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Brisbane Broncos v Canterbury Bulldogs

Kickoff: 2026-04-24 10:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Brisbane Broncos (Local)

Prediction 39.49%2.53fair odd
EV -3.25%
Edge -1.32%
Kelly -2.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.39%39.35%39.49%40.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.332.342.4545.45%43.00%42.74%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Canterbury Bulldogs (Visit)

Prediction 56.30%1.78fair odd
EV -4.30%
Edge -2.53%
Kelly -6.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.33%56.13%56.30%57.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.621.611.7065.36%61.73%62.11%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 4.21%23.74fair odd
EV +13.72%
Edge +0.508%
Kelly +0.528%
Growth +0.072%

assuming max odds 27.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.41%4.52%4.21%6.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
15.0020.5621.0027.006.67%4.86%4.76%3.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Brisbane Broncos (Local): 39.49%; Canterbury Bulldogs (Visit): 56.30%; Draw: 4.21%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 23.74. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 27.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +13.72%.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 39.37%EV -7.59%E -3.24%K -5.66%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.22%EV -9.36%E -5.82%K -15.35%G +0.000%27.00I 3.70%NM 3.41%EV +13.72%E +0.508%K +0.528%G +0.072%8.6%2026-04-24 03:34
Winamax (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.21%EV -11.14%E -4.95%K -8.92%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 55.85%EV -8.80%E -5.43%K -14.19%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.93%EV -3.13%E -0.136%K -0.142%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-23 10:05
Winamax (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.48%EV -13.12%E -5.96%K -10.93%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 55.65%EV -9.93%E -6.20%K -16.54%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.87%EV -3.13%E -0.136%K -0.142%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-24 01:10
Coral🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 38.69%EV -6.41%E -2.70%K -4.68%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.95%EV -9.36%E -5.82%K -15.35%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.37%EV -11.55%E -0.550%K -0.578%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-21 07:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 38.69%EV -6.41%E -2.70%K -4.68%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.95%EV -9.36%E -5.82%K -15.35%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.37%EV -11.55%E -0.550%K -0.578%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-21 08:00
Tipico (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.18%EV -9.17%E -3.99%K -7.05%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 56.32%EV -9.93%E -6.20%K -16.54%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.51%EV -15.76%E -0.788%K -0.830%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-21 04:15
NetBet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.25%EV -13.12%E -5.96%K -10.93%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 56.43%EV -13.87%E -9.06%K -26.16%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.32%EV -15.76%E -0.788%K -0.830%G +0.000%15.8%2026-04-24 02:20
Betsson🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.39%EV -3.25%E -1.32%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.33%EV -4.30%E -2.53%K -6.14%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.27%EV -36.82%E -2.45%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-23 20:59
NordicBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.39%EV -3.25%E -1.32%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.33%EV -4.30%E -2.53%K -6.14%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.27%EV -36.82%E -2.45%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-23 20:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.49%1.66I 60.24%NM 59.51%1.2%2026-04-24 03:40
BetOnline.ag🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%2.9%2026-04-24 03:45
Bet Right🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%4.1%2026-04-23 23:39
Pinnacle🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.01%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.99%4.6%2026-04-24 01:15
SportsBet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.35%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.65%5.0%2026-04-23 09:59
Dabble (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%5.1%2026-04-23 04:19
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%5.1%2026-04-21 09:50
Neds🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%5.1%2026-04-21 09:50
TAB🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%5.2%2026-04-23 23:30
Betr (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%5.2%2026-04-21 07:04
PlayUp🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%5.2%2026-04-24 00:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%5.4%2026-04-22 03:04
Casumo🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%5.4%2026-04-22 03:05
Grosvenor🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%5.4%2026-04-22 03:04
LeoVegas🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%5.4%2026-04-22 03:04
Unibet (SE)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%5.4%2026-04-22 03:04
TABtouch🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%5.4%2026-04-22 03:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%5.4%2026-04-22 03:05
Unibet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.82%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.18%5.6%2026-04-22 03:05
BetRivers🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.82%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.18%5.6%2026-04-22 03:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%6.0%2026-04-21 08:00