Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Michigan Wolverines v Harvard Crimson

Kickoff: 2026-03-07 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

20%

80%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Michigan Wolverines (Local)

Prediction 20.00%5.00fair odd

EV +1.98%

Edge +0.388%

Kelly +0.483%

Growth +0.010%

assuming max odds 5.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

18.66%20.00%19.90%21.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.354.654.585.1022.99%21.51%21.86%19.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Harvard Crimson (Visit)

Prediction 80.00%1.25fair odd

EV -4.00%

Edge -3.33%

Kelly -19.98%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

78.57%80.00%80.10%81.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.161.181.171.2086.21%84.93%85.11%83.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Michigan Wolverines (Local): 20.00%; Harvard Crimson (Visit): 80.00%. For Michigan Wolverines (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.00. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.98%.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
FanDuel🎯	5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV +1.98%E +0.388%K +0.483%G +0.010%	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -6.40%E -5.47%K -37.62%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-03-05 23:59
BetMGM🎯	4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -5.02%E -1.06%K -1.34%G +0.000%	1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -5.60%E -4.74%K -31.08%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-03-03 16:55
DraftKings🎯	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -12.02%E -2.73%K -3.53%G +0.000%	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -4.00%E -3.33%K -19.98%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-03-04 22:34
Fliff🎯	4.35I 22.99%NM 21.05%EV -13.02%E -2.99%K -3.89%G +0.000%	1.16I 86.21%NM 78.95%EV -7.20%E -6.20%K -44.97%G +0.000%	9.2%	2026-03-05 03:25

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.