Language:English
Penrith Panthers v Melbourne Storm
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Penrith Panthers (Local)
assuming max odds 1.35
Melbourne Storm (Visit)
assuming max odds 3.60
Draw
assuming max odds 36.00
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Penrith Panthers (Local): 68.22%; Melbourne Storm (Visit): 28.56%; Draw: 3.22%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 31.08. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 36.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +15.85%.
21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 69.17%EV -10.63%E -8.11%K -34.28%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.32%EV -8.62%E -2.69%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 36.00I 2.78%NM 2.52%EV +15.85%E +0.440%K +0.453%G +0.072% | 10.4% | 2026-04-03 09:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.92%EV -11.31%E -8.70%K -37.69%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.44%EV -10.04%E -3.19%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 34.00I 2.94%NM 2.64%EV +9.41%E +0.277%K +0.285%G +0.027% | 11.6% | 2026-04-03 09:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.18%EV -7.90%E -5.85%K -22.56%G +0.000% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 28.94%EV -9.19%E -2.89%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 32.00I 3.13%NM 2.88%EV +2.98%E +0.093%K +0.096%G +0.003% | 8.6% | 2026-04-03 08:59 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.45%EV -9.94%E -7.53%K -31.07%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.83%EV +2.81%E +0.780%K +1.08%G +0.030% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.72%EV -19.55%E -0.782%K -0.815%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-03 09:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 66.49%EV -7.90%E -5.85%K -22.56%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.92%EV -14.33%E -4.78%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.59%EV -19.55%E -0.782%K -0.815%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-04-03 08:58 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -9.26%E -6.96%K -28.06%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -0.049%E -0.014%K -0.019%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.39%EV -32.42%E -1.54%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-03 09:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -9.26%E -6.96%K -28.06%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -0.049%E -0.014%K -0.019%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.39%EV -32.42%E -1.54%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-03 08:59 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 68.65%EV -14.04%E -11.14%K -53.99%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.03%EV -8.62%E -2.69%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.32%EV -35.64%E -1.78%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 15.6% | 2026-04-03 09:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 33.33%EV -31.78%E -31.78%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 1.00I 100.00%NM 33.33%EV -71.44%E -71.44%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 1.00I 100.00%NM 33.33%EV -96.78%E -96.78%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 200.0% | 2026-04-03 09:00 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 71.13% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.87% | 1.9% | 2026-04-03 09:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.41% | 3.49I 28.65%NM 27.59% | 3.8% | 2026-04-03 09:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50% | 4.3% | 2026-04-03 09:00 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35% | 4.8% | 2026-04-03 08:59 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23% | 4.9% | 2026-04-03 09:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88% | 4.9% | 2026-04-03 09:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.71% | 3.49I 28.65%NM 27.29% | 5.0% | 2026-04-03 08:59 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97% | 5.2% | 2026-04-03 09:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97% | 5.2% | 2026-04-03 09:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97% | 5.2% | 2026-04-03 09:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97% | 5.2% | 2026-04-03 09:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97% | 5.2% | 2026-04-03 09:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97% | 5.2% | 2026-04-03 09:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.39% | 3.21I 31.15%NM 29.61% | 5.2% | 2026-04-03 09:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67% | 5.3% | 2026-04-03 09:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73% | 5.5% | 2026-04-03 08:58 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27% | 5.6% | 2026-04-03 09:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49% | 5.8% | 2026-04-03 09:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49% | 5.8% | 2026-04-03 09:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00% | 5.8% | 2026-04-03 09:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.09% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.91% | 9.7% | 2026-04-03 09:00 |