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Canberra Raiders v Melbourne Storm

Kickoff: 2026-04-17 08:01 UTC

Final: Canberra Raiders 26–22 Melbourne Storm

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Canberra Raiders (Local)

Prediction 42.89%2.33fair odd
EV -3.50%
Edge -1.55%
Kelly -2.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.86%42.90%42.89%44.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.992.122.102.2550.25%47.19%47.62%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Melbourne Storm (Visit)

Prediction 53.07%1.88fair odd
EV -5.53%
Edge -3.10%
Kelly -7.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.11%52.95%53.07%54.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.721.731.7860.61%58.21%57.80%56.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 4.03%24.79fair odd
EV +8.93%
Edge +0.331%
Kelly +0.343%
Growth +0.031%

assuming max odds 27.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.32%4.15%4.03%5.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
18.0021.8921.0027.005.56%4.57%4.76%3.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Canberra Raiders (Local): 42.89%; Melbourne Storm (Visit): 53.07%; Draw: 4.03%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 24.79. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 27.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.93%.

22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.68%EV -9.93%E -4.73%K -9.03%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 54.00%EV -11.90%E -7.17%K -18.02%G +0.000%27.00I 3.70%NM 3.32%EV +8.93%E +0.331%K +0.343%G +0.031%11.6%2026-04-17 08:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.68%EV -9.93%E -4.73%K -9.03%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 54.00%EV -11.90%E -7.17%K -18.02%G +0.000%27.00I 3.70%NM 3.32%EV +8.93%E +0.331%K +0.343%G +0.031%11.6%2026-04-17 08:00
Marathon Bet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.34%EV -10.79%E -5.19%K -9.99%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.11%EV -6.06%E -3.42%K -7.87%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.55%EV +4.89%E +0.188%K +0.196%G +0.010%8.4%2026-04-17 07:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -9.93%E -4.73%K -9.03%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.46%EV -8.18%E -4.73%K -11.21%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.32%EV -15.28%E -0.728%K -0.764%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-17 08:00
Coral🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -9.93%E -4.73%K -9.03%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.46%EV -8.18%E -4.73%K -11.21%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.32%EV -15.28%E -0.728%K -0.764%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-17 07:59
Tipico (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.73%EV -9.93%E -4.73%K -9.03%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.78%EV -9.77%E -5.75%K -13.96%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.49%EV -19.31%E -0.966%K -1.02%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-17 07:59
NetBet (FR)🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 43.28%EV -14.65%E -7.36%K -14.80%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 52.19%EV -12.43%E -7.53%K -19.12%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.53%EV -23.35%E -1.23%K -1.30%G +0.000%16.1%2026-04-17 07:59
NordicBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -3.50%E -1.55%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -5.53%E -3.10%K -7.09%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.23%EV -27.38%E -1.52%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-17 08:00
Betsson🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -3.50%E -1.55%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -5.53%E -3.10%K -7.09%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.23%EV -27.38%E -1.52%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-17 07:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.42%1.79I 55.87%NM 55.58%0.5%2026-04-17 08:00
Bet Right🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.88%1.78I 56.18%NM 54.12%3.8%2026-04-17 07:59
Pinnacle🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.25%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.75%3.9%2026-04-17 07:59
BetOnline.ag🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.36%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.64%4.0%2026-04-17 08:00
SportsBet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 46.37%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.63%4.2%2026-04-17 07:59
Matchbook◎2.12I 47.17%NM 45.22%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.78%4.3%2026-04-17 07:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%5.0%2026-04-17 07:59
Neds🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%5.0%2026-04-17 08:00
TAB🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%5.1%2026-04-17 07:59
Betr (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%5.1%2026-04-17 07:59
Dabble (AU)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%5.2%2026-04-17 07:59
PlayUp🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%5.3%2026-04-17 07:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%5.4%2026-04-17 07:59
Casumo🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%5.4%2026-04-17 08:00
LeoVegas🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%5.4%2026-04-17 08:00
TABtouch🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%5.4%2026-04-17 07:59
Unibet (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%5.4%2026-04-17 07:59
Unibet (NL)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%5.4%2026-04-17 08:00
Grosvenor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%5.4%2026-04-17 07:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%5.4%2026-04-17 08:00
Unibet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%5.8%2026-04-17 08:00
BetRivers🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%5.8%2026-04-17 07:58