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Michigan Wolverines v Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Michigan Wolverines (Local)
assuming max odds 10.50
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Visit)
assuming max odds 1.06
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Michigan Wolverines (Local): 9.42%; Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Visit): 90.58%. For Michigan Wolverines (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.61. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 10.50, with an expected value of -1.05%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings🎯 | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.09%EV -1.05%E -0.100%K -0.110%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.91%EV -4.90%E -4.66%K -97.90%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-11 16:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -5.76%E -0.576%K -0.640%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -5.80%E -5.58%K -145.02%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-09 15:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 9.80I 10.20%NM 9.76%EV -7.65%E -0.780%K -0.869%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.24%EV -3.99%E -3.76%K -66.49%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-08 21:29 |
| Fliff🎯 | 9.20I 10.87%NM 9.98%EV -13.30%E -1.45%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 90.02%EV -7.61%E -7.46%K -380.62%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-11 16:40 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.