Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hobart Statesmen v Le Moyne Dolphins

Kickoff: 2026-03-10 23:02 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

88%

12%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hobart Statesmen (Local)

Prediction 87.62%1.14fair odd

EV -3.62%

Edge -3.29%

Kelly -36.19%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

86.42%87.62%88.20%88.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.061.081.081.1094.34%92.81%93.02%90.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Le Moyne Dolphins (Visit)

Prediction 12.38%8.08fair odd

EV +0.284%

Edge +0.035%

Kelly +0.040%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 8.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

11.76%12.38%11.80%13.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

6.757.467.508.1014.81%13.40%13.33%12.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hobart Statesmen (Local): 87.62%; Le Moyne Dolphins (Visit): 12.38%. For Le Moyne Dolphins (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.08. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.284%.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
FanDuel🎯	1.08I 92.59%NM 88.24%EV -5.37%E -4.97%K -67.14%G +0.000%	8.10I 12.35%NM 11.76%EV +0.284%E +0.035%K +0.040%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-03-10 22:58
BetMGM🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -6.25%E -5.84%K -89.25%G +0.000%	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -0.954%E -0.119%K -0.136%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-03-10 22:59
DraftKings🎯	1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -3.62%E -3.29%K -36.19%G +0.000%	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -13.34%E -1.91%K -2.22%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-03-10 23:00
Fliff🎯	1.06I 94.34%NM 86.43%EV -7.12%E -6.72%K -118.73%G +0.000%	6.75I 14.81%NM 13.57%EV -16.43%E -2.43%K -2.86%G +0.000%	9.2%	2026-03-10 22:59

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.