The School of Odds

South Sydney Rabbitohs v Newcastle Knights

Kickoff: 2026-07-12 04:01 UTC

Final: South Sydney Rabbitohs 26–24 Newcastle Knights

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. See how the models score across every settled game →

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Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

South Sydney Rabbitohs (Local)

Prediction 42.70%2.34fair odd
EV -3.93%
Edge -1.75%
Kelly -3.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.10%42.95%42.71%45.23%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.002.122.102.2550%47%48%44%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Newcastle Knights (Visit)

Prediction 52.80%1.89fair odd
EV -4.96%
Edge -2.76%
Kelly -6.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.25%52.57%52.78%53.77%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.661.721.721.8060%58%58%56%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 4.50%22.21fair odd
EV +8.07%
Edge +0.336%
Kelly +0.351%
Growth +0.028%

assuming max odds 24.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.72%4.48%4.51%5.14%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
18.0019.6719.0024.006%5%5%4%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

20 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Winamax (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 42.51%EV -10.33%E -4.92%K -9.39%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 53.77%EV -12.35%E -7.44%K -18.72%G +0.000%24.00I 4.17%NM 3.72%EV +8.07%E +0.336%K +0.351%G +0.028%12.0%2026-07-12 03:59
Marathon Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 42.86%EV -8.20%E -3.81%K -7.13%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 52.96%EV -8.13%E -4.67%K -10.99%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.19%EV -0.937%E -0.043%K -0.045%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-12 03:58
LeoVegas2.15I 46.51%NM 42.81%EV -8.20%E -3.81%K -7.13%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.59%EV -7.60%E -4.34%K -10.14%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.60%EV -9.94%E -0.497%K -0.523%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-12 03:59
Tipico (DE)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.23%EV -14.60%E -7.30%K -14.60%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.25%EV -4.96%E -2.76%K -6.20%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.52%EV -9.94%E -0.497%K -0.523%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-12 03:59
Winamax (DE)2.10I 47.62%NM 42.89%EV -10.33%E -4.92%K -9.39%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 52.37%EV -9.19%E -5.34%K -12.76%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.74%EV -14.45%E -0.760%K -0.803%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-12 03:59
NordicBet2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -3.93%E -1.75%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -9.19%E -5.34%K -12.76%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.14%EV -18.95%E -1.05%K -1.11%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-12 04:00
Betsson2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -3.93%E -1.75%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -9.19%E -5.34%K -12.76%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.14%EV -18.95%E -1.05%K -1.11%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-12 03:59
Unibet (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 43.37%EV -12.47%E -6.08%K -11.87%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 51.69%EV -9.19%E -5.34%K -12.76%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 4.94%EV -18.95%E -1.05%K -1.11%G +0.000%12.5%2026-07-12 03:59
NetBet (FR)2.02I 49.50%NM 43.07%EV -13.75%E -6.81%K -13.48%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 52.10%EV -11.83%E -7.08%K -17.65%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 4.83%EV -18.95%E -1.05%K -1.11%G +0.000%14.9%2026-07-12 03:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (20)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.18I 45.87%NM 44.95%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.05%2.1%2026-07-12 04:00
Pinnacle2.08I 48.08%NM 46.25%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.75%3.9%2026-07-12 03:59
BetOnline.ag2.08I 48.08%NM 46.11%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.89%4.3%2026-07-12 03:59
TAB2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%5.1%2026-07-12 04:00
Unibet (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%5.1%2026-07-12 03:59
Unibet (NL)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%5.1%2026-07-12 03:59
Casumo2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%5.1%2026-07-12 03:59
Unibet2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%5.1%2026-07-12 03:59
SportsBet2.19I 45.66%NM 43.41%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.59%5.2%2026-07-12 03:59
Ladbrokes (AU)2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%5.3%2026-07-12 03:59
Neds2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%5.3%2026-07-12 03:59
PlayUp2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%5.3%2026-07-12 04:00
Bet Right2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%5.3%2026-07-12 03:59
PointsBet (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%5.4%2026-07-12 04:00
TABtouch2.07I 48.31%NM 45.53%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.47%6.1%2026-07-12 03:59
Grosvenor2.07I 48.31%NM 45.53%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.47%6.1%2026-07-12 03:59
BetRivers2.07I 48.31%NM 45.53%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.47%6.1%2026-07-12 03:57
Dabble (AU)2.08I 48.08%NM 45.26%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74%6.2%2026-07-12 03:59
Betr (AU)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%6.3%2026-07-12 04:00
LeoVegas (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.50%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.50%9.9%2026-07-12 04:00