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Washington Capitals v Montréal Canadiens

2026-10-14 23:40 UTC — NHL

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Washington Capitals (Local)

Prediction 55.13%1.81fair odd
EV -0.774%
Edge -0.430%
Kelly -0.967%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.25%55.16%55.27%56.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.691.741.741.8059.17%57.41%57.47%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Montréal Canadiens (Visit)

Prediction 44.87%2.23fair odd
EV -1.28%
Edge -0.580%
Kelly -1.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.44%44.84%44.73%46.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.992.112.102.2050.25%47.30%47.62%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Washington Capitals (Local): 55.13%; Montréal Canadiens (Visit): 44.87%. For Washington Capitals (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.81. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.80, with an expected value of -0.774%; they do not produce positive expected value.

17 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -0.774%E -0.430%K -0.967%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -8.01%E -3.91%K -7.63%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-13 19:04
DraftKings🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -2.43%E -1.37%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -5.76%E -2.74%K -5.24%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-13 17:24
BetRivers🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -2.43%E -1.37%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -5.76%E -2.74%K -5.24%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-13 19:14
Bally Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -2.43%E -1.37%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -5.76%E -2.74%K -5.24%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-13 19:15
betPARX🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -2.43%E -1.37%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -5.76%E -2.74%K -5.24%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-13 19:13
Bet Right🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.90%EV -3.53%E -2.02%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 45.10%EV -4.42%E -2.07%K -3.91%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-13 19:14
Betr (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -3.53%E -2.02%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -8.01%E -3.91%K -7.63%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-13 17:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.08%E -2.35%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.52%E -1.64%K -3.06%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-13 19:00
Caesars🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.08%E -2.35%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.52%E -1.64%K -3.06%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-13 18:59
Fliff🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -4.08%E -2.35%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -5.76%E -2.74%K -5.24%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-13 17:24
ReBet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.49%EV -4.63%E -2.68%K -6.35%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 46.51%EV -10.70%E -5.38%K -10.81%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-13 19:04
Fanatics🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.74%E -3.35%K -8.08%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -3.52%E -1.64%K -3.06%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-13 18:59
FanDuel🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -6.29%E -3.70%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -2.17%E -0.997%K -1.84%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-13 19:00
SportsBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -6.29%E -3.70%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -3.07%E -1.42%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-13 19:00
Paddy Power🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -6.84%E -4.05%K -9.91%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -1.28%E -0.580%K -1.06%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-13 18:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Polymarket◎1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64%0.9%2026-10-13 17:24
Kalshi◎1.79I 55.87%NM 54.80%2.17I 46.08%NM 45.20%1.9%2026-10-13 19:40
Smarkets◎1.69I 59.17%NM 53.57%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.43%10.5%2026-10-13 19:05

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (17)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 43.09%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.62%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.29%3.1%2026-10-13 19:04
Unibet (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 43.09%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.62%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.29%3.1%2026-10-13 19:04
ATG (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 43.09%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.62%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.29%3.1%2026-10-13 19:04
Svenska Spel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 43.09%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.62%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.29%3.1%2026-10-13 19:05
1xBet🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 43.27%2.81I 35.59%NM 34.50%4.36I 22.94%NM 22.23%3.2%2026-10-13 19:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 43.26%2.77I 36.10%NM 34.51%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.23%4.6%2026-10-13 19:19
Casumo🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.34%5.3%2026-10-13 19:04
Unibet (NL)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.34%5.3%2026-10-13 19:05
Grosvenor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.34%5.3%2026-10-13 19:05
Unibet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.34%5.3%2026-10-13 19:03
Unibet (UK)🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.59%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.73%5.8%2026-10-13 18:59
TABtouch🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.10%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.80%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.11%6.4%2026-10-13 19:14
Betclic (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.42%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.62%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.96%7.2%2026-10-13 19:04
Codere (IT)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.53%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.50%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.97%8.4%2026-10-13 19:09
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.95%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.08%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.97%10.9%2026-10-13 19:05
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 41.90%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.79%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.31%16.4%2026-10-13 18:59
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.42%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.10%3.95I 25.32%NM 21.48%17.9%2026-10-13 18:59