Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mercyhurst Lakers v Hampton Pirates

Kickoff: 2026-03-07 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

90%

10%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mercyhurst Lakers (Local)

Prediction 89.98%1.11fair odd

EV -4.62%

Edge -4.36%

Kelly -77.05%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

88.78%89.98%89.81%90.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.031.051.051.0697.09%95.47%95.24%94.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hampton Pirates (Visit)

Prediction 10.02%9.98fair odd

EV +2.22%

Edge +0.218%

Kelly +0.241%

Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 10.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

9.33%10.02%10.19%11.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

8.159.159.1310.2012.27%10.93%10.96%9.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mercyhurst Lakers (Local): 89.98%; Hampton Pirates (Visit): 10.02%. For Hampton Pirates (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.98. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 10.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.22%.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
FanDuel🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 90.67%EV -5.52%E -5.26%K -110.45%G +0.000%	10.20I 9.80%NM 9.33%EV +2.22%E +0.218%K +0.241%G +0.005%	5.0%	2026-03-04 23:55
BetMGM🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 89.81%EV -5.52%E -5.26%K -110.45%G +0.000%	9.25I 10.81%NM 10.19%EV -7.30%E -0.789%K -0.885%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-03-05 15:40
DraftKings🎯	1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -4.62%E -4.36%K -77.05%G +0.000%	9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -9.81%E -1.09%K -1.23%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-03-04 21:45
Fliff🎯	1.03I 97.09%NM 88.78%EV -7.32%E -7.11%K -244.07%G +0.000%	8.15I 12.27%NM 11.22%EV -18.33%E -2.25%K -2.56%G +0.000%	9.4%	2026-03-04 22:00

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.