The School of OddsSydney Roosters v Parramatta Eels
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. See how the models score across every settled game →
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Head to Head
Sydney Roosters (Local)
Prediction 71.10%1.41fair odd
EV -4.02%
Edge -2.98%
Kelly -11.48%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.08%71.34%71.10%73.87%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.221.291.311.3582%78%76%74%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Parramatta Eels (Visit)
Prediction 25.55%3.91fair odd
EV +2.18%
Edge +0.546%
Kelly +0.728%
Growth +0.016%
assuming max odds 4.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.53%25.24%25.55%27.87%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.203.523.554.0031%28%28%25%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Draw
Prediction 3.36%29.79fair odd
EV +10.78%
Edge +0.327%
Kelly +0.337%
Growth +0.036%
assuming max odds 33.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.79%3.42%3.36%4.21%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
22.0025.7825.0033.005%4%4%3%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
20 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marathon Bet | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.73%EV -6.15%E -4.66%K -19.22%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV -14.42%E -4.30%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 33.00I 3.03%NM 2.79%EV +10.78%E +0.327%K +0.337%G +0.036% | 8.6% | 2026-07-11 09:33 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.26I 79.37%NM 71.84%EV -10.42%E -8.27%K -40.07%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.14%EV -8.04%E -2.23%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 30.00I 3.33%NM 3.02%EV +0.713%E +0.024%K +0.025%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-07-11 09:35 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.67%EV -11.13%E -8.90%K -44.51%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.24%EV -9.31%E -2.62%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 29.00I 3.45%NM 3.09%EV -2.64%E -0.091%K -0.094%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-07-11 09:35 |
| LeoVegas | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.92%EV -4.02%E -2.98%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.36%EV -13.14%E -3.87%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.72%EV -16.07%E -0.643%K -0.670%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-11 09:34 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.87%EV -13.26%E -10.87%K -60.28%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.53%EV +2.18%E +0.546%K +0.728%G +0.016% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.60%EV -16.07%E -0.643%K -0.670%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-07-11 01:49 |
| NetBet (FR) | 1.23I 81.30%NM 70.50%EV -12.55%E -10.20%K -54.57%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 25.89%EV -14.42%E -4.30%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 24.00I 4.17%NM 3.61%EV -19.43%E -0.810%K -0.845%G +0.000% | 15.3% | 2026-07-11 09:35 |
| NordicBet | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.09%EV -6.15%E -4.66%K -19.22%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -8.04%E -2.23%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 22.00I 4.55%NM 4.21%EV -26.14%E -1.19%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-11 08:39 |
| Betsson | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.09%EV -6.15%E -4.66%K -19.22%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -8.04%E -2.23%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 22.00I 4.55%NM 4.21%EV -26.14%E -1.19%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-11 08:39 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.31I 76.34%NM 68.08%EV -6.86%E -5.24%K -22.14%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.87%EV -18.25%E -5.70%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 22.00I 4.55%NM 4.05%EV -26.14%E -1.19%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-07-11 09:34 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (20)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.07% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.93% | 1.9% | 2026-07-11 09:35 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68% | 4.1% | 2026-07-11 08:39 |
| Pinnacle | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12% | 4.6% | 2026-07-11 09:34 |
| Neds | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45% | 4.8% | 2026-07-10 01:15 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45% | 4.8% | 2026-07-10 01:14 |
| Dabble (AU) | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45% | 4.8% | 2026-07-10 06:30 |
| SportsBet | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42% | 5.0% | 2026-07-11 08:40 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70% | 5.2% | 2026-07-08 13:40 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70% | 5.2% | 2026-07-11 09:35 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70% | 5.2% | 2026-07-11 09:35 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70% | 5.2% | 2026-07-11 09:35 |
| Casumo | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70% | 5.2% | 2026-07-11 09:35 |
| TABtouch | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30% | 5.4% | 2026-07-11 09:34 |
| PlayUp | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96% | 5.5% | 2026-07-10 06:19 |
| Bet Right | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96% | 5.5% | 2026-07-11 08:20 |
| Unibet | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55% | 5.8% | 2026-07-11 09:34 |
| BetRivers | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23% | 5.9% | 2026-07-11 04:39 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66% | 6.3% | 2026-07-11 08:14 |
| Grosvenor | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.34% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66% | 6.8% | 2026-07-11 09:35 |
| TAB | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.38% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62% | 7.3% | 2026-07-11 00:54 |