Penrith Panthers v Canberra Raiders

2026-08-01 07:30 UTC — NRL

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Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

71%

25%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Penrith Panthers (Local)

Prediction 71.08%1.41fair odd

EV -7.60%

Edge -5.84%

Kelly -25.33%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

69.87%71.08%71.08%71.99%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.221.271.281.3082%79%78%77%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Canberra Raiders (Visit)

Prediction 25.28%3.96fair odd

EV -3.94%

Edge -1.04%

Kelly -1.41%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

24.42%25.28%25.28%26.14%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

3.303.583.613.8030%28%28%26%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 3.64%27.45fair odd

EV +9.27%

Edge +0.309%

Kelly +0.320%

Growth +0.030%

assuming max odds 30.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

3.07%3.64%3.64%4.22%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

21.0023.8322.0030.005%4%5%3%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

2 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Draw ▼	Margin	Updated
Marathon Bet	1.30I 76.92%NM 70.79%EV -7.60%E -5.84%K -25.33%G +0.000%	3.52I 28.41%NM 26.14%EV -11.02%E -3.13%K -4.37%G +0.000%	30.00I 3.33%NM 3.07%EV +9.27%E +0.309%K +0.320%G +0.030%	8.7%	2026-07-22 04:44
Winamax (DE)	1.26I 79.37%NM 71.99%EV -10.44%E -8.29%K -40.16%G +0.000%	3.70I 27.03%NM 24.52%EV -6.47%E -1.75%K -2.39%G +0.000%	26.00I 3.85%NM 3.49%EV -5.30%E -0.204%K -0.212%G +0.000%	10.2%	2026-07-22 08:10
NordicBet	1.30I 76.92%NM 71.37%EV -7.60%E -5.84%K -25.33%G +0.000%	3.80I 26.32%NM 24.42%EV -3.94%E -1.04%K -1.41%G +0.000%	22.00I 4.55%NM 4.22%EV -19.87%E -0.903%K -0.946%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-07-22 05:25
Betsson	1.30I 76.92%NM 71.37%EV -7.60%E -5.84%K -25.33%G +0.000%	3.80I 26.32%NM 24.42%EV -3.94%E -1.04%K -1.41%G +0.000%	22.00I 4.55%NM 4.22%EV -19.87%E -0.903%K -0.946%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-07-22 05:25
Winamax (FR)	1.22I 81.97%NM 70.44%EV -13.28%E -10.89%K -60.38%G +0.000%	3.35I 29.85%NM 25.65%EV -15.31%E -4.57%K -6.52%G +0.000%	22.00I 4.55%NM 3.91%EV -19.87%E -0.903%K -0.946%G +0.000%	16.4%	2026-07-22 07:10
Unibet (FR)	1.23I 81.30%NM 69.87%EV -12.57%E -10.22%K -54.67%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 26.04%EV -16.58%E -5.02%K -7.21%G +0.000%	21.00I 4.76%NM 4.09%EV -23.51%E -1.12%K -1.18%G +0.000%	16.4%	2026-07-22 08:25

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (2)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Margin ▲	Updated
SportsBet	1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%	3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%	5.3%	2026-07-22 04:45
Betr (AU)	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%	3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%	6.0%	2026-07-22 07:55