The School of Odds
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Seattle Kraken v Tampa Bay Lightning

Kickoff: 2026-03-18 02:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Seattle Kraken (Local)

Prediction 37.43%2.67fair odd
EV -1.93%
Edge -0.737%
Kelly -1.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.56%37.45%37.50%39.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.532.552.6242.55%39.48%39.22%38.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tampa Bay Lightning (Visit)

Prediction 62.57%1.60fair odd
EV -1.77%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -3.10%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.76%62.55%62.50%63.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.411.541.541.5770.92%65.12%64.94%63.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Seattle Kraken (Local): 37.43%; Tampa Bay Lightning (Visit): 62.57%. For Tampa Bay Lightning (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.60. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.57, with an expected value of -1.77%; they did not produce positive expected value.

22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Caesars🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.56%EV -1.93%E -0.737%K -1.19%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 63.44%EV -5.52%E -3.66%K -10.82%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-17 22:54
Everygame🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.50%EV -2.68%E -1.03%K -1.68%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 62.50%EV -2.39%E -1.53%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.6%2026-03-17 16:10
Bally Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -2.68%E -1.03%K -1.68%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -4.27%E -2.79%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-18 00:55
betPARX🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -2.68%E -1.03%K -1.68%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -4.27%E -2.79%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-18 00:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -2.68%E -1.03%K -1.68%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -4.27%E -2.79%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-16 16:49
Paddy Power🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -2.68%E -1.03%K -1.68%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -4.27%E -2.79%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-17 16:24
Fanatics🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -2.68%E -1.03%K -1.68%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -4.27%E -2.79%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-16 16:04
theScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -2.68%E -1.03%K -1.68%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -4.27%E -2.79%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-17 21:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -2.68%E -1.03%K -1.68%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -4.27%E -2.79%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-17 16:25
BetRivers🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -2.68%E -1.03%K -1.68%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -5.52%E -3.66%K -10.82%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-18 00:55
BetOnline.ag🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 37.68%EV -3.43%E -1.33%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 62.32%EV -2.39%E -1.53%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-17 21:50
LowVig.ag🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 37.68%EV -3.43%E -1.33%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 62.32%EV -2.39%E -1.53%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-17 21:50
FanDuel🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 37.07%EV -3.43%E -1.33%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.93%EV -4.89%E -3.22%K -9.41%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-17 21:55
Pinnacle🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 37.92%EV -3.80%E -1.48%K -2.42%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 62.08%EV -1.77%E -1.12%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.6%2026-03-18 00:55
SportsBet🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 37.01%EV -3.80%E -1.48%K -2.42%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.99%EV -5.52%E -3.66%K -10.82%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-18 00:55
BetUS🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -4.55%E -1.79%K -2.94%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -2.39%E -1.53%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-17 21:49
Bovada🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -4.55%E -1.79%K -2.94%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -2.39%E -1.53%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-18 00:54
BetAnything🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -4.55%E -1.79%K -2.94%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -2.39%E -1.53%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-18 00:55
Bet Right🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -4.55%E -1.79%K -2.94%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -3.64%E -2.37%K -6.75%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-17 23:10
GTbets🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -4.55%E -1.79%K -2.94%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -3.64%E -2.37%K -6.75%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-17 21:55
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -4.55%E -1.79%K -2.94%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -3.64%E -2.37%K -6.75%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-17 21:50
Fliff🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -4.55%E -1.79%K -2.94%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -5.52%E -3.66%K -10.82%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-17 17:20
DraftKings🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 37.75%EV -4.93%E -1.94%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 62.25%EV -3.64%E -2.37%K -6.75%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-17 21:55
MyBookie.ag🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 37.44%EV -4.93%E -1.94%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.56%EV -4.89%E -3.22%K -9.41%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-18 00:55
ReBet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.78%EV -5.67%E -2.25%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.22%EV -4.27%E -2.79%K -8.05%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-18 00:55
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -6.42%E -2.57%K -4.28%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -3.02%E -1.95%K -5.49%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-17 22:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -6.42%E -2.57%K -4.28%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -3.02%E -1.95%K -5.49%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-17 22:00
BetMGM🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -6.42%E -2.57%K -4.28%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -3.64%E -2.37%K -6.75%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-17 22:00
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.42%E -2.57%K -4.28%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.27%E -2.79%K -8.05%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-18 00:54
Bet Victor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.42%E -2.57%K -4.28%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.27%E -2.79%K -8.05%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-18 00:55
Betsson🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 38.40%EV -7.55%E -3.06%K -5.13%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.60%EV -3.64%E -2.37%K -6.75%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-18 00:54
NordicBet🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 38.40%EV -7.55%E -3.06%K -5.13%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.60%EV -3.64%E -2.37%K -6.75%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-18 00:55
PlayUp🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -8.30%E -3.39%K -5.72%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -3.02%E -1.95%K -5.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-18 00:55
Betr (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -8.30%E -3.39%K -5.72%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -3.02%E -1.95%K -5.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-18 00:55
TAB🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -10.17%E -4.24%K -7.26%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -3.02%E -1.95%K -5.49%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-18 00:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -10.17%E -4.24%K -7.26%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -3.02%E -1.95%K -5.49%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-17 22:00
Neds🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -10.17%E -4.24%K -7.26%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -3.02%E -1.95%K -5.49%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-17 22:00
NetBet (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.50%EV -12.04%E -5.12%K -8.92%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 62.50%EV -11.78%E -8.35%K -28.72%G +0.000%13.5%2026-03-18 00:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎2.72I 36.76%NM 37.04%1.60I 62.50%NM 62.96%-0.7%2026-03-18 00:55
ProphetX◎2.70I 37.04%NM 36.92%1.58I 63.29%NM 63.08%0.3%2026-03-17 22:55
Novig◎2.67I 37.45%NM 37.32%1.59I 62.89%NM 62.68%0.3%2026-03-17 23:20
Kalshi◎2.63I 38.02%NM 37.68%1.59I 62.89%NM 62.32%0.9%2026-03-17 09:30
Polymarket◎2.63I 38.02%NM 37.68%1.59I 62.89%NM 62.32%0.9%2026-03-17 22:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.64I 37.88%NM 37.44%1.58I 63.29%NM 62.56%1.2%2026-03-18 00:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.64I 37.88%NM 37.44%1.58I 63.29%NM 62.56%1.2%2026-03-17 23:30
Matchbook◎2.64I 37.88%NM 37.44%1.58I 63.29%NM 62.56%1.2%2026-03-18 00:00
Smarkets◎2.60I 38.46%NM 37.65%1.57I 63.69%NM 62.35%2.2%2026-03-18 00:55

