The School of Odds
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HV71 v Leksands IF

Kickoff: 2026-03-20 18:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

HV71 (Local)

Prediction 43.67%2.29fair odd
EV -3.93%
Edge -1.79%
Kelly -3.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.55%43.67%43.69%44.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.102.102.2050.00%47.57%47.62%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Leksands IF (Visit)

Prediction 33.20%3.01fair odd
EV -0.393%
Edge -0.131%
Kelly -0.197%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.13%33.20%33.37%33.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.832.883.0039.22%35.28%34.78%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.13%4.32fair odd
EV -1.70%
Edge -0.400%
Kelly -0.524%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.42%23.13%22.94%23.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.654.034.104.2527.40%24.81%24.39%23.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: HV71 (Local): 43.67%; Leksands IF (Visit): 33.20%; Draw: 23.13%. For Leksands IF (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.01. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.00, with an expected value of -0.393%; they did not produce positive expected value.

16 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.81%EV -3.93%E -1.79%K -3.27%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.64%EV -7.03%E -2.51%K -3.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.55%EV -7.48%E -1.87%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-20 18:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 44.76%EV -5.24%E -2.41%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.38%EV -0.393%E -0.131%K -0.197%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.86%EV -1.70%E -0.400%K -0.524%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-20 18:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 44.76%EV -5.24%E -2.41%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.38%EV -0.393%E -0.131%K -0.197%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.86%EV -1.70%E -0.400%K -0.524%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-20 18:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 44.76%EV -5.24%E -2.41%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.38%EV -0.393%E -0.131%K -0.197%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.86%EV -1.70%E -0.400%K -0.524%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-20 18:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.74%EV -6.55%E -3.06%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.46%EV -2.05%E -0.696%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.80%EV -2.86%E -0.680%K -0.893%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-20 18:00
1xBet🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 44.22%EV -6.99%E -3.28%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.81%EV -4.71%E -1.64%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.97%EV -5.17%E -1.26%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-20 17:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 44.50%EV -7.86%E -3.72%K -7.08%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.60%EV -4.38%E -1.52%K -2.33%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -5.17%E -1.26%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-20 17:59
Unibet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.62%EV -8.30%E -3.95%K -7.54%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.53%EV -4.38%E -1.52%K -2.33%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%EV -5.17%E -1.26%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-20 18:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.62%EV -8.30%E -3.95%K -7.54%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.53%EV -4.38%E -1.52%K -2.33%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%EV -5.17%E -1.26%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-20 18:00
Casumo🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.62%EV -8.30%E -3.95%K -7.54%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.53%EV -4.38%E -1.52%K -2.33%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%EV -5.17%E -1.26%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-20 18:00
Grosvenor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.62%EV -8.30%E -3.95%K -7.54%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.53%EV -4.38%E -1.52%K -2.33%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%EV -5.17%E -1.26%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-20 18:00
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.69%EV -8.30%E -3.95%K -7.54%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.37%EV -8.69%E -3.16%K -4.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.94%EV -7.48%E -1.87%K -2.49%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-20 17:59
LeoVegas🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 44.69%EV -10.04%E -4.88%K -9.47%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.30%EV -5.37%E -1.89%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.01%EV -7.48%E -1.87%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-20 18:00
Everygame🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.88%EV -10.48%E -5.11%K -9.98%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.13%EV -7.03%E -2.51%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.99%EV -13.27%E -3.54%K -4.82%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-20 17:59
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -10.48%E -5.11%K -9.98%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.84%EV -12.01%E -4.53%K -7.28%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.42%EV -7.48%E -1.87%K -2.49%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-20 18:00
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.55%EV -10.48%E -5.11%K -9.98%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.55%EV -13.67%E -5.26%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.90%EV -15.58%E -4.27%K -5.88%G +0.000%14.6%2026-03-20 17:59
TABtouch🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 44.54%EV -10.92%E -5.35%K -10.50%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.45%EV -7.03%E -2.51%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.00%EV -8.64%E -2.19%K -2.93%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-20 18:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.88%EV -12.66%E -6.33%K -12.66%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 33.63%EV -15.33%E -6.01%K -9.89%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.49%EV -15.58%E -4.27%K -5.88%G +0.000%16.6%2026-03-20 18:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (16)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.08I 48.08%NM 46.67%1.82I 54.95%NM 53.33%3.0%2026-03-20 18:00
Pinnacle🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.59%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.41%5.2%2026-03-20 17:59
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%5.3%2026-03-20 18:00
NordicBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%5.3%2026-03-20 17:59
Betsson🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%5.3%2026-03-20 17:59
888sport🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%5.4%2026-03-20 17:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%5.4%2026-03-20 17:59
888sport (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%5.4%2026-03-20 17:59
DraftKings🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%6.1%2026-03-20 18:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%7.1%2026-03-20 17:59
Neds🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%7.1%2026-03-20 17:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%7.1%2026-03-20 18:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%7.5%2026-03-20 18:00
Smarkets◎1.70I 58.82%NM 54.55%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.45%7.8%2026-03-20 18:00
Coral🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%8.2%2026-03-20 18:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.67I 59.88%NM 53.74%1.94I 51.55%NM 46.26%11.4%2026-03-20 18:00