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Melbourne Storm v Penrith Panthers

Kickoff: 2026-08-20 09:53 UTC

Final: Melbourne Storm 14–22 Penrith Panthers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Melbourne Storm (Local)

Prediction 29.84%3.35fair odd
EV -7.50%
Edge -2.42%
Kelly -3.57%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.97%29.85%29.84%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.923.033.023.1034.25%33.03%33.06%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Penrith Panthers (Visit)

Prediction 66.17%1.51fair odd
EV -6.03%
Edge -4.25%
Kelly -14.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.06%66.07%66.01%67.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.371.351.4275.76%72.99%73.80%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.99%25.08fair odd
EV +11.63%
Edge +0.415%
Kelly +0.431%
Growth +0.050%

assuming max odds 28.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.23%4.08%4.15%5.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
18.0022.5020.5028.005.56%4.44%4.88%3.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Melbourne Storm (Local): 29.84%; Penrith Panthers (Visit): 66.17%; Draw: 3.99%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 25.08. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 28.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.63%.

20 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -10.48%E -3.49%K -5.24%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.93%EV -7.36%E -5.25%K -18.39%G +0.000%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.30%EV +11.63%E +0.415%K +0.431%G +0.050%8.3%2026-08-20 09:34
Winamax (DE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.69%EV -8.99%E -2.95%K -4.39%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 67.08%EV -10.66%E -7.90%K -30.47%G +0.000%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.23%EV +11.63%E +0.415%K +0.431%G +0.050%10.4%2026-08-20 09:50
Winamax (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.85%EV -10.48%E -3.49%K -5.24%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 66.83%EV -11.33%E -8.45%K -33.31%G +0.000%27.00I 3.70%NM 3.32%EV +7.64%E +0.283%K +0.294%G +0.022%11.7%2026-08-20 09:49
NetBet (FR)🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 29.84%EV -12.87%E -4.41%K -6.70%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 66.01%EV -12.65%E -9.58%K -39.53%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.15%EV -16.28%E -0.775%K -0.814%G +0.000%14.8%2026-08-20 09:49
Tipico (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.97%EV -7.50%E -2.42%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 66.53%EV -10.66%E -7.90%K -30.47%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.49%EV -20.27%E -1.01%K -1.07%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-18 12:50
Unibet (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.15%EV -11.98%E -4.06%K -6.14%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 65.40%EV -10.00%E -7.35%K -27.78%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.45%EV -20.27%E -1.01%K -1.07%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-19 15:10
NordicBet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.80%EV -7.50%E -2.42%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.06%EV -6.03%E -4.25%K -14.36%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.13%EV -28.24%E -1.57%K -1.66%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-20 09:39
Betsson🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.80%EV -7.50%E -2.42%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.06%EV -6.03%E -4.25%K -14.36%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.13%EV -28.24%E -1.57%K -1.66%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-20 09:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (20)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03%1.44I 69.44%NM 68.97%0.7%2026-08-20 09:50
BetOnline.ag🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%3.8%2026-08-20 09:34
Betr (AU)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%4.7%2026-08-20 09:44
Bet Right🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%4.7%2026-08-20 09:44
TAB🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%4.7%2026-08-20 09:44
Pinnacle🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%4.7%2026-08-20 09:44
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%4.8%2026-08-18 06:44
Neds🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%4.8%2026-08-18 06:44
Matchbook◎3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%4.8%2026-08-20 09:49
Unibet (NL)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%5.3%2026-08-20 09:49
Unibet (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%5.3%2026-08-20 09:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%5.3%2026-08-20 09:49
TABtouch🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%5.3%2026-08-20 09:49
Casumo🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%5.3%2026-08-20 09:49
PlayUp🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%5.3%2026-08-20 09:44
SportsBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%1.39I 71.94%NM 68.34%5.3%2026-08-20 09:34
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%5.8%2026-08-20 09:09
BetRivers🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%5.8%2026-08-20 09:49
Unibet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%5.8%2026-08-20 09:49
Grosvenor🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%6.9%2026-08-20 09:49