The School of Odds
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Rögle BK v Växjö Lakers

Kickoff: 2026-04-12 13:14 UTC

Final: Rögle BK 2–4 Växjö Lakers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rögle BK (Local)

Prediction 67.51%1.48fair odd
EV -2.79%
Edge -1.94%
Kelly -6.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.79%67.49%67.44%69.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.351.381.391.4474.07%72.30%71.94%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Växjö Lakers (Visit)

Prediction 32.49%3.08fair odd
EV -0.253%
Edge -0.082%
Kelly -0.122%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.86%32.51%32.56%34.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.912.903.0736.36%34.32%34.48%32.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rögle BK (Local): 67.51%; Växjö Lakers (Visit): 32.49%. For Växjö Lakers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.08. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.07, with an expected value of -0.253%; they did not produce positive expected value.

20 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
theScore Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.82%EV -2.79%E -1.94%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.18%EV -5.78%E -1.99%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-12 12:59
DraftKings🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -3.46%E -2.42%K -8.05%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -10.65%E -3.87%K -6.09%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-12 13:00
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.49%E -3.92%K -13.72%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.78%E -1.99%K -3.04%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-12 12:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.49%E -3.92%K -13.72%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.78%E -1.99%K -3.04%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-12 12:59
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.49%E -3.92%K -13.72%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.78%E -1.99%K -3.04%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-12 12:59
NordicBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 68.26%EV -6.16%E -4.43%K -15.80%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 31.74%EV -2.85%E -0.954%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-12 13:05
Betsson🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 68.26%EV -6.16%E -4.43%K -15.80%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 31.74%EV -2.85%E -0.954%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-12 13:05
Pinnacle🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.14%EV -7.51%E -5.48%K -20.30%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 30.86%EV -0.253%E -0.082%K -0.122%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-12 12:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -8.19%E -6.02%K -22.74%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -6.43%E -2.23%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-12 13:00
Neds🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%EV -8.86%E -6.57%K -25.32%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -5.78%E -1.99%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-12 12:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%EV -8.86%E -6.57%K -25.32%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -5.78%E -1.99%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-12 12:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%EV -8.86%E -6.57%K -25.32%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -5.78%E -1.99%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-12 12:59
Coral🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%EV -8.86%E -6.57%K -25.32%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -5.78%E -1.99%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-12 12:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.40I 71.43%NM 66.18%2.74I 36.50%NM 33.82%7.9%2026-04-12 13:00
Kalshi◎1.39I 71.94%NM 62.02%2.27I 44.05%NM 37.98%16.0%2026-04-12 13:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%98.0%2026-04-12 13:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%98.0%2026-04-12 13:05

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (20)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Unibet (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 57.06%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.30%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.64%3.1%2026-04-12 13:05
ATG (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 57.06%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.30%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.64%3.1%2026-04-12 13:05
Svenska Spel🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 57.06%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.30%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.64%3.1%2026-04-12 13:05
1xBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%4.26I 23.47%NM 22.51%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.08%4.3%2026-04-12 12:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.91%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.08%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.01%4.6%2026-04-12 12:58
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.80%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.45%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.74%4.8%2026-04-12 13:05
Betway🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.41%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.29%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.29%5.5%2026-04-12 13:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.41%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.56%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.03%5.5%2026-04-12 13:00
Coolbet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.58%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.81%5.9%2026-04-12 13:05
Unibet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.83%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.84%6.6%2026-04-12 13:05
Casumo🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.83%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.84%6.6%2026-04-12 13:05
Grosvenor🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.83%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.84%6.6%2026-04-12 13:04
Unibet (NL)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.83%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.84%6.6%2026-04-12 13:04
LeoVegas🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.86%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.33%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.81%9.2%2026-04-12 13:05
TABtouch🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.02%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.25%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%9.6%2026-04-12 13:05
Everygame🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.87%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.07%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.07%11.2%2026-04-12 12:59
Winamax (DE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 54.79%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.75%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%11.3%2026-04-12 13:05
PMU (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 56.89%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.47%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.64%12.7%2026-04-12 13:05
Unibet (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 53.81%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.25%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.94%14.7%2026-04-12 12:59
Winamax (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 54.28%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.16%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.56%15.1%2026-04-12 13:05