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Melbourne Storm v Newcastle Knights

Kickoff: 2026-06-05 08:01 UTC

Final: Melbourne Storm 32–30 Newcastle Knights

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Melbourne Storm (Local)

Prediction 56.19%1.78fair odd
EV -4.47%
Edge -2.63%
Kelly -6.39%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.47%56.46%56.19%58.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.621.601.7064.52%61.84%62.50%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Newcastle Knights (Visit)

Prediction 39.85%2.51fair odd
EV -4.36%
Edge -1.82%
Kelly -3.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.48%39.51%39.85%40.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.292.252.4046.51%43.61%44.44%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.96%25.26fair odd
EV +22.71%
Edge +0.733%
Kelly +0.757%
Growth +0.172%

assuming max odds 31.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.97%4.03%3.96%5.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
18.0023.2924.0031.005.56%4.29%4.17%3.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Melbourne Storm (Local): 56.19%; Newcastle Knights (Visit): 39.85%; Draw: 3.96%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 25.26. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 31.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +22.71%.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.12%EV -7.84%E -4.78%K -12.26%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.91%EV -10.34%E -4.60%K -8.27%G +0.000%31.00I 3.23%NM 2.97%EV +22.71%E +0.733%K +0.757%G +0.172%8.6%2026-06-05 08:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.41%EV -10.09%E -6.31%K -16.82%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.12%EV -10.34%E -4.60%K -8.27%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.47%EV +2.92%E +0.112%K +0.117%G +0.003%10.8%2026-06-05 08:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 56.21%EV -11.22%E -7.10%K -19.34%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.37%EV -12.33%E -5.61%K -10.28%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.42%EV +2.92%E +0.112%K +0.117%G +0.003%12.6%2026-06-05 08:00
NetBet (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 56.01%EV -12.90%E -8.32%K -23.46%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.38%EV -14.33%E -6.66%K -12.46%G +0.000%24.00I 4.17%NM 3.62%EV -5.00%E -0.208%K -0.217%G +0.000%15.2%2026-06-05 07:58
Tipico (DE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.03%EV -12.90%E -8.32%K -23.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.48%EV -4.36%E -1.82%K -3.12%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.50%EV -20.83%E -1.04%K -1.10%G +0.000%11.2%2026-06-05 08:00
Betsson🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.47%EV -4.47%E -2.63%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.29%EV -4.36%E -1.82%K -3.12%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.24%EV -28.75%E -1.60%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-05 07:59
NordicBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.47%EV -4.47%E -2.63%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.29%EV -4.36%E -1.82%K -3.12%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.24%EV -28.75%E -1.60%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-05 08:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.66I 60.24%NM 59.90%2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10%0.6%2026-06-05 08:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%3.4%2026-06-05 07:59
Pinnacle🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.79%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.21%4.1%2026-06-05 07:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.38%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.62%4.5%2026-06-05 07:59
Neds🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.38%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.62%4.5%2026-06-05 07:59
Dabble (AU)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%4.7%2026-06-05 07:59
SportsBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%5.1%2026-06-05 07:59
TAB🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%5.1%2026-06-05 08:00
PlayUp🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%5.1%2026-06-05 08:00
Bet Right🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%5.2%2026-06-05 07:59
Betr (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%5.2%2026-06-05 08:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%5.2%2026-06-05 08:00
LeoVegas🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%5.2%2026-06-05 08:00
Casumo🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%5.2%2026-06-05 08:00
Grosvenor🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%5.2%2026-06-05 08:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%5.2%2026-06-05 08:00
TABtouch🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%5.2%2026-06-05 08:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%5.2%2026-06-05 07:59
BetRivers🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%5.6%2026-06-05 07:58
Unibet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%5.6%2026-06-05 07:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%6.8%2026-06-05 07:59