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Dolphins v Penrith Panthers
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Dolphins (Local)
assuming max odds 4.20
Penrith Panthers (Visit)
assuming max odds 1.32
Draw
assuming max odds 38.00
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Dolphins (Local): 23.88%; Penrith Panthers (Visit): 72.88%; Draw: 3.24%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 30.85. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 38.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +23.16%.
22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.73%EV -9.27%E -2.44%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.90%EV -11.08%E -9.08%K -50.37%G +0.000% | 38.00I 2.63%NM 2.37%EV +23.16%E +0.610%K +0.626%G +0.145% | 10.9% | 2026-04-17 04:25 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.94%EV -10.47%E -2.79%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.57%EV -11.08%E -9.08%K -50.37%G +0.000% | 36.00I 2.78%NM 2.49%EV +16.68%E +0.463%K +0.477%G +0.079% | 11.4% | 2026-04-17 04:24 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.13%EV -11.66%E -3.15%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.17%EV -11.08%E -9.08%K -50.37%G +0.000% | 33.00I 3.03%NM 2.71%EV +6.96%E +0.211%K +0.217%G +0.015% | 12.0% | 2026-04-17 09:49 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.82I 26.18%NM 24.09%EV -8.80%E -2.30%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 73.03%EV -8.17%E -6.48%K -31.41%G +0.000% | 32.00I 3.13%NM 2.88%EV +3.72%E +0.116%K +0.120%G +0.004% | 8.7% | 2026-04-17 09:09 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.81%EV -9.27%E -2.44%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.42%EV -3.79%E -2.87%K -11.85%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.77%EV -18.97%E -0.759%K -0.791%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-17 09:09 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.81%EV -9.27%E -2.44%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.42%EV -3.79%E -2.87%K -11.85%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.77%EV -18.97%E -0.759%K -0.791%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-17 09:09 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.69%EV +0.276%E +0.066%K +0.086%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.67%EV -11.08%E -9.08%K -50.37%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.64%EV -18.97%E -0.759%K -0.791%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-17 06:24 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -4.50%E -1.12%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.16%EV -8.90%E -7.12%K -35.58%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 3.98%EV -25.45%E -1.11%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-17 08:09 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -4.50%E -1.12%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.16%EV -8.90%E -7.12%K -35.58%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 3.98%EV -25.45%E -1.11%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-17 08:00 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 22.80%EV -9.27%E -2.44%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 73.43%EV -14.00%E -11.86%K -77.76%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 3.77%EV -25.45%E -1.11%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 15.4% | 2026-04-17 09:09 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.07% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 73.93% | 0.9% | 2026-04-17 09:49 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.59I 27.86%NM 26.73% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.27% | 4.2% | 2026-04-17 09:49 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15% | 4.5% | 2026-04-17 09:49 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47% | 4.7% | 2026-04-17 09:50 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47% | 4.7% | 2026-04-17 08:59 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58% | 5.0% | 2026-04-17 09:34 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58% | 5.0% | 2026-04-17 09:35 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78% | 5.0% | 2026-04-17 09:34 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95% | 5.1% | 2026-04-17 09:49 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30% | 5.2% | 2026-04-17 06:39 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30% | 5.2% | 2026-04-17 06:39 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30% | 5.2% | 2026-04-17 06:39 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30% | 5.2% | 2026-04-17 06:39 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30% | 5.2% | 2026-04-17 06:39 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30% | 5.2% | 2026-04-17 06:39 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30% | 5.2% | 2026-04-17 06:39 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.52% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.48% | 5.3% | 2026-04-17 09:50 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92% | 5.5% | 2026-04-17 09:49 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49% | 6.0% | 2026-04-17 09:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19% | 6.1% | 2026-04-17 06:39 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19% | 6.1% | 2026-04-17 06:39 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 27.73% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 72.27% | 18.3% | 2026-04-17 09:49 |