The School of Odds
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Newcastle Knights v Penrith Panthers

Kickoff: 2026-04-26 04:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Newcastle Knights (Local)

Prediction 22.93%4.36fair odd
EV -3.70%
Edge -0.881%
Kelly -1.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.51%22.93%22.67%24.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.753.963.854.2026.67%25.28%25.97%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Penrith Panthers (Visit)

Prediction 73.51%1.36fair odd
EV -5.91%
Edge -4.62%
Kelly -21.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
71.58%73.51%73.69%75.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.171.241.251.2885.47%80.72%80.00%78.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.57%28.04fair odd
EV +17.69%
Edge +0.536%
Kelly +0.553%
Growth +0.098%

assuming max odds 33.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.80%3.57%3.64%4.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
22.0024.8924.0033.004.55%4.02%4.17%3.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Newcastle Knights (Local): 22.93%; Penrith Panthers (Visit): 73.51%; Draw: 3.57%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 28.04. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 33.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +17.69%.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.57%EV -5.99%E -1.46%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 74.63%EV -8.85%E -7.14%K -36.89%G +0.000%33.00I 3.03%NM 2.80%EV +17.69%E +0.536%K +0.553%G +0.098%8.1%2026-04-23 13:14
Winamax (DE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.51%EV -3.70%E -0.881%K -1.16%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 75.27%EV -11.79%E -9.83%K -58.97%G +0.000%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.23%EV -0.143%E -0.005%K -0.005%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-24 03:15
Tipico (DE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.85%EV -12.87%E -3.39%K -4.60%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 72.52%EV -8.12%E -6.49%K -32.47%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.63%EV -10.84%E -0.434%K -0.452%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-23 06:39
NetBet (FR)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 22.47%EV -11.73%E -3.05%K -4.11%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 73.93%EV -14.00%E -11.96%K -82.35%G +0.000%24.00I 4.17%NM 3.60%EV -14.41%E -0.600%K -0.626%G +0.000%15.6%2026-04-24 02:15
Winamax (FR)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 22.93%EV -14.02%E -3.74%K -5.10%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 73.49%EV -14.00%E -11.96%K -82.35%G +0.000%24.00I 4.17%NM 3.58%EV -14.41%E -0.600%K -0.626%G +0.000%16.3%2026-04-24 03:15
Coral🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.43%EV -14.02%E -3.74%K -5.10%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 71.58%EV -5.91%E -4.62%K -21.12%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.98%EV -17.97%E -0.782%K -0.817%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-21 07:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.43%EV -14.02%E -3.74%K -5.10%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 71.58%EV -5.91%E -4.62%K -21.12%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.98%EV -17.97%E -0.782%K -0.817%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-21 08:00
Betsson🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.36%EV -3.70%E -0.881%K -1.16%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.37%EV -5.91%E -4.62%K -21.12%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.27%EV -21.54%E -0.979%K -1.03%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-24 03:20
NordicBet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.36%EV -3.70%E -0.881%K -1.16%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.37%EV -5.91%E -4.62%K -21.12%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.27%EV -21.54%E -0.979%K -1.03%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-24 03:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%4.4%2026-04-23 22:35
SportsBet🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.45%1.23I 81.30%NM 77.55%4.8%2026-04-22 23:30
Dabble (AU)🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.45%1.23I 81.30%NM 77.55%4.8%2026-04-23 22:34
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%5.0%2026-04-24 03:09
Neds🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%5.0%2026-04-24 03:09
Bet Right🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%5.0%2026-04-24 03:09
TAB🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%5.0%2026-04-24 03:20
PlayUp🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%5.1%2026-04-23 02:09
Betr (AU)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%5.2%2026-04-24 01:00
LeoVegas🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%5.3%2026-04-23 13:00
Unibet (NL)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%5.3%2026-04-23 13:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%5.3%2026-04-23 13:04
Casumo🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%5.3%2026-04-23 13:04
Grosvenor🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%5.3%2026-04-23 13:04
Unibet (SE)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%5.3%2026-04-23 13:04
BetOnline.ag🎯3.81I 26.25%NM 24.85%1.26I 79.37%NM 75.15%5.6%2026-04-24 03:20
Unibet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%1.26I 79.37%NM 75.10%5.7%2026-04-23 13:04
BetRivers🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%1.26I 79.37%NM 75.10%5.7%2026-04-23 13:05
Pinnacle🎯4.02I 24.88%NM 23.43%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.57%6.2%2026-04-23 11:24
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%6.3%2026-04-23 01:44
TABtouch🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.21%1.23I 81.30%NM 75.79%7.3%2026-04-23 13:05