Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

St. John's Red Storm v Brown Bears

Kickoff: 2026-03-21 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

St. John's Red Storm (Local)

Prediction 14.94%6.69fair odd
EV -2.87%
Edge -0.441%
Kelly -0.522%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.42%14.94%14.94%15.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.206.356.356.5016.13%15.75%15.75%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Brown Bears (Visit)

Prediction 85.06%1.18fair odd
EV -4.74%
Edge -4.23%
Kelly -39.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
84.70%85.06%85.06%85.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.071.101.111.1293.46%90.91%90.09%89.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: St. John's Red Storm (Local): 14.94%; Brown Bears (Visit): 85.06%. For St. John's Red Storm (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.69. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 6.50, with an expected value of -2.87%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -2.87%E -0.441%K -0.522%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.59%E -5.03%K -50.79%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-18 16:19
Fliff🎯6.35I 15.75%NM 14.42%EV -5.11%E -0.805%K -0.955%G +0.000%1.07I 93.46%NM 85.58%EV -8.99%E -8.40%K -128.42%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-18 16:19
FanDuel🎯6.20I 16.13%NM 15.30%EV -7.35%E -1.19%K -1.41%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 84.70%EV -4.74%E -4.23%K -39.47%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-18 20:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.