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Washington Capitals v Montréal Canadiens
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Washington Capitals (Local)
Prediction 50.48%1.98fair odd
EV -1.06%
Edge -0.540%
Kelly -1.10%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.96
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.35%50.76%50.39%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.721.881.891.9658.14%53.28%52.91%51.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Montréal Canadiens (Visit)
Prediction 49.52%2.02fair odd
EV +1.02%
Edge +0.500%
Kelly +0.982%
Growth +0.010%
assuming max odds 2.04
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.37%49.24%49.61%50.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.881.931.922.0453.19%51.70%52.22%49.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Washington Capitals (Local): 50.48%; Montréal Canadiens (Visit): 49.52%. For Montréal Canadiens (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.02. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.04, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.02%.
21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 52.04%EV -5.10%E -2.71%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.96%EV +1.02%E +0.500%K +0.982%G +0.010% | 2.2% | 2026-10-14 23:30 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 52.21%EV -7.12%E -3.87%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 2.01I 49.75%NM 47.79%EV -0.465%E -0.231%K -0.460%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-14 23:25 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -9.14%E -5.08%K -11.42%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -0.960%E -0.480%K -0.960%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-14 21:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -9.14%E -5.08%K -11.42%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -0.960%E -0.480%K -0.960%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-14 11:35 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -9.14%E -5.08%K -11.42%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -0.960%E -0.480%K -0.960%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-14 23:18 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -9.14%E -5.08%K -11.42%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -0.960%E -0.480%K -0.960%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-14 23:18 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.09%EV -7.62%E -4.16%K -9.18%G +0.000% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 47.91%EV -1.46%E -0.731%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-14 23:29 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.91%EV -4.59%E -2.43%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 49.09%EV -2.94%E -1.50%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-10-14 23:34 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.60%E -3.00%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.44%E -1.76%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-14 23:30 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.60%E -3.00%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.44%E -1.76%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-14 23:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.60%E -3.00%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.44%E -1.76%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-14 23:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.60%E -3.00%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.44%E -1.76%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-14 23:30 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -7.62%E -4.16%K -9.18%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -3.44%E -1.76%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-14 23:35 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -9.14%E -5.08%K -11.42%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -3.44%E -1.76%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-14 23:34 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.79%EV -5.10%E -2.71%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.21%EV -3.93%E -2.03%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-14 23:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%EV -4.59%E -2.43%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%EV -4.43%E -2.29%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-14 23:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -5.60%E -3.00%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -4.43%E -2.29%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-14 23:30 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%EV -3.08%E -1.60%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%EV -4.92%E -2.56%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-14 23:34 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%EV -3.08%E -1.60%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%EV -4.92%E -2.56%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-14 23:34 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 49.35%EV -1.06%E -0.540%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.65%EV -5.42%E -2.84%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-10-14 23:29 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 49.35%EV -1.06%E -0.540%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.65%EV -5.42%E -2.84%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-10-14 23:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.58%E -1.88%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.42%E -2.84%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-14 23:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.58%E -1.88%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.42%E -2.84%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-14 23:34 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.58%E -1.88%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.42%E -2.84%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-14 23:34 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.58%E -1.88%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.42%E -2.84%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-14 23:34 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.58%E -1.88%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.42%E -2.84%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-14 23:30 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.58%E -1.88%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.42%E -2.84%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-14 23:35 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.58%E -1.88%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.42%E -2.84%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-14 23:29 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.58%E -1.88%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.42%E -2.84%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-14 23:30 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.58%E -1.88%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.42%E -2.84%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-14 23:33 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.13%EV -4.09%E -2.15%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.87%EV -5.42%E -2.84%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-14 23:34 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.09%E -2.15%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.91%E -3.11%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-14 23:34 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.09%E -2.15%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.91%E -3.11%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-14 23:34 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.09%E -2.15%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.91%E -3.11%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-14 23:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.09%E -2.15%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.91%E -3.11%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-14 23:33 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -5.10%E -2.71%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -6.90%E -3.67%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-14 23:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -5.10%E -2.71%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -6.90%E -3.67%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-14 23:34 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.22%EV -13.17%E -7.66%K -18.30%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 47.78%EV -6.90%E -3.67%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-10-14 22:34 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (9)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 50.00% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 50.00% | 0.0% | 2026-10-14 23:35 |
| Novig◎ | 1.98I 50.51%NM 50.00% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 50.00% | 1.0% | 2026-10-14 23:35 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.99I 50.25%NM 49.75% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 50.25% | 1.0% | 2026-10-14 23:35 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49% | 1.0% | 2026-10-14 23:30 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.98I 50.51%NM 49.87% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 50.13% | 1.3% | 2026-10-14 23:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.98I 50.51%NM 49.87% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 50.13% | 1.3% | 2026-10-14 23:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.98I 50.51%NM 49.87% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 50.13% | 1.3% | 2026-10-14 23:35 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.97I 50.76%NM 49.74% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 50.26% | 2.0% | 2026-10-14 23:35 |
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41% | 5.9% | 2026-10-14 23:29 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 38.77% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 38.77% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.47% | 1.2% | 2026-10-14 23:35 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.84% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.84% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.32% | 3.0% | 2026-10-14 23:34 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.84% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.84% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.32% | 3.0% | 2026-10-14 23:34 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.84% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.84% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.32% | 3.0% | 2026-10-14 23:34 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.31I 43.29%NM 41.32% | 2.57I 38.91%NM 37.14% | 4.43I 22.57%NM 21.54% | 4.8% | 2026-10-14 23:29 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.91% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.66% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.43% | 4.9% | 2026-10-14 23:35 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.81% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.81% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.37% | 5.2% | 2026-10-14 23:34 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.81% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.81% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.37% | 5.2% | 2026-10-14 23:34 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.81% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.81% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.37% | 5.2% | 2026-10-14 23:34 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.81% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.81% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.37% | 5.2% | 2026-10-14 23:34 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.56% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.11% | 5.2% | 2026-10-14 22:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.78% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.78% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.44% | 6.1% | 2026-10-14 23:35 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.24I 44.64%NM 41.76% | 2.53I 39.53%NM 36.98% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.26% | 6.9% | 2026-10-14 23:34 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.57% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.68% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.75% | 6.9% | 2026-10-14 23:24 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.90% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.09% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.01% | 8.7% | 2026-10-14 23:30 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.24I 44.64%NM 40.88% | 2.49I 40.16%NM 36.78% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.34% | 9.2% | 2026-10-14 23:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.64% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.10% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.26% | 9.4% | 2026-10-14 23:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.11% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.40% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.49% | 10.8% | 2026-10-14 23:29 |
| picklebet_au🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.85% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.68% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.47% | 11.3% | 2026-10-14 23:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.62% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.47% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.91% | 11.9% | 2026-10-14 23:33 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 40.43% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 36.99% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 22.58% | 15.0% | 2026-10-14 23:28 |