Language:English
Tampa Bay Lightning v Washington Capitals
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Tampa Bay Lightning (Local)
Prediction 63.92%1.56fair odd
EV -2.21%
Edge -1.44%
Kelly -4.17%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.53
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.03%63.94%63.86%65.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.411.501.501.5370.92%66.73%66.67%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Washington Capitals (Visit)
Prediction 36.08%2.77fair odd
EV -0.767%
Edge -0.279%
Kelly -0.438%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.99%36.06%36.14%37.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.632.632.7540.00%37.97%38.02%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tampa Bay Lightning (Local): 63.92%; Washington Capitals (Visit): 36.08%. For Washington Capitals (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.77. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.75, with an expected value of -0.767%; they did not produce positive expected value.
21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -2.21%E -1.44%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -6.18%E -2.38%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-10-03 23:05 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -2.21%E -1.44%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -6.18%E -2.38%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-10-03 23:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.21%E -1.44%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -9.79%E -3.92%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-03 16:10 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 64.15%EV -2.85%E -1.87%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 35.85%EV -1.85%E -0.680%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-10-03 23:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.96%EV -3.49%E -2.31%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 36.04%EV -3.29%E -1.23%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-10-03 22:39 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.70%EV -3.49%E -2.31%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.30%EV -4.38%E -1.65%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-10-03 17:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.44%EV -3.49%E -2.31%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.56%EV -5.46%E -2.08%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-03 23:05 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -3.49%E -2.31%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -9.79%E -3.92%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-03 23:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.71%EV -4.13%E -2.75%K -8.25%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 35.29%EV -0.767%E -0.279%K -0.438%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-10-03 16:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.71%EV -4.13%E -2.75%K -8.25%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 35.29%EV -0.767%E -0.279%K -0.438%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-10-03 16:11 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -4.13%E -2.75%K -8.25%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -2.57%E -0.952%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-10-03 17:35 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -4.13%E -2.75%K -8.25%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -2.57%E -0.952%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-10-03 16:10 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -4.13%E -2.75%K -8.25%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -2.57%E -0.952%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-10-03 17:35 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -4.13%E -2.75%K -8.25%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -2.57%E -0.952%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-10-03 21:35 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.13%E -2.75%K -8.25%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -4.38%E -1.65%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-03 16:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.13%E -2.75%K -8.25%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -4.38%E -1.65%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-03 23:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.13%E -2.75%K -8.25%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -4.38%E -1.65%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-03 22:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.13%E -2.75%K -8.25%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -4.38%E -1.65%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-03 16:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -4.13%E -2.75%K -8.25%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -5.46%E -2.08%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-03 23:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -4.13%E -2.75%K -8.25%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -5.46%E -2.08%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-03 23:05 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.13%E -2.75%K -8.25%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.18%E -2.38%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-03 23:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.13%E -2.75%K -8.25%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.18%E -2.38%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-03 23:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.13%E -2.75%K -8.25%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.18%E -2.38%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-03 23:05 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.13%E -2.75%K -8.25%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -7.98%E -3.13%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-03 23:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.13%E -2.75%K -8.25%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -7.98%E -3.13%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-03 23:05 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.13%E -2.75%K -8.25%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -7.98%E -3.13%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-03 16:29 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.13%E -2.75%K -8.25%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.79%E -3.92%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-03 22:49 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.13%E -2.75%K -8.25%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.79%E -3.92%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-03 22:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -4.77%E -3.20%K -9.73%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -2.57%E -0.952%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-03 16:35 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.01%EV -4.77%E -3.20%K -9.73%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.99%EV -4.38%E -1.65%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-03 23:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -4.77%E -3.20%K -9.73%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -5.10%E -1.94%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-03 23:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -4.77%E -3.20%K -9.73%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -5.10%E -1.94%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-03 23:05 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -4.77%E -3.20%K -9.73%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -5.10%E -1.94%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-03 17:43 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -5.41%E -3.65%K -11.26%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -0.767%E -0.279%K -0.438%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-10-03 23:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -5.41%E -3.65%K -11.26%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -0.767%E -0.279%K -0.438%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-10-03 22:50 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -5.41%E -3.65%K -11.26%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -0.767%E -0.279%K -0.438%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-10-03 22:50 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 63.94%EV -9.88%E -7.01%K -24.10%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.06%EV -9.79%E -3.92%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-10-03 23:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (9)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.53I 65.36%NM 65.46% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 34.54% | -0.2% | 2026-10-03 22:40 |
| Novig◎ | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.68% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 35.32% | 0.4% | 2026-10-03 21:55 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.55I 64.52%NM 64.20% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.80% | 0.5% | 2026-10-03 23:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.55I 64.52%NM 64.04% | 2.76I 36.23%NM 35.96% | 0.7% | 2026-10-03 23:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.55I 64.52%NM 64.04% | 2.76I 36.23%NM 35.96% | 0.7% | 2026-10-03 23:00 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.35% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.65% | 0.9% | 2026-10-03 16:31 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.35% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.65% | 0.9% | 2026-10-03 23:05 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 63.38% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62% | 1.1% | 2026-10-03 23:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.53I 65.36%NM 64.17% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 35.83% | 1.9% | 2026-10-03 23:00 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.21% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.92% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.87% | 1.6% | 2026-10-03 23:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 53.18% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.82% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.00% | 3.3% | 2026-10-03 23:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 53.18% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.82% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.00% | 3.3% | 2026-10-03 23:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 53.18% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.82% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.00% | 3.3% | 2026-10-03 23:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.57% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.74% | 4.6% | 2026-10-03 22:59 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.83% | 3.48I 28.74%NM 27.46% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.72% | 4.7% | 2026-10-03 22:38 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.73% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.15% | 4.52I 22.12%NM 21.12% | 4.8% | 2026-10-03 22:57 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.04% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.27% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.69% | 4.8% | 2026-10-03 17:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.12% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.02% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.86% | 5.2% | 2026-10-03 23:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.12% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.02% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.86% | 5.2% | 2026-10-03 23:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.12% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.02% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.86% | 5.2% | 2026-10-03 23:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.12% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.02% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.86% | 5.2% | 2026-10-03 23:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.09% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.06% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.85% | 6.4% | 2026-10-03 23:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.17% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.28% | 6.8% | 2026-10-03 16:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89% | 8.8% | 2026-10-03 23:00 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 50.73% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.41% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.86% | 8.9% | 2026-10-03 17:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.91% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.77% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.31% | 9.1% | 2026-10-03 17:35 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 53.11% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.13% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.76% | 12.1% | 2026-10-03 23:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.61% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.25% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.14% | 12.9% | 2026-10-03 23:04 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.25% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.48% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.26% | 13.7% | 2026-10-03 22:49 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 50.32% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.79% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.89% | 14.2% | 2026-10-03 23:00 |