Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mt. St. Mary's Mountaineers v Sacred Heart Pioneers

Kickoff: 2026-03-14 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mt. St. Mary's Mountaineers (Local)

Prediction 14.86%6.73fair odd
EV -0.405%
Edge -0.061%
Kelly -0.071%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.21%14.86%15.08%15.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.856.256.226.7017.09%16.00%16.06%14.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sacred Heart Pioneers (Visit)

Prediction 85.14%1.17fair odd
EV -4.65%
Edge -4.15%
Kelly -38.74%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
84.29%85.14%84.92%85.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.091.111.111.1291.74%90.29%90.09%89.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mt. St. Mary's Mountaineers (Local): 14.86%; Sacred Heart Pioneers (Visit): 85.14%. For Mt. St. Mary's Mountaineers (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.73. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 6.70, with an expected value of -0.405%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯6.70I 14.93%NM 14.21%EV -0.405%E -0.061%K -0.071%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 85.79%EV -5.50%E -4.95%K -50.00%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-11 20:49
BetMGM🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV -7.09%E -1.14%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 84.92%EV -5.50%E -4.95%K -50.00%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-12 13:40
DraftKings🎯6.20I 16.13%NM 15.30%EV -7.84%E -1.26%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 84.70%EV -4.65%E -4.15%K -38.74%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-11 20:30
Fliff🎯5.85I 17.09%NM 15.71%EV -13.04%E -2.23%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.09I 91.74%NM 84.29%EV -7.20%E -6.61%K -80.03%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-14 14:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.