Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tampa Bay Lightning v Vancouver Canucks

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 20:09 UTC

Final: Tampa Bay Lightning 4–2 Vancouver Canucks

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

41 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

76%

24%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tampa Bay Lightning (Local)

Prediction 76.19%1.31fair odd

EV -1.72%

Edge -1.33%

Kelly -5.92%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

74.15%76.15%76.29%78.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.191.251.251.2984.03%79.92%80.00%77.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Vancouver Canucks (Visit)

Prediction 23.81%4.20fair odd

EV +4.77%

Edge +1.09%

Kelly +1.40%

Growth +0.067%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

21.99%23.85%23.71%25.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.603.974.004.4027.78%25.17%25.00%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tampa Bay Lightning (Local): 76.19%; Vancouver Canucks (Visit): 23.81%. For Vancouver Canucks (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.20. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.77%.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
LowVig.ag🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 78.01%EV -5.53%E -4.46%K -23.03%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.99%EV +4.77%E +1.09%K +1.40%G +0.067%	3.4%	2026-10-17 20:05
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 78.01%EV -5.53%E -4.46%K -23.03%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.99%EV +4.77%E +1.09%K +1.40%G +0.067%	3.4%	2026-10-17 20:05
888sport🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -7.05%E -5.78%K -32.05%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV +0.012%E +0.003%K +0.004%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-10-17 19:55
Everygame🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.85%EV -4.77%E -3.81%K -19.06%G +0.000%	4.15I 24.10%NM 23.15%EV -1.18%E -0.284%K -0.374%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-10-17 19:58
GTbets🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 76.99%EV -5.53%E -4.46%K -23.03%G +0.000%	4.15I 24.10%NM 23.01%EV -1.18%E -0.284%K -0.374%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-10-17 20:00
DraftKings🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -4.77%E -3.81%K -19.06%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -2.37%E -0.578%K -0.764%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-10-17 19:40
Fanatics🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -4.77%E -3.81%K -19.06%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -2.37%E -0.578%K -0.764%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-10-17 20:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -4.77%E -3.81%K -19.06%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -2.37%E -0.578%K -0.764%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-10-17 14:34
BetMGM🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -4.77%E -3.81%K -19.06%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -2.37%E -0.578%K -0.764%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-10-17 20:00
BetAnything🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -4.77%E -3.81%K -19.06%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -2.37%E -0.578%K -0.764%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-10-17 19:55
Pinnacle🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 76.16%EV -2.48%E -1.94%K -8.86%G +0.000%	4.09I 24.45%NM 23.84%EV -2.61%E -0.637%K -0.844%G +0.000%	2.6%	2026-10-17 19:40
BetUS🎯	1.26I 79.37%NM 76.40%EV -4.00%E -3.18%K -15.40%G +0.000%	4.08I 24.51%NM 23.60%EV -2.85%E -0.697%K -0.924%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-10-17 19:40
Caesars🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.42%EV -4.77%E -3.81%K -19.06%G +0.000%	4.05I 24.69%NM 23.58%EV -3.56%E -0.879%K -1.17%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-10-17 18:40
Fliff🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.42%EV -4.77%E -3.81%K -19.06%G +0.000%	4.05I 24.69%NM 23.58%EV -3.56%E -0.879%K -1.17%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-10-17 20:05
Bovada🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 76.56%EV -5.53%E -4.46%K -23.03%G +0.000%	4.05I 24.69%NM 23.44%EV -3.56%E -0.879%K -1.17%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-17 20:03
Bet Right🎯	1.26I 79.37%NM 76.05%EV -4.00%E -3.18%K -15.40%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV -4.75%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-10-17 20:00
Paddy Power🎯	1.26I 79.37%NM 76.05%EV -4.00%E -3.18%K -15.40%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV -4.75%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-10-17 19:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯	1.26I 79.37%NM 76.05%EV -4.00%E -3.18%K -15.40%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV -4.75%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-10-17 19:40
