Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Harvard Crimson v Brown Bears

Kickoff: 2026-04-04 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

92%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Harvard Crimson (Local)

Prediction 92.30%1.08fair odd

EV -4.01%

Edge -3.85%

Kelly -100.22%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

92.02%92.30%92.21%92.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.031.031.031.0497.09%96.77%97.09%96.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Brown Bears (Visit)

Prediction 7.70%12.99fair odd

EV +0.110%

Edge +0.008%

Kelly +0.009%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 13.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

7.34%7.70%7.79%7.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

12.0012.4012.2013.008.33%8.06%8.20%7.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Harvard Crimson (Local): 92.30%; Brown Bears (Visit): 7.70%. For Brown Bears (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 12.99. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 13.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.110%.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
BetMGM🎯	1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -4.93%E -4.79%K -164.39%G +0.000%	13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +0.110%E +0.008%K +0.009%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-04-01 19:55
FanDuel🎯	1.03I 97.09%NM 92.21%EV -4.93%E -4.79%K -164.39%G +0.000%	12.20I 8.20%NM 7.79%EV -6.05%E -0.496%K -0.540%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-04-01 00:04
DraftKings🎯	1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -4.01%E -3.85%K -100.22%G +0.000%	12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -7.59%E -0.633%K -0.690%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-04-04 15:30

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.