Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mercer Bears v Jacksonville Dolphins

Kickoff: 2026-05-01 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

96%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mercer Bears (Local)

Prediction 4.38%22.84fair odd

EV +13.84%

Edge +0.532%

Kelly +0.554%

Growth +0.077%

assuming max odds 26.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

3.74%4.38%4.59%4.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

20.0022.3321.0026.005.00%4.48%4.76%3.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jacksonville Dolphins (Visit)

Prediction 95.62%1.05fair odd

EV -3.42%

Edge -3.39%

Kelly -342.23%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.01

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

95.19%95.62%95.41%96.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.011.011.011.0199.01%99.01%99.01%99.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mercer Bears (Local): 4.38%; Jacksonville Dolphins (Visit): 95.62%. For Mercer Bears (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 22.84. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 26.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +13.84%.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
FanDuel🎯	26.00I 3.85%NM 3.74%EV +13.84%E +0.532%K +0.554%G +0.077%	1.01I 99.01%NM 96.26%EV -3.42%E -3.39%K -342.23%G +0.000%	2.9%	2026-04-30 23:59
DraftKings🎯	21.00I 4.76%NM 4.59%EV -8.05%E -0.383%K -0.403%G +0.000%	1.01I 99.01%NM 95.41%EV -3.42%E -3.39%K -342.23%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-04-30 23:59
BetMGM🎯	20.00I 5.00%NM 4.81%EV -12.43%E -0.622%K -0.654%G +0.000%	1.01I 99.01%NM 95.19%EV -3.42%E -3.39%K -342.23%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-05-01 00:00

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.