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Penrith Panthers v Canberra Raiders
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Penrith Panthers (Local)
assuming max odds 1.32
Canberra Raiders (Visit)
assuming max odds 3.60
Draw
assuming max odds 30.00
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Penrith Panthers (Local): 70.02%; Canberra Raiders (Visit): 26.35%; Draw: 3.62%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 27.60. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 30.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.70%.
19 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 70.26%EV -8.27%E -6.31%K -26.67%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.68%EV -9.08%E -2.63%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 30.00I 3.33%NM 3.07%EV +8.70%E +0.290%K +0.300%G +0.026% | 8.7% | 2026-08-01 07:29 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 70.30%EV -9.67%E -7.50%K -33.34%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.67%EV -10.40%E -3.06%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 30.00I 3.33%NM 3.02%EV +8.70%E +0.290%K +0.300%G +0.026% | 10.3% | 2026-08-01 07:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 69.83%EV -10.37%E -8.10%K -37.03%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.09%EV -13.04%E -3.95%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 29.00I 3.45%NM 3.08%EV +5.07%E +0.175%K +0.181%G +0.009% | 11.9% | 2026-08-01 07:29 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.77%EV -8.97%E -6.90%K -29.89%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -5.13%E -1.43%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.68%EV -9.42%E -0.377%K -0.392%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-01 07:29 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.72%EV -8.97%E -6.90%K -29.89%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.66%EV -10.40%E -3.06%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.63%EV -9.42%E -0.377%K -0.392%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-07-31 19:49 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 69.94%EV -10.37%E -8.10%K -37.03%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.33%EV -10.40%E -3.06%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 24.00I 4.17%NM 3.73%EV -13.04%E -0.543%K -0.567%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-08-01 07:29 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 70.24%EV -13.17%E -10.62%K -54.87%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.62%EV -10.40%E -3.06%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.15%EV -23.91%E -1.14%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-08-01 07:24 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.44%EV -7.57%E -5.73%K -23.65%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.46%EV -5.13%E -1.43%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.09%EV -34.78%E -1.93%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-07-31 12:24 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.44%EV -7.57%E -5.73%K -23.65%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.46%EV -5.13%E -1.43%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.09%EV -34.78%E -1.93%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-07-31 12:25 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (19)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 73.12% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88% | 0.6% | 2026-08-01 07:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.18% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.82% | 4.2% | 2026-08-01 07:25 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82% | 4.8% | 2026-08-01 06:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.21% | 3.43I 29.15%NM 27.79% | 4.9% | 2026-08-01 06:34 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42% | 5.0% | 2026-08-01 06:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42% | 5.0% | 2026-08-01 06:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42% | 5.0% | 2026-08-01 07:04 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42% | 5.0% | 2026-08-01 07:04 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42% | 5.0% | 2026-08-01 07:04 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42% | 5.0% | 2026-08-01 07:04 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42% | 5.0% | 2026-08-01 07:04 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97% | 5.2% | 2026-08-01 07:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73% | 5.5% | 2026-08-01 07:29 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73% | 5.5% | 2026-08-01 07:29 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08% | 5.5% | 2026-08-01 07:24 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08% | 5.5% | 2026-08-01 07:04 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23% | 5.9% | 2026-08-01 07:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15% | 6.0% | 2026-08-01 07:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.12% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88% | 6.5% | 2026-08-01 07:29 |
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