The School of Odds
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AIK v Västerås IK

Kickoff: 2026-10-16 17:00 UTC

Final: AIK 6–5 Västerås IK

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

AIK (Local)

Prediction 65.49%1.53fair odd
EV -7.00%
Edge -4.93%
Kelly -16.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.71%65.77%65.58%70.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.371.361.4276.92%73.15%73.53%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Västerås IK (Visit)

Prediction 16.19%6.18fair odd
EV +9.29%
Edge +1.38%
Kelly +1.62%
Growth +0.150%

assuming max odds 6.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.14%15.89%16.13%16.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.506.276.506.7518.18%15.96%15.38%14.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 18.32%5.46fair odd
EV +11.72%
Edge +1.92%
Kelly +2.30%
Growth +0.269%

assuming max odds 6.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.62%18.34%18.29%18.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.755.605.886.1021.05%17.87%17.02%16.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: AIK (Local): 65.49%; Västerås IK (Visit): 16.19%; Draw: 18.32%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.46. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.72%.

8 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.20%EV -10.93%E -8.04%K -30.36%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.14%EV +9.29%E +1.38%K +1.62%G +0.150%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.65%EV +11.72%E +1.92%K +2.30%G +0.269%4.7%2026-10-16 16:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.20%EV -10.93%E -8.04%K -30.36%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.14%EV +9.29%E +1.38%K +1.62%G +0.150%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.65%EV +11.72%E +1.92%K +2.30%G +0.269%4.7%2026-10-16 16:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.20%EV -10.93%E -8.04%K -30.36%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.14%EV +9.29%E +1.38%K +1.62%G +0.150%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.65%EV +11.72%E +1.92%K +2.30%G +0.269%4.7%2026-10-16 16:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.20%EV -10.93%E -8.04%K -30.36%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.14%EV +9.29%E +1.38%K +1.62%G +0.150%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.65%EV +11.72%E +1.92%K +2.30%G +0.269%4.7%2026-10-16 16:25
Unibet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.96%EV -12.24%E -9.13%K -36.00%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.42%EV +5.25%E +0.807%K +0.954%G +0.050%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.62%EV +9.89%E +1.65%K +1.98%G +0.196%6.7%2026-10-16 16:24
Unibet (NL)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.96%EV -12.24%E -9.13%K -36.00%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.42%EV +5.25%E +0.807%K +0.954%G +0.050%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.62%EV +9.89%E +1.65%K +1.98%G +0.196%6.7%2026-10-16 16:25
Grosvenor🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.96%EV -12.24%E -9.13%K -36.00%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.42%EV +5.25%E +0.807%K +0.954%G +0.050%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.62%EV +9.89%E +1.65%K +1.98%G +0.196%6.7%2026-10-16 16:25
TABtouch🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.97%EV -14.86%E -11.43%K -49.53%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.21%EV +3.63%E +0.567%K +0.672%G +0.024%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.82%EV +5.31%E +0.924%K +1.12%G +0.059%9.9%2026-10-16 16:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.61%EV -7.00%E -4.93%K -16.67%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.64%EV -9.33%E -1.67%K -2.03%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.75%EV -3.85%E -0.732%K -0.905%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-16 16:59
Coolbet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.49%EV -7.65%E -5.43%K -18.67%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 14.20%EV +8.48%E +1.27%K +1.49%G +0.126%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.30%EV -4.76%E -0.916%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-16 08:34
1xBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 66.06%EV -8.96%E -6.45%K -22.99%G +0.000%5.76I 17.36%NM 15.94%EV -6.74%E -1.17%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.00%EV -6.59%E -1.29%K -1.61%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-16 16:40
Marathon Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.01%EV -9.62%E -6.97%K -25.31%G +0.000%5.65I 17.70%NM 16.12%EV -8.52%E -1.51%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.86%EV -6.59%E -1.29%K -1.61%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-16 16:35
Codere (IT)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 65.03%EV -8.96%E -6.45%K -22.99%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.14%EV -9.33%E -1.67%K -2.03%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.83%EV -12.09%E -2.52%K -3.18%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-16 15:50
Betway🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 64.71%EV -8.96%E -6.45%K -22.99%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.35%EV -10.95%E -1.99%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.94%EV -13.00%E -2.74%K -3.47%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-16 15:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (8)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betsson🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.90%3.79I 26.39%NM 25.10%5.1%2026-10-16 15:05
NordicBet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%5.2%2026-10-16 16:59
Smarkets◎1.23I 81.30%NM 75.05%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.95%8.3%2026-10-16 15:45
Coral🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%8.6%2026-10-15 20:48
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%8.6%2026-10-15 20:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%8.6%2026-10-16 06:50
Neds🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%8.6%2026-10-16 06:50
Pinnacle🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.15%3.69I 27.10%NM 24.85%9.1%2026-10-16 15:10