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Tampa Bay Lightning v Buffalo Sabres
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Tampa Bay Lightning (Local)
Prediction 68.06%1.47fair odd
EV -2.67%
Edge -1.87%
Kelly -6.21%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.43
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.35%68.04%68.07%69.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.291.401.401.4377.52%71.31%71.43%69.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Buffalo Sabres (Visit)
Prediction 31.94%3.13fair odd
EV -0.674%
Edge -0.217%
Kelly -0.320%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.11
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.49%31.96%31.93%33.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.993.003.1136.36%33.47%33.33%32.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tampa Bay Lightning (Local): 68.06%; Buffalo Sabres (Visit): 31.94%. For Buffalo Sabres (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.13. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.11, with an expected value of -0.674%; they did not produce positive expected value.
22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -2.67%E -1.87%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV -5.78%E -1.96%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-02-28 22:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -2.67%E -1.87%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV -5.78%E -1.96%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-02-28 22:29 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -2.67%E -1.87%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV -5.78%E -1.96%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-02-28 12:09 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.13%EV -2.67%E -1.87%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.87%EV -6.74%E -2.31%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-02-28 21:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.65%EV -3.35%E -2.36%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 3.11I 32.15%NM 31.35%EV -0.674%E -0.217%K -0.320%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-02-28 20:19 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.09%EV -3.35%E -2.36%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 31.91%EV -3.23%E -1.07%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-02-28 23:53 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -3.35%E -2.36%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -4.19%E -1.40%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-02-28 23:44 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -3.35%E -2.36%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -7.38%E -2.55%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-02-28 22:29 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -3.35%E -2.36%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -10.57%E -3.78%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-02-28 23:09 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.81%EV -4.03%E -2.86%K -9.83%G +0.000% | 3.11I 32.15%NM 31.19%EV -0.674%E -0.217%K -0.320%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-02-28 19:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.81%EV -4.03%E -2.86%K -9.83%G +0.000% | 3.11I 32.15%NM 31.19%EV -0.674%E -0.217%K -0.320%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-02-28 19:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.03%EV -4.03%E -2.86%K -9.83%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.97%EV -4.19%E -1.40%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-02-28 23:39 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.03%EV -4.03%E -2.86%K -9.83%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.97%EV -4.19%E -1.40%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-02-28 15:45 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.88%EV -4.03%E -2.86%K -9.83%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 32.12%EV -4.83%E -1.62%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-02-28 23:44 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -4.03%E -2.86%K -9.83%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -7.38%E -2.55%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-02-28 21:54 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -4.03%E -2.86%K -9.83%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -7.38%E -2.55%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-02-28 21:54 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -4.71%E -3.37%K -11.78%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -0.994%E -0.320%K -0.473%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-02-28 23:54 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -4.71%E -3.37%K -11.78%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -0.994%E -0.320%K -0.473%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-02-28 23:54 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -4.71%E -3.37%K -11.78%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -0.994%E -0.320%K -0.473%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-02-28 21:05 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -4.71%E -3.37%K -11.78%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -0.994%E -0.320%K -0.473%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-02-28 23:34 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.71%E -3.37%K -11.78%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.19%E -1.40%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-02-28 16:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.71%E -3.37%K -11.78%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.19%E -1.40%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-02-28 16:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.71%E -3.37%K -11.78%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.19%E -1.40%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-02-28 16:26 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.71%E -3.37%K -11.78%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.19%E -1.40%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-02-28 22:14 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.11%EV -4.71%E -3.37%K -11.78%G +0.000% | 2.99I 33.44%NM 31.89%EV -4.51%E -1.51%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-02-28 23:44 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.71%E -3.37%K -11.78%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -5.78%E -1.96%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-28 03:00 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.71%E -3.37%K -11.78%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -7.38%E -2.55%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-02-28 23:49 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.71%E -3.37%K -11.78%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -7.38%E -2.55%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-02-28 16:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.71%E -3.37%K -11.78%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -7.38%E -2.55%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-02-28 16:30 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.69%EV -5.39%E -3.88%K -13.83%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.31%EV -2.59%E -0.849%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-02-28 21:04 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.34%EV -5.39%E -3.88%K -13.83%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -4.19%E -1.40%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-28 23:44 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.92%EV -6.07%E -4.40%K -15.98%G +0.000% | 3.06I 32.68%NM 31.08%EV -2.27%E -0.742%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-28 23:49 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -6.07%E -4.40%K -15.98%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -5.78%E -1.96%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-02-28 23:48 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -7.44%E -5.47%K -20.65%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -0.994%E -0.320%K -0.473%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-02-28 17:24 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 68.07%EV -12.20%E -9.46%K -42.07%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.93%EV -12.17%E -4.43%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-02-28 15:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.95% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 31.05% | 0.0% | 2026-02-28 23:55 |
| Novig◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 69.10% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 30.90% | 0.5% | 2026-02-28 23:54 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.97% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03% | 0.7% | 2026-02-28 23:54 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.31% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 30.69% | 0.9% | 2026-02-28 18:24 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.11% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.89% | 1.2% | 2026-02-28 22:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.11% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.89% | 1.2% | 2026-02-28 22:49 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 68.78% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.22% | 1.7% | 2026-02-28 23:54 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.93% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.07% | 2.2% | 2026-02-28 23:54 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 56.08% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.83% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.09% | 3.1% | 2026-02-28 22:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 56.08% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.83% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.09% | 3.1% | 2026-02-28 22:34 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 56.08% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.83% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.09% | 3.1% | 2026-02-28 22:34 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 56.08% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.83% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.09% | 3.1% | 2026-02-28 22:34 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.18% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.60% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.22% | 4.1% | 2026-02-28 23:49 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.20% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 23.02% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.77% | 4.7% | 2026-02-28 21:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.10% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.71% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19% | 4.9% | 2026-02-28 22:29 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.10% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.71% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19% | 4.9% | 2026-02-28 22:29 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.10% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.71% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19% | 4.9% | 2026-02-28 23:43 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.10% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.71% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19% | 4.9% | 2026-02-28 22:29 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.10% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.71% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19% | 4.9% | 2026-02-28 22:29 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.41% | 4.24I 23.58%NM 22.48% | 4.74I 21.10%NM 20.11% | 4.9% | 2026-02-28 23:54 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.78% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37% | 6.7% | 2026-02-28 23:19 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.96% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.24% | 7.0% | 2026-02-28 22:29 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.11% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.72% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.17% | 7.4% | 2026-02-28 22:29 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.09% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.91% | 8.7% | 2026-02-28 23:49 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.66% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.95% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.40% | 9.0% | 2026-02-28 23:49 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 56.24% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.84% | 9.1% | 2026-02-28 23:49 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.58% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.92% | 9.1% | 2026-02-28 23:49 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.10% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.01% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.89% | 10.0% | 2026-02-28 23:49 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 55.95% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.10% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.95% | 11.0% | 2026-02-28 23:49 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 55.95% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.10% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.95% | 11.0% | 2026-02-28 23:49 |