La escuela de los momios

Vegas Golden Knights v Anaheim Ducks

Inicio: 2026-05-13 01:50 UTC

Final: Vegas Golden Knights 3–2 Anaheim Ducks

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

36 corredores (12 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Vegas Golden Knights (Local)

Predicción 59.53%1.68momio equitativo
EV -2.37%
Ventaja -1.44%
Kelly -3.70%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.64

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
58.52%59.74%59.39%61.58%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.451.611.611.6468.97%62.27%62.11%60.98%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Anaheim Ducks (Visitante)

Predicción 40.47%2.47momio equitativo
EV +1.17%
Ventaja +0.467%
Kelly +0.778%
Crecimiento +0.009%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
38.42%40.26%40.61%41.48%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.202.352.352.5045.45%42.46%42.55%40.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

21 corredores ofrecen un número de opciones distinto para este mercado (3 vías, frente al formato de 2 vías empleado en el análisis). Esta disparidad exige interpretar los resultados con cautela.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (36 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
Caesars1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -7.13%E -4.57%K -12.73%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV +1.17%E +0.467%K +0.778%G +0.009%4.1%2026-05-13 01:44
BetOnline.ag1.60I 62.50%NM 60.59%EV -4.75%E -2.97%K -7.91%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 39.41%EV -0.451%E -0.183%K -0.309%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-13 01:40
Pinnacle1.62I 61.73%NM 60.20%EV -3.56%E -2.20%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.80%EV -0.856%E -0.349%K -0.590%G +0.000%2.5%2026-05-13 01:30
theScore Bet1.64I 60.98%NM 59.71%EV -2.37%E -1.44%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 40.29%EV -1.67%E -0.685%K -1.16%G +0.000%2.1%2026-05-13 01:35
LowVig.ag1.61I 62.11%NM 60.15%EV -4.15%E -2.58%K -6.81%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.85%EV -1.67%E -0.685%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-13 01:40
GTbets1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -4.15%E -2.58%K -6.81%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -2.88%E -1.20%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-13 01:40
BetAnything1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -4.15%E -2.58%K -6.81%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -2.88%E -1.20%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-13 01:40
Bovada1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -4.15%E -2.58%K -6.81%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -2.88%E -1.20%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-13 01:45
BetUS1.62I 61.73%NM 59.50%EV -3.56%E -2.20%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.50%EV -3.69%E -1.55%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-12 21:55
Bet Right1.61I 62.11%NM 59.65%EV -4.15%E -2.58%K -6.81%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.35%EV -3.69%E -1.55%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-13 01:30
Coral1.61I 62.11%NM 59.55%EV -4.15%E -2.58%K -6.81%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.45%EV -4.09%E -1.73%K -2.99%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-12 13:18
Ladbrokes (UK)1.61I 62.11%NM 59.55%EV -4.15%E -2.58%K -6.81%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.45%EV -4.09%E -1.73%K -2.99%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-12 13:19
DraftKings1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -3.56%E -2.20%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -4.50%E -1.91%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-12 13:19
ReBet1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -3.56%E -2.20%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -4.50%E -1.91%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-13 01:20
FanDuel1.61I 62.11%NM 59.45%EV -4.15%E -2.58%K -6.81%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.55%EV -4.50%E -1.91%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-13 01:45
PointsBet (AU)1.63I 61.35%NM 59.05%EV -2.96%E -1.82%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -4.90%E -2.09%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-13 01:44
Paddy Power1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.56%E -2.20%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -4.90%E -2.09%K -3.63%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-13 01:40
BetMGM1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.56%E -2.20%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -4.90%E -2.09%K -3.63%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-12 13:18
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.56%E -2.20%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -4.90%E -2.09%K -3.63%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-13 01:40
Bally Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.56%E -2.20%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -4.90%E -2.09%K -3.63%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-13 01:30
betPARX1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.56%E -2.20%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -4.90%E -2.09%K -3.63%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-13 01:30
Fanatics1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.15%E -2.58%K -6.81%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -4.90%E -2.09%K -3.63%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-13 01:45
Fliff1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.15%E -2.58%K -6.81%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -4.90%E -2.09%K -3.63%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-13 01:45
Betr (AU)1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.75%E -2.97%K -7.91%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.90%E -2.09%K -3.63%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-12 15:35
MyBookie.ag1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.75%E -2.97%K -7.91%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.90%E -2.09%K -3.63%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-13 01:20
SportsBet1.60I 62.50%NM 59.39%EV -4.75%E -2.97%K -7.91%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.61%EV -5.31%E -2.27%K -3.96%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-13 01:45
Betsson1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.15%E -2.58%K -6.81%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -6.12%E -2.64%K -4.63%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-13 01:35
NordicBet1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.15%E -2.58%K -6.81%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -6.12%E -2.64%K -4.63%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-13 01:35
PlayUp1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -2.96%E -1.82%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -6.93%E -3.01%K -5.33%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-13 01:40
Neds1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.56%E -2.20%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.93%E -3.01%K -5.33%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-12 13:19
Ladbrokes (AU)1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.56%E -2.20%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.93%E -3.01%K -5.33%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-12 13:19
William Hill1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.56%E -2.20%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.93%E -3.01%K -5.33%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-12 14:20
TAB1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -4.75%E -2.97%K -7.91%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.93%E -3.01%K -5.33%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-13 00:54
Hard Rock Bet1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -5.34%E -3.36%K -9.06%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -6.93%E -3.01%K -5.33%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-13 01:30
Bet Victor1.55I 64.52%NM 59.21%EV -7.72%E -4.98%K -14.04%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -8.95%E -3.98%K -7.16%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-13 01:19
NetBet (FR)1.45I 68.97%NM 60.27%EV -13.68%E -9.43%K -30.39%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.73%EV -10.97%E -4.99%K -9.14%G +0.000%14.4%2026-05-13 01:15
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (9)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Novig1.66I 60.24%NM 59.90%2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10%0.6%2026-05-13 01:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.65I 60.61%NM 60.24%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.76%0.6%2026-05-13 01:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.65I 60.61%NM 60.24%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.76%0.6%2026-05-13 01:45
Kalshi1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61%1.0%2026-05-13 00:55
Polymarket1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61%1.0%2026-05-13 01:45
BetOpenly1.68I 59.52%NM 58.82%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.18%1.2%2026-05-13 01:29
ProphetX1.62I 61.73%NM 60.87%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.13%1.4%2026-05-13 01:45
Smarkets1.63I 61.35%NM 60.15%2.46I 40.65%NM 39.85%2.0%2026-05-13 01:45
Matchbook1.61I 62.11%NM 60.44%2.46I 40.65%NM 39.56%2.8%2026-05-13 01:45

Otros corredores — no incluidos en el análisis (21)

Estos corredores ofrecen un número de opciones distinto para el mercado y, por ello, quedan excluidos del análisis. Sus momios se muestran únicamente como referencia: las reglas de liquidación de esas apuestas pueden ser diferentes e introducen incertidumbre adicional.

CorredorOpción 1Opción 2Opción 3Margen ▲Actualizado
LeoVegas (SE)2.04I 49.02%NM 47.60%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.83%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.58%3.0%2026-05-13 01:30
Unibet (SE)2.04I 49.02%NM 47.60%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.83%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.58%3.0%2026-05-13 01:30
Svenska Spel2.04I 49.02%NM 47.60%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.83%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.58%3.0%2026-05-13 01:30
ATG (SE)2.04I 49.02%NM 47.60%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.83%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.58%3.0%2026-05-13 01:30
Coolbet1.97I 50.76%NM 48.55%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.71%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.74%4.5%2026-05-13 01:10
1xBet1.96I 51.02%NM 48.73%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.66%4.42I 22.62%NM 21.61%4.7%2026-05-13 01:10
Marathon Bet2.01I 49.75%NM 47.51%3.18I 31.45%NM 30.03%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.47%4.7%2026-05-13 01:20
Unibet (UK)2.02I 49.50%NM 47.25%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.30%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.46%4.8%2026-05-13 01:30
Unibet1.98I 50.51%NM 47.88%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.54%5.5%2026-05-13 01:30
Grosvenor1.97I 50.76%NM 48.00%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.51%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.49%5.7%2026-05-13 01:30
Casumo1.97I 50.76%NM 48.00%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.51%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.49%5.7%2026-05-13 01:30
Unibet (NL)1.97I 50.76%NM 48.00%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.51%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.49%5.7%2026-05-13 01:30
Winamax (DE)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.14%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.41%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.45%6.1%2026-05-13 01:30
TABtouch1.96I 51.02%NM 47.77%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.70%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.53%6.8%2026-05-13 01:30
Tipico (DE)1.95I 51.28%NM 48.02%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.21%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.78%6.8%2026-05-12 16:10
Betclic (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.78%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.54%6.9%2026-05-13 01:35
LeoVegas1.94I 51.55%NM 47.91%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.47%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.62%7.6%2026-05-13 01:30
Winamax (FR)1.98I 50.51%NM 46.90%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.45%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.65%7.7%2026-05-13 01:30
Unibet (FR)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.54%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.39%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.07%7.9%2026-05-13 01:19
Betway1.95I 51.28%NM 46.78%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%9.6%2026-05-13 01:29
PMU (FR)1.85I 54.05%NM 47.87%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.54%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.60%12.9%2026-05-13 01:30