The School of Odds
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Parramatta Eels v Cronulla Sutherland Sharks

Kickoff: 2026-08-30 06:07 UTC

Final: Parramatta Eels 38–18 Cronulla Sutherland Sharks

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Parramatta Eels (Local)

Prediction 28.49%3.51fair odd
EV -3.14%
Edge -0.924%
Kelly -1.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.97%28.59%28.78%30.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.183.173.4033.33%31.46%31.60%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cronulla Sutherland Sharks (Visit)

Prediction 67.49%1.48fair odd
EV -5.52%
Edge -3.94%
Kelly -13.79%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.08%67.35%67.29%68.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.341.341.4076.92%74.70%74.63%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 4.02%24.85fair odd
EV +36.84%
Edge +1.08%
Kelly +1.12%
Growth +0.411%

assuming max odds 34.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.65%4.05%3.92%5.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
18.0023.8823.0034.005.56%4.19%4.35%2.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Parramatta Eels (Local): 28.49%; Cronulla Sutherland Sharks (Visit): 67.49%; Draw: 4.02%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 24.85. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 34.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +36.84%.

19 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Winamax (DE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.56%EV -13.11%E -4.30%K -6.40%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 67.79%EV -10.24%E -7.70%K -31.04%G +0.000%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.65%EV +36.84%E +1.08%K +1.12%G +0.411%10.9%2026-08-30 06:04
Marathon Bet🎯3.18I 31.45%NM 29.03%EV -9.41%E -2.96%K -4.32%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.89%EV -8.22%E -6.04%K -22.83%G +0.000%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.08%EV +20.74%E +0.691%K +0.715%G +0.148%8.3%2026-08-30 06:00
Winamax (FR)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -7.41%E -2.28%K -3.30%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 68.87%EV -12.27%E -9.44%K -40.89%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.58%EV +0.619%E +0.025%K +0.026%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-30 06:04
Unibet (FR)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.43%EV -10.26%E -3.26%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 67.84%EV -10.92%E -8.27%K -34.12%G +0.000%24.00I 4.17%NM 3.73%EV -3.41%E -0.142%K -0.148%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-30 06:03
NetBet (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.04%EV -14.54%E -4.85%K -7.27%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 67.01%EV -12.27%E -9.44%K -40.89%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 3.96%EV -11.46%E -0.521%K -0.545%G +0.000%14.8%2026-08-30 06:03
Tipico (DE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.37%EV -14.54%E -4.85%K -7.27%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.08%EV -5.52%E -3.94%K -13.79%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.56%EV -19.50%E -0.975%K -1.03%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-30 04:15
NordicBet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -3.14%E -0.924%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 67.93%EV -8.89%E -6.59%K -25.41%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.09%EV -27.55%E -1.53%K -1.62%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-30 05:55
Betsson🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -3.14%E -0.924%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 67.93%EV -8.89%E -6.59%K -25.41%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.09%EV -27.55%E -1.53%K -1.62%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-30 05:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (19)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08%1.42I 70.42%NM 69.92%0.7%2026-08-30 06:05
BetOnline.ag🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%3.8%2026-08-30 05:35
Pinnacle🎯2.93I 34.13%NM 32.64%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.36%4.6%2026-08-30 05:50
TAB🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%4.8%2026-08-30 05:44
Bet Right🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%4.9%2026-08-30 05:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%4.9%2026-08-30 04:39
Neds🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%4.9%2026-08-30 04:39
SportsBet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%5.2%2026-08-30 06:05
TABtouch🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%5.3%2026-08-30 05:55
Unibet (NL)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%5.3%2026-08-30 05:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%5.3%2026-08-30 05:55
Casumo🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%5.3%2026-08-30 05:55
Unibet (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%5.3%2026-08-30 05:55
Betr (AU)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%5.3%2026-08-30 01:40
PlayUp🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%5.3%2026-08-30 05:55
BetRivers🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%5.8%2026-08-30 05:55
Unibet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%5.8%2026-08-30 05:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%6.0%2026-08-30 05:50
Grosvenor🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%6.9%2026-08-30 05:55