Betr (AU)🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.77%E -3.81%K -19.06%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.75%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-10-17 14:40
PlayUp🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.77%E -3.81%K -19.06%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.75%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-10-17 20:05
William Hill🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.77%E -3.81%K -19.06%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.75%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-10-17 20:04
888sport (SE)🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.77%E -3.81%K -19.06%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.75%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-10-17 19:59
SportsBet🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.77%E -3.81%K -19.06%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.75%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-10-17 19:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.77%E -3.81%K -19.06%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.75%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-10-17 19:40
Coral🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.77%E -3.81%K -19.06%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.75%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-10-17 19:40
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -4.00%E -3.18%K -15.40%G +0.000%	3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -5.94%E -1.50%K -2.01%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-10-17 19:59
Betsson🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.92%EV -4.77%E -3.81%K -19.06%G +0.000%	3.94I 25.38%NM 24.08%EV -6.18%E -1.57%K -2.10%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-10-17 20:05
NordicBet🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.92%EV -4.77%E -3.81%K -19.06%G +0.000%	3.94I 25.38%NM 24.08%EV -6.18%E -1.57%K -2.10%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-10-17 20:05
FanDuel🎯	1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -3.24%E -2.55%K -12.01%G +0.000%	3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV -7.13%E -1.83%K -2.46%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-10-17 20:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -4.77%E -3.81%K -19.06%G +0.000%	3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -7.13%E -1.83%K -2.46%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-10-17 20:00
Neds🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -4.77%E -3.81%K -19.06%G +0.000%	3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -7.13%E -1.83%K -2.46%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-10-17 20:00
TAB🎯	1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -3.24%E -2.55%K -12.01%G +0.000%	3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -9.51%E -2.50%K -3.40%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-17 14:40
betano_uk🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -4.77%E -3.81%K -19.06%G +0.000%	3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -9.51%E -2.50%K -3.40%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-10-17 19:49
Bet Victor🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -4.77%E -3.81%K -19.06%G +0.000%	3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -9.51%E -2.50%K -3.40%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-10-17 19:49
ReBet🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -4.77%E -3.81%K -19.06%G +0.000%	3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -9.51%E -2.50%K -3.40%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-10-17 20:05
BetRivers🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -4.77%E -3.81%K -19.06%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -10.70%E -2.85%K -3.89%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-10-17 19:10
theScore Bet🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -1.72%E -1.33%K -5.92%G +0.000%	3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV -11.89%E -3.21%K -4.41%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-10-17 20:00
NetBet (FR)🎯	1.19I 84.03%NM 75.66%EV -9.34%E -7.85%K -49.14%G +0.000%	3.70I 27.03%NM 24.34%EV -11.89%E -3.21%K -4.41%G +0.000%	11.1%	2026-10-17 19:59
betPARX🎯	1.26I 79.37%NM 74.34%EV -4.00%E -3.18%K -15.40%G +0.000%	3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV -13.08%E -3.58%K -4.94%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-10-17 20:00
Bally Bet🎯	1.26I 79.37%NM 74.34%EV -4.00%E -3.18%K -15.40%G +0.000%	3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV -13.08%E -3.58%K -4.94%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-10-17 20:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -4.77%E -3.81%K -19.06%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -14.28%E -3.97%K -5.49%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-10-17 20:05

