Language:English
Pittsburgh Penguins v Philadelphia Flyers
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Pittsburgh Penguins (Local)
Prediction 56.76%1.76fair odd
EV -1.24%
Edge -0.713%
Kelly -1.68%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.74
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.15%56.78%56.78%57.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.681.681.7464.52%59.48%59.52%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Philadelphia Flyers (Visit)
Prediction 43.24%2.31fair odd
EV -1.41%
Edge -0.618%
Kelly -1.10%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.28
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.31%43.22%43.22%44.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.022.212.212.2849.50%45.30%45.25%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Pittsburgