The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Wests Tigers v Dolphins

Kickoff: 2026-06-20 05:00 UTC

Final: Wests Tigers 22–36 Dolphins

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Wests Tigers (Local)

Prediction 35.66%2.80fair odd
EV -3.73%
Edge -1.38%
Kelly -2.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.67%35.70%35.66%38.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.522.482.7042.55%39.66%40.24%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Dolphins (Visit)

Prediction 60.57%1.65fair odd
EV -4.30%
Edge -2.72%
Kelly -7.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.75%60.37%60.57%62.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.451.521.541.5868.97%65.57%65.15%63.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.78%26.49fair odd
EV +17.03%
Edge +0.549%
Kelly +0.568%
Growth +0.097%

assuming max odds 31.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.97%3.93%3.78%5.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
18.0022.6322.5031.005.56%4.42%4.44%3.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Wests Tigers (Local): 35.66%; Dolphins (Visit): 60.57%; Draw: 3.78%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 26.49. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 31.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +17.03%.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.09%EV -9.08%E -3.56%K -5.85%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 60.94%EV -8.54%E -5.66%K -16.75%G +0.000%31.00I 3.23%NM 2.97%EV +17.03%E +0.549%K +0.568%G +0.097%8.7%2026-06-20 04:49
Tipico (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.67%EV -3.73%E -1.38%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 62.69%EV -12.18%E -8.40%K -27.06%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.64%EV -5.62%E -0.225%K -0.234%G +0.000%10.0%2026-06-19 04:40
Winamax (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.33%EV -16.21%E -6.90%K -12.00%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 57.75%EV -5.51%E -3.53%K -9.85%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.92%EV -13.17%E -0.573%K -0.599%G +0.000%11.0%2026-06-19 21:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.05%EV -16.21%E -6.90%K -12.00%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 58.06%EV -6.72%E -4.37%K -12.45%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.89%EV -13.17%E -0.573%K -0.599%G +0.000%11.8%2026-06-20 04:40
Unibet (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.35%EV -14.42%E -6.01%K -10.30%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.58%EV -7.33%E -4.79%K -13.83%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.07%EV -16.95%E -0.770%K -0.807%G +0.000%11.6%2026-06-20 04:49
NetBet (FR)🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 35.92%EV -13.71%E -5.67%K -9.66%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 59.94%EV -12.18%E -8.40%K -27.06%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.14%EV -20.72%E -0.987%K -1.04%G +0.000%15.0%2026-06-20 04:00
NordicBet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.98%EV -3.73%E -1.38%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.77%EV -4.30%E -2.72%K -7.42%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.25%EV -32.05%E -1.78%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-20 04:50
Betsson🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.98%EV -3.73%E -1.38%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.77%EV -4.30%E -2.72%K -7.42%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.25%EV -32.05%E -1.78%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-20 04:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.70I 37.04%NM 36.92%1.58I 63.29%NM 63.08%0.3%2026-06-20 04:50
BetOnline.ag🎯2.61I 38.31%NM 37.11%1.54I 64.94%NM 62.89%3.2%2026-06-20 04:49
Pinnacle🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.47%1.51I 66.23%NM 63.53%4.2%2026-06-20 04:30
SportsBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%4.9%2026-06-20 04:50
Bet Right🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%5.1%2026-06-20 04:30
TAB🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%5.3%2026-06-20 04:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%5.3%2026-06-19 05:30
Neds🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%5.3%2026-06-19 05:30
Betr (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%5.4%2026-06-19 00:30
Dabble (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%5.4%2026-06-19 12:40
PlayUp🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%5.4%2026-06-20 04:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%5.4%2026-06-20 04:49
LeoVegas🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%5.4%2026-06-20 04:49
Unibet (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%5.4%2026-06-20 04:50
Casumo🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%5.4%2026-06-20 04:49
Unibet (NL)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%5.4%2026-06-20 04:49
TABtouch🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%5.4%2026-06-20 04:50
Unibet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%5.9%2026-06-19 23:29
BetRivers🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%5.9%2026-06-19 23:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%6.2%2026-06-19 06:50
Grosvenor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%6.7%2026-06-20 04:49