The School of Odds
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Vegas Golden Knights v Pittsburgh Penguins

Kickoff: 2026-10-18 02:08 UTC

Final: Vegas Golden Knights 6–2 Pittsburgh Penguins

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

41 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Vegas Golden Knights (Local)

Prediction 65.76%1.52fair odd
EV -1.37%
Edge -0.911%
Kelly -2.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.29%65.69%65.81%66.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.371.451.451.5072.99%68.82%68.97%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pittsburgh Penguins (Visit)

Prediction 34.24%2.92fair odd
EV -0.692%
Edge -0.239%
Kelly -0.364%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.03%34.31%34.19%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.622.772.782.9038.17%36.13%35.97%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vegas Golden Knights (Local): 65.76%; Pittsburgh Penguins (Visit): 34.24%. For Pittsburgh Penguins (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.92. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.90, with an expected value of -0.692%; they did not produce positive expected value.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetAnything🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -1.37%E -0.911%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -7.54%E -2.79%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-17 20:20
Everygame🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.86%EV -2.02%E -1.36%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.14%EV -5.83%E -2.12%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-18 02:05
theScore Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -2.68%E -1.81%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -5.83%E -2.12%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-18 02:00
PlayUp🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -2.68%E -1.81%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -7.54%E -2.79%K -4.44%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-18 02:05
Pinnacle🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 66.13%EV -3.34%E -2.27%K -7.10%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.87%EV -1.72%E -0.599%K -0.919%G +0.000%2.9%2026-10-18 01:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.97%EV -3.34%E -2.27%K -7.10%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 34.03%EV -2.40%E -0.844%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.1%2026-10-18 01:50
LowVig.ag🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.97%EV -3.34%E -2.27%K -7.10%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 34.03%EV -2.40%E -0.844%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.1%2026-10-18 01:50
BetUS🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.81%EV -3.34%E -2.27%K -7.10%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 34.19%EV -3.09%E -1.09%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-18 01:30
Caesars🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.49%EV -3.34%E -2.27%K -7.10%G +0.000%2.79I 35.84%NM 34.51%EV -4.46%E -1.60%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-18 01:30
DraftKings🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -4.00%E -2.74%K -8.69%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV -4.12%E -1.47%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-18 01:30
Bet Right🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -4.00%E -2.74%K -8.69%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV -4.12%E -1.47%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-18 01:40
NordicBet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.07%EV -4.00%E -2.74%K -8.69%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.93%EV -6.86%E -2.52%K -3.99%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-18 02:05
Betsson🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.07%EV -4.00%E -2.74%K -8.69%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.93%EV -6.86%E -2.52%K -3.99%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-18 02:05
TAB🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV -4.00%E -2.74%K -8.69%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -7.54%E -2.79%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-18 01:30
Fanatics🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.65%E -3.21%K -10.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.12%E -1.47%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-18 01:35
BetRivers🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.65%E -3.21%K -10.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.12%E -1.47%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-17 15:50
Bally Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.65%E -3.21%K -10.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.12%E -1.47%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-17 15:50
betPARX🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.65%E -3.21%K -10.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.12%E -1.47%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-17 15:50
FanDuel🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.65%E -3.21%K -10.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.12%E -1.47%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-18 01:35
Paddy Power🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.65%E -3.21%K -10.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.12%E -1.47%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-18 01:30
BetMGM🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.65%E -3.21%K -10.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.12%E -1.47%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-18 01:30
GTbets🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.65%E -3.21%K -10.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.12%E -1.47%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-18 01:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.65%E -3.21%K -10.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.12%E -1.47%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-18 01:50
SportsBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.72%EV -4.65%E -3.21%K -10.34%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.28%EV -4.80%E -1.73%K -2.70%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-18 01:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.65%E -3.21%K -10.34%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.83%E -2.12%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-17 18:40
MyBookie.ag🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.65%E -3.21%K -10.34%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.83%E -2.12%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-18 01:49
Fliff🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.65%E -3.21%K -10.34%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.83%E -2.12%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-18 02:05
betano_uk🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.65%E -3.21%K -10.34%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -7.54%E -2.79%K -4.44%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-18 02:05
Bet Victor🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.65%E -3.21%K -10.34%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -7.54%E -2.79%K -4.44%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-18 02:04
ReBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.65%E -3.21%K -10.34%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -7.54%E -2.79%K -4.44%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-18 02:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.65%E -3.21%K -10.34%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -7.54%E -2.79%K -4.44%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-18 01:30
Neds🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.65%E -3.21%K -10.34%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -7.54%E -2.79%K -4.44%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-18 01:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -5.31%E -3.69%K -12.07%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -2.40%E -0.844%K -1.30%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-18 01:35
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.31%E -3.69%K -12.07%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.12%E -1.47%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-18 01:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.31%E -3.69%K -12.07%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.12%E -1.47%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-18 01:30
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.31%E -3.69%K -12.07%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.83%E -2.12%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-18 01:35
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.31%E -3.69%K -12.07%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.83%E -2.12%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-18 01:35
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.31%E -3.69%K -12.07%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.83%E -2.12%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-18 01:35
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.31%E -3.69%K -12.07%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -7.54%E -2.79%K -4.44%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-18 02:05
Bovada🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -5.97%E -4.17%K -13.88%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -0.692%E -0.239%K -0.364%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-18 02:05
NetBet (FR)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 65.66%EV -9.91%E -7.24%K -26.80%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.34%EV -10.28%E -3.92%K -6.35%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-18 01:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.50I 66.67%NM 66.59%2.99I 33.44%NM 33.41%0.1%2026-10-18 01:35
Novig◎1.52I 65.79%NM 65.61%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.39%0.3%2026-10-18 02:00
ProphetX◎1.52I 65.79%NM 65.45%2.88I 34.72%NM 34.55%0.5%2026-10-18 02:05
Kalshi◎1.52I 65.79%NM 65.30%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.70%0.8%2026-10-18 01:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.51I 66.23%NM 65.60%2.88I 34.72%NM 34.40%0.9%2026-10-18 02:05
Matchbook◎1.51I 66.23%NM 65.60%2.88I 34.72%NM 34.40%0.9%2026-10-18 02:05
Polymarket◎1.49I 67.11%NM 66.37%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.63%1.1%2026-10-18 02:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.51I 66.23%NM 65.45%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.55%1.2%2026-10-18 02:05
Smarkets◎1.50I 66.67%NM 65.44%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.56%1.9%2026-10-18 02:05