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	1.27I 78.74%NM 78.55%	4.65I 21.51%NM 21.45%	0.2%	2026-10-17 20:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.28I 78.13%NM 77.85%	4.50I 22.22%NM 22.15%	0.3%	2026-10-17 20:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.28I 78.13%NM 77.85%	4.50I 22.22%NM 22.15%	0.3%	2026-10-17 20:05
Matchbook◎	1.28I 78.13%NM 77.85%	4.50I 22.22%NM 22.15%	0.3%	2026-10-17 20:00
ProphetX◎	1.28I 78.13%NM 77.66%	4.45I 22.47%NM 22.34%	0.6%	2026-10-17 20:00
Kalshi◎	1.27I 78.74%NM 78.18%	4.55I 21.98%NM 21.82%	0.7%	2026-10-17 20:05
Polymarket◎	1.27I 78.74%NM 78.18%	4.55I 21.98%NM 21.82%	0.7%	2026-10-17 20:00
Smarkets◎	1.26I 79.37%NM 77.34%	4.30I 23.26%NM 22.66%	2.6%	2026-10-17 20:05
BetOpenly◎	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%	3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%	5.3%	2026-10-17 19:35

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
ATG (SE)🎯	1.42I 70.42%NM 69.43%	6.40I 15.63%NM 15.40%	6.50I 15.38%NM 15.17%	1.4%	2026-10-17 20:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 69.31%	6.25I 16.00%NM 15.53%	6.40I 15.63%NM 15.16%	3.1%	2026-10-17 20:00
Unibet (SE)🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 69.31%	6.25I 16.00%NM 15.53%	6.40I 15.63%NM 15.16%	3.1%	2026-10-17 20:00
Svenska Spel🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 69.31%	6.25I 16.00%NM 15.53%	6.40I 15.63%NM 15.16%	3.1%	2026-10-17 20:00
1xBet🎯	1.46I 68.49%NM 65.44%	5.63I 17.76%NM 16.97%	5.43I 18.42%NM 17.59%	4.7%	2026-10-17 19:59
Coolbet🎯	1.42I 70.42%NM 67.10%	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.88%	5.60I 17.86%NM 17.02%	4.9%	2026-10-17 20:00
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.68%	5.60I 17.86%NM 17.01%	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.32%	5.0%	2026-10-17 20:00
Unibet🎯	1.37I 72.99%NM 69.26%	6.10I 16.39%NM 15.56%	6.25I 16.00%NM 15.18%	5.4%	2026-10-17 20:00
Casumo🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.42%	6.10I 16.39%NM 15.48%	6.25I 16.00%NM 15.11%	5.9%	2026-10-17 20:00
Unibet (NL)🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.42%	6.10I 16.39%NM 15.48%	6.25I 16.00%NM 15.11%	5.9%	2026-10-17 20:00
TABtouch🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 69.57%	6.10I 16.39%NM 15.40%	6.25I 16.00%NM 15.03%	6.5%	2026-10-17 20:00
Grosvenor🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 69.57%	6.10I 16.39%NM 15.40%	6.25I 16.00%NM 15.03%	6.5%	2026-10-17 20:00
Tipico (DE)🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.87%	6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%	6.8%	2026-10-17 19:55
Marathon Bet🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 74.78%	8.30I 12.05%NM 11.26%	6.70I 14.93%NM 13.95%	7.0%	2026-10-17 20:05
Betway🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 64.73%	5.25I 19.05%NM 17.63%	5.25I 19.05%NM 17.63%	8.0%	2026-10-17 20:00
Winamax (DE)🎯	1.42I 70.42%NM 64.88%	5.10I 19.61%NM 18.06%	5.40I 18.52%NM 17.06%	8.5%	2026-10-17 20:00
Codere (IT)🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 66.40%	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.27%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%	9.1%	2026-10-17 19:55
picklebet_au🎯	1.42I 70.42%NM 64.45%	5.20I 19.23%NM 17.60%	5.10I 19.61%NM 17.95%	9.3%	2026-10-17 20:00
Winamax (FR)🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 64.31%	4.90I 20.41%NM 18.37%	5.20I 19.23%NM 17.31%	11.1%	2026-10-17 20:00
Betclic (FR)🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 63.87%	5.00I 20.00%NM 17.88%	4.90I 20.41%NM 18.25%	11.8%	2026-10-17 20:04
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.34I 74.63%NM 64.82%	5.40I 18.52%NM 16.09%	4.55I 21.98%NM 19.09%	15.1%	2026-10-17 19:55