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯3.44I 29.07%NM 28.21%1.94I 51.55%NM 50.03%4.46I 22.42%NM 21.76%3.0%2026-03-18 00:55
Unibet (SE)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 26.57%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.87%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.56%3.1%2026-03-18 00:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 26.57%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.87%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.56%3.1%2026-03-18 00:55
Svenska Spel🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 26.57%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.87%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.56%3.1%2026-03-18 00:55
ATG (SE)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 26.57%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.87%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.56%3.1%2026-03-18 00:55
Unibet (UK)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.63%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.89%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.49%3.4%2026-03-18 00:55
Marathon Bet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 28.15%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.10%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.75%4.5%2026-03-18 00:54
Unibet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.61%5.1%2026-03-18 00:55
Unibet (NL)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.61%5.1%2026-03-18 00:55
Grosvenor🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.61%5.1%2026-03-18 00:55
Casumo🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.61%5.1%2026-03-18 00:55
Coolbet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.56%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.84%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.61%5.2%2026-03-18 00:55
TABtouch🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.47%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.92%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.60%6.4%2026-03-18 00:55
Tipico (DE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.99%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%6.9%2026-03-17 20:55
LeoVegas🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.74%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.66%7.4%2026-03-18 00:55
Betway🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.79%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%7.6%2026-03-18 00:55
Parions Sport (FR)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.71%1.84I 54.35%NM 50.45%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.84%7.7%2026-03-18 00:55
Winamax (DE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.42%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.34%9.0%2026-03-18 00:55
Betclic (FR)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.79%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.38%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.83%9.1%2026-03-18 00:54
Codere (IT)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.79%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.38%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.83%9.1%2026-03-18 00:55
Unibet (FR)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%1.81I 55.25%NM 50.17%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.88%10.1%2026-03-18 00:55
Winamax (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.43%1.76I 56.82%NM 50.07%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.50%13.5%2026-03-18 00:55