The School of Odds
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Södertälje SK v Nybro Vikings IF

Kickoff: 2026-10-16 17:02 UTC

Final: Södertälje SK 5–2 Nybro Vikings IF

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Södertälje SK (Local)

Prediction 55.56%1.80fair odd
EV -5.55%
Edge -3.27%
Kelly -7.93%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.93%56.58%54.90%62.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.481.581.561.7067.57%63.18%64.10%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Nybro Vikings IF (Visit)

Prediction 23.54%4.25fair odd
EV +27.12%
Edge +5.02%
Kelly +6.16%
Growth +1.67%

assuming max odds 5.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.65%22.58%24.21%24.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.564.905.4027.03%21.91%20.41%18.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.90%4.78fair odd
EV +4.51%
Edge +0.902%
Kelly +1.13%
Growth +0.051%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.16%20.84%20.89%21.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.254.704.835.0023.53%21.26%20.73%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Södertälje SK (Local): 55.56%; Nybro Vikings IF (Visit): 23.54%; Draw: 20.90%. For Nybro Vikings IF (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.25. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +27.12%.

8 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.29%EV -15.00%E -9.80%K -28.30%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.65%EV +27.12%E +5.02%K +6.16%G +1.67%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.06%EV -0.714%E -0.150%K -0.190%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-16 16:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -13.33%E -8.55%K -23.81%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.21%EV +17.71%E +3.54%K +4.43%G +0.784%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.21%EV +4.51%E +0.902%K +1.13%G +0.051%4.1%2026-10-16 16:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -13.33%E -8.55%K -23.81%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.21%EV +17.71%E +3.54%K +4.43%G +0.784%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.21%EV +4.51%E +0.902%K +1.13%G +0.051%4.1%2026-10-16 16:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -13.33%E -8.55%K -23.81%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.21%EV +17.71%E +3.54%K +4.43%G +0.784%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.21%EV +4.51%E +0.902%K +1.13%G +0.051%4.1%2026-10-16 16:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -13.33%E -8.55%K -23.81%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.21%EV +17.71%E +3.54%K +4.43%G +0.784%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.21%EV +4.51%E +0.902%K +1.13%G +0.051%4.1%2026-10-16 16:25
Unibet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -15.00%E -9.80%K -28.30%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.22%EV +15.35%E +3.13%K +3.94%G +0.604%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.22%EV +2.42%E +0.494%K +0.621%G +0.015%6.2%2026-10-16 16:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -15.00%E -9.80%K -28.30%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.22%EV +15.35%E +3.13%K +3.94%G +0.604%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.22%EV +2.42%E +0.494%K +0.621%G +0.015%6.2%2026-10-16 16:25
Grosvenor🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -15.00%E -9.80%K -28.30%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.22%EV +15.35%E +3.13%K +3.94%G +0.604%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.22%EV +2.42%E +0.494%K +0.621%G +0.015%6.2%2026-10-16 16:30
TABtouch🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.48%EV -17.78%E -12.01%K -37.03%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.36%EV +10.64%E +2.26%K +2.88%G +0.306%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.16%EV -0.714%E -0.150%K -0.190%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-16 16:25
Codere (IT)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.05%EV -12.22%E -7.73%K -21.07%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.99%EV -3.48%E -0.849%K -1.12%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.96%EV -10.12%E -2.35%K -3.07%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-16 16:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.08%EV -6.67%E -3.97%K -9.80%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -10.54%E -2.77%K -3.77%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -5.94%E -1.32%K -1.70%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-16 16:59
Betway🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.53%EV -7.22%E -4.32%K -10.78%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.29%EV -11.72%E -3.13%K -4.26%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.18%EV -10.12%E -2.35%K -3.07%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-16 17:00
1xBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.06%EV -5.55%E -3.27%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 24.57%EV -11.96%E -3.20%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.37%EV -10.12%E -2.35%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-16 16:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 53.93%EV -6.11%E -3.62%K -8.85%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.63%EV -12.90%E -3.49%K -4.78%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.44%EV -11.17%E -2.63%K -3.44%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-16 17:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (8)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 68.48%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.52%5.1%2026-10-16 16:45
Betsson🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 68.48%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.52%5.1%2026-10-16 16:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%7.7%2026-10-15 20:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%7.7%2026-10-16 06:50
Neds🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%7.7%2026-10-16 06:50
Pinnacle🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%7.9%2026-10-16 16:55
Coral🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.05%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%8.4%2026-10-16 17:00
Smarkets◎1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%8.5%2026-10-16 17:00