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
ATG (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 54.62%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.89%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.48%1.7%2026-10-18 00:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 54.49%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.87%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.64%3.1%2026-10-17 15:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 54.49%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.87%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.64%3.1%2026-10-17 15:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 54.49%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.87%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.64%3.1%2026-10-17 15:50
Coolbet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.04%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.17%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.79%4.6%2026-10-18 01:50
1xBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.46%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.35%4.72I 21.19%NM 20.19%4.9%2026-10-18 01:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.42%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.74%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.84%5.0%2026-10-18 02:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.46%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.94%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.60%5.5%2026-10-17 15:50
Casumo🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.46%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.94%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.60%5.5%2026-10-17 15:50
Unibet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.46%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.94%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.60%5.5%2026-10-17 15:50
Grosvenor🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.75%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%6.2%2026-10-17 15:50
TABtouch🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.75%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%6.2%2026-10-17 15:45
Marathon Bet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.15%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.12%6.9%2026-10-18 02:05
Tipico (DE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.33%6.9%2026-10-17 14:10
Winamax (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.13%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.29%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.58%8.7%2026-10-18 02:04
Betway🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.52%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.34%9.3%2026-10-18 02:05
Codere (IT)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.80%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.41%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.79%9.3%2026-10-18 01:45
picklebet_au🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.66%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.27%9.6%2026-10-18 02:05
Winamax (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.78%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.57%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.64%10.7%2026-10-18 02:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 53.63%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.03%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.34%13.0%2026-10-18 02:04
Unibet (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 52.92%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.91%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.17%15.2%2026-10-18 01:45