Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dartmouth Big Green v Siena Saints

Kickoff: 2026-02-28 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dartmouth Big Green (Local)

Prediction 67.72%1.48fair odd
EV -3.15%
Edge -2.21%
Kelly -7.34%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.59%67.72%68.13%68.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.381.391.381.4372.46%71.68%72.20%69.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Siena Saints (Visit)

Prediction 32.28%3.10fair odd
EV -1.56%
Edge -0.511%
Kelly -0.760%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.15%32.28%31.87%34.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.862.883.0537.74%34.93%34.78%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Dartmouth Big Green (Local): 67.72%; Siena Saints (Visit): 32.28%. For Siena Saints (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.10. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.05, with an expected value of -1.56%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -3.15%E -2.21%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -9.63%E -3.44%K -5.35%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-28 04:34
Fliff🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 65.59%EV -5.86%E -4.22%K -15.04%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.41%EV -14.47%E -5.46%K -8.77%G +0.000%9.7%2026-02-28 16:55
FanDuel🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.54%E -4.74%K -17.21%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -1.56%E -0.511%K -0.760%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-25 21:05
DraftKings🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -6.54%E -4.74%K -17.21%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -4.79%E -1.62%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.4%2026-02-28 16:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.