Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Stony Brook Seawolves v Towson Tigers

Kickoff: 2026-03-21 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Stony Brook Seawolves (Local)

Prediction 17.75%5.64fair odd
EV -2.40%
Edge -0.437%
Kelly -0.534%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.17%17.75%17.96%19.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.755.195.255.5021.05%19.28%19.05%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Towson Tigers (Visit)

Prediction 82.25%1.22fair odd
EV -4.58%
Edge -3.95%
Kelly -28.65%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
80.78%82.25%82.04%82.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.131.141.151.1688.50%87.34%87.34%86.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Stony Brook Seawolves (Local): 17.75%; Towson Tigers (Visit): 82.25%. For Stony Brook Seawolves (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.64. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 5.50, with an expected value of -2.40%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -2.40%E -0.437%K -0.534%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -6.23%E -5.46%K -44.50%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-19 13:49
FanDuel🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.96%EV -5.95%E -1.12%K -1.38%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 82.04%EV -4.58%E -3.95%K -28.65%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-21 15:44
DraftKings🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV -7.73%E -1.49%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 81.89%EV -5.41%E -4.70%K -36.05%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-18 16:19
Fliff🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.22%EV -15.71%E -3.31%K -4.19%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 80.78%EV -7.05%E -6.24%K -54.25%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-20 17:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.