Tampa Bay Lightning v Washington Capitals

2026-10-03 23:10 UTC — NHL

Head to Head

1 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

57%

43%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Tampa Bay Lightning (Local)

Prediction 57.14%1.75fair odd

EV -4.00%

Edge -2.38%

Kelly -5.88%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

57.14%57.14%57.14%57.14%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.681.681.681.6860%60%60%60%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Washington Capitals (Visit)

Prediction 42.86%2.33fair odd

EV -4.00%

Edge -1.79%

Kelly -3.23%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

42.86%42.86%42.86%42.86%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

2.242.242.242.2445%45%45%45%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Caesars	1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -2.29%E -1.34%K -3.22%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -7.86%E -3.65%K -6.83%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-07-16 17:50
PointsBet (AU)	1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.43%E -2.03%K -4.97%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -3.57%E -1.59%K -2.86%G +0.000%	3.6%	2026-07-16 17:50
DraftKings	1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -4.00%E -2.38%K -5.88%G +0.000%	2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV -4.00%E -1.79%K -3.23%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-07-16 17:50

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.