Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Johns Hopkins Blue Jays v Virginia Cavaliers

Kickoff: 2026-02-28 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

46%

54%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Johns Hopkins Blue Jays (Local)

Prediction 45.74%2.19fair odd

EV +2.47%

Edge +1.10%

Kelly +1.99%

Growth +0.049%

assuming max odds 2.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

41.97%45.74%47.62%47.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.982.072.022.2450.51%48.37%49.38%44.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Virginia Cavaliers (Visit)

Prediction 54.26%1.84fair odd

EV -1.25%

Edge -0.689%

Kelly -1.53%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

52.36%54.26%52.38%58.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.621.721.711.8261.73%58.31%58.48%54.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Johns Hopkins Blue Jays (Local): 45.74%; Virginia Cavaliers (Visit): 54.26%. For Johns Hopkins Blue Jays (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.19. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.24, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.47%.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
DraftKings🎯	2.24I 44.64%NM 41.97%EV +2.47%E +1.10%K +1.99%G +0.049%	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.03%EV -12.11%E -7.47%K -19.52%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-02-28 16:45
Fliff🎯	2.05I 48.78%NM 44.14%EV -6.22%E -3.04%K -5.93%G +0.000%	1.62I 61.73%NM 55.86%EV -12.11%E -7.47%K -19.52%G +0.000%	10.5%	2026-02-28 16:45
FanDuel🎯	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -8.51%E -4.26%K -8.51%G +0.000%	1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -1.25%E -0.689%K -1.53%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-02-23 20:10
BetMGM🎯	1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -9.43%E -4.76%K -9.62%G +0.000%	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -2.34%E -1.30%K -2.92%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-02-24 18:25

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.