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Brisbane Broncos v Melbourne Storm

2026-08-27 09:50 UTC — NRL

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Brisbane Broncos (Local)

Prediction 47.00%2.13fair odd
EV -6.01%
Edge -3.00%
Kelly -6.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.22%47.00%47.00%47.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.911.922.0055.56%52.45%52.22%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Melbourne Storm (Visit)

Prediction 48.59%2.06fair odd
EV -7.68%
Edge -4.04%
Kelly -8.53%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.86%48.59%48.59%48.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.781.861.891.9056.18%53.76%52.91%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 4.41%22.67fair odd
EV +10.30%
Edge +0.412%
Kelly +0.429%
Growth +0.044%

assuming max odds 25.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.69%4.41%4.41%5.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
18.0020.3319.5025.005.56%4.92%5.13%4.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Brisbane Broncos (Local): 47.00%; Melbourne Storm (Visit): 48.59%; Draw: 4.41%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 22.67. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 25.00, producing a positive expected value of +10.30%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.78%EV -9.30%E -4.82%K -9.99%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.53%EV -7.68%E -4.04%K -8.53%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.69%EV +10.30%E +0.412%K +0.429%G +0.044%8.4%2026-08-19 06:54
Winamax (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.69%EV -10.70%E -5.63%K -11.89%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.19%EV -8.65%E -4.60%K -9.83%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.12%EV -2.94%E -0.134%K -0.140%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-19 06:53
Winamax (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 47.59%EV -15.40%E -8.56%K -19.26%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 48.13%EV -13.51%E -7.59%K -17.32%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.28%EV -11.76%E -0.588%K -0.619%G +0.000%16.7%2026-08-19 06:53
Unibet (FR)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 47.60%EV -14.93%E -8.25%K -18.44%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 47.86%EV -12.54%E -6.96%K -15.67%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.53%EV -16.18%E -0.851%K -0.899%G +0.000%16.1%2026-08-19 06:54
NordicBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.22%EV -6.01%E -3.00%K -6.01%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -7.68%E -4.04%K -8.53%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.14%EV -20.59%E -1.14%K -1.21%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-19 06:54
Betsson🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.22%EV -6.01%E -3.00%K -6.01%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -7.68%E -4.04%K -8.53%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.14%EV -20.59%E -1.14%K -1.21%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-19 06:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
SportsBet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.48%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.52%4.2%2026-08-19 06:50

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