | 2026-02-21 14:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.39% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.01% | 38.00I 2.63%NM 2.60% | 1.1% | 2026-02-21 14:05 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (11)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 77.46% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 22.54% | 2.5% | 2026-02-21 11:09 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10% | 5.2% | 2026-02-21 12:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08% | 5.7% | 2026-02-21 06:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08% | 5.7% | 2026-02-21 06:14 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08% | 5.7% | 2026-02-21 06:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08% | 5.7% | 2026-02-21 06:14 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08% | 5.7% | 2026-02-21 06:14 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77% | 7.0% | 2026-02-20 05:35 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77% | 7.0% | 2026-02-20 05:35 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83% | 7.6% | 2026-02-21 06:15 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.07% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.93% | 9.0% | 2026-02-21 13:55 |