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Parramatta Eels v Melbourne Storm

Kickoff: 2026-05-16 09:46 UTC

Final: Parramatta Eels 8–34 Melbourne Storm

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Parramatta Eels (Local)

Prediction 29.17%3.43fair odd
EV -3.75%
Edge -1.14%
Kelly -1.63%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.13%28.98%29.17%30.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.153.133.3033.33%31.73%31.95%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Melbourne Storm (Visit)

Prediction 67.60%1.48fair odd
EV -8.06%
Edge -5.93%
Kelly -22.39%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.53%67.52%67.60%68.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.341.351.351.3674.63%74.07%74.07%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.23%30.93fair odd
EV +16.38%
Edge +0.455%
Kelly +0.468%
Growth +0.077%

assuming max odds 36.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.51%3.50%3.23%4.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
20.0028.8330.0036.005.00%3.47%3.33%2.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Parramatta Eels (Local): 29.17%; Melbourne Storm (Visit): 67.60%; Draw: 3.23%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 30.93. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 36.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +16.38%.

22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Winamax (DE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.10%EV -12.50%E -4.17%K -6.25%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 67.39%EV -9.41%E -7.02%K -27.69%G +0.000%36.00I 2.78%NM 2.51%EV +16.38%E +0.455%K +0.468%G +0.077%10.7%2026-05-16 09:45
Betsson🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.13%EV -3.75%E -1.14%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.77%EV -8.74%E -6.47%K -24.96%G +0.000%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.09%EV -3.01%E -0.100%K -0.104%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-16 09:45
NordicBet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.13%EV -3.75%E -1.14%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.77%EV -8.74%E -6.47%K -24.96%G +0.000%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.09%EV -3.01%E -0.100%K -0.104%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-16 09:45
Marathon Bet🎯3.16I 31.65%NM 29.16%EV -7.84%E -2.48%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.76%EV -8.06%E -5.93%K -22.39%G +0.000%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.07%EV -3.01%E -0.100%K -0.104%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-16 09:44
Winamax (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.65%EV -11.05%E -3.62%K -5.39%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 67.00%EV -8.74%E -6.47%K -24.96%G +0.000%27.00I 3.70%NM 3.35%EV -12.71%E -0.471%K -0.489%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-16 09:45
Tipico (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.97%EV -9.59%E -3.09%K -4.57%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 66.53%EV -8.74%E -6.47%K -24.96%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.49%EV -35.34%E -1.77%K -1.86%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-16 09:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.30I 30.30%NM 29.79%1.40I 71.43%NM 70.21%1.7%2026-05-16 09:45
BetOnline.ag🎯3.18I 31.45%NM 30.26%1.38I 72.46%NM 69.74%3.9%2026-05-16 09:44
Pinnacle🎯3.06I 32.68%NM 31.24%1.39I 71.94%NM 68.76%4.6%2026-05-16 09:44
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%4.7%2026-05-16 09:45
Neds🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%4.7%2026-05-16 09:45
Bet Right🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.31%1.39I 71.94%NM 68.69%4.7%2026-05-16 09:45
TAB🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%4.7%2026-05-16 09:45
SportsBet🎯3.07I 32.57%NM 31.01%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.99%5.0%2026-05-16 09:45
Betr (AU)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%5.3%2026-05-16 09:45
Unibet (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%5.3%2026-05-16 09:45
Casumo🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%5.3%2026-05-16 09:45
Unibet (NL)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%5.3%2026-05-16 09:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%5.3%2026-05-16 09:45
TABtouch🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%5.3%2026-05-16 09:45
LeoVegas🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%5.3%2026-05-16 09:45
Grosvenor🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%5.3%2026-05-16 09:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%5.3%2026-05-16 09:45
Dabble (AU)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%5.3%2026-05-16 09:44
PlayUp🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%5.3%2026-05-16 09:45
Unibet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.00%1.37I 72.99%NM 69.00%5.8%2026-05-16 09:45
Matchbook◎3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%5.8%2026-05-16 09:44
BetRivers🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%6.4%2026-05-16 09:40