Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Towson Tigers v UMBC Retrievers

Kickoff: 2026-02-27 23:02 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

90%

10%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Towson Tigers (Local)

Prediction 89.75%1.11fair odd

EV -4.86%

Edge -4.59%

Kelly -81.05%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

89.45%89.75%89.55%90.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.021.051.061.0698.04%95.47%94.79%94.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

UMBC Retrievers (Visit)

Prediction 10.25%9.76fair odd

EV +0.434%

Edge +0.044%

Kelly +0.049%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 9.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

9.76%10.25%10.45%10.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

8.659.119.009.8011.56%10.97%11.11%10.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Towson Tigers (Local): 89.75%; UMBC Retrievers (Visit): 10.25%. For UMBC Retrievers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.76. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.434%.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
FanDuel🎯	1.06I 94.34%NM 90.24%EV -4.86%E -4.59%K -81.05%G +0.000%	9.80I 10.20%NM 9.76%EV +0.434%E +0.044%K +0.049%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-02-25 02:59
DraftKings🎯	1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -4.86%E -4.59%K -81.05%G +0.000%	9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -7.76%E -0.863%K -0.971%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-02-27 16:59
BetMGM🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -5.76%E -5.49%K -115.22%G +0.000%	9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -7.76%E -0.863%K -0.971%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-02-25 16:24
Fliff🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 89.45%EV -8.45%E -8.29%K -422.67%G +0.000%	8.65I 11.56%NM 10.55%EV -11.35%E -1.31%K -1.48%G +0.000%	9.6%	2026-02-27 20:29

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.