Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Stony Brook Seawolves v Manhattan Jaspers

Kickoff: 2026-02-28 20:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Stony Brook Seawolves (Local)

Prediction 80.47%1.24fair odd
EV -5.05%
Edge -4.28%
Kelly -28.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
79.14%80.47%80.40%80.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.161.171.171.1886.21%85.47%85.47%84.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Manhattan Jaspers (Visit)

Prediction 19.53%5.12fair odd
EV -4.28%
Edge -0.874%
Kelly -1.10%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.41%19.53%19.60%20.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.404.724.804.9022.73%21.16%20.83%20.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Stony Brook Seawolves (Local): 80.47%; Manhattan Jaspers (Visit): 19.53%. For Manhattan Jaspers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.12. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.90, with an expected value of -4.28%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -5.05%E -4.28%K -28.06%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -4.28%E -0.874%K -1.10%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-28 07:47
DraftKings🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -5.86%E -5.00%K -34.44%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.60%EV -6.23%E -1.30%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-25 21:49
BetMGM🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -5.86%E -5.00%K -34.44%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.60%EV -6.23%E -1.30%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-26 14:25
Fliff🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 79.14%EV -6.66%E -5.74%K -41.63%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.86%EV -14.05%E -3.19%K -4.13%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-26 13:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.