The School of Odds
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Tampa Bay Lightning v Washington Capitals

2026-10-03 23:10 UTC — NHL

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tampa Bay Lightning (Local)

Prediction 56.47%1.77fair odd
EV -3.44%
Edge -2.01%
Kelly -4.85%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.70%56.47%56.56%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.681.691.691.7159.52%59.17%59.35%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Washington Capitals (Visit)

Prediction 43.53%2.30fair odd
EV -1.18%
Edge -0.519%
Kelly -0.927%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.53%43.53%43.44%44.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.192.202.2746.51%45.56%45.45%44.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Tampa Bay Lightning (Local): 56.47%; Washington Capitals (Visit): 43.53%. For Washington Capitals (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.30. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.27, with an expected value of -1.18%; they do not produce positive expected value.

2 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Caesars🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -3.44%E -2.01%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -6.40%E -2.98%K -5.57%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-16 17:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -4.01%E -2.36%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.22%E -1.92%K -3.52%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-05 23:05
Coral🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -4.01%E -2.36%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.22%E -1.92%K -3.52%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-05 23:04
BetMGM🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -4.57%E -2.71%K -6.63%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -4.22%E -1.92%K -3.52%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-05 23:05
Bovada🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.47%EV -5.14%E -3.06%K -7.55%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 42.53%EV -1.18%E -0.519%K -0.927%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-15 20:49
DraftKings🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -5.14%E -3.06%K -7.55%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV -2.48%E -1.11%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-16 17:50
Neds🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -5.14%E -3.06%K -7.55%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -6.40%E -2.98%K -5.57%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-05 23:04
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -5.14%E -3.06%K -7.55%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -6.40%E -2.98%K -5.57%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-05 23:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Polymarket◎1.61I 62.11%NM 54.00%1.89I 52.91%NM 46.00%15.0%2026-09-15 04:05

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (2)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 42.88%2.82I 35.46%NM 34.37%4.26I 23.47%NM 22.75%3.2%2026-09-05 23:05
Marathon Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.86%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.38%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.76%4.6%2026-09-05 23:05