Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Navy Midshipmen v Lafayette Leopards

Kickoff: 2026-03-20 23:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

70%

30%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Navy Midshipmen (Local)

Prediction 69.91%1.43fair odd

EV -2.13%

Edge -1.52%

Kelly -5.31%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

67.47%69.91%69.51%72.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.311.351.351.4076.34%73.80%73.80%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lafayette Leopards (Visit)

Prediction 30.09%3.32fair odd

EV +2.31%

Edge +0.678%

Kelly +0.961%

Growth +0.022%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

27.81%30.09%30.49%32.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.803.073.043.4035.71%32.57%32.89%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Navy Midshipmen (Local): 69.91%; Lafayette Leopards (Visit): 30.09%. For Lafayette Leopards (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.32. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.31%.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
BetMGM🎯	1.31I 76.34%NM 72.19%EV -8.42%E -6.43%K -27.15%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV +2.31%E +0.678%K +0.961%G +0.022%	5.7%	2026-03-20 19:50
DraftKings🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.92%E -3.62%K -13.67%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.72%E -2.17%K -3.20%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-03-20 21:04
FanDuel🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 68.04%EV -2.13%E -1.52%K -5.31%G +0.000%	2.98I 33.56%NM 31.96%EV -10.33%E -3.47%K -5.22%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-03-20 22:49
Fliff🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 67.47%EV -5.62%E -4.16%K -16.06%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 32.53%EV -15.75%E -5.62%K -8.75%G +0.000%	9.8%	2026-03-20 21:25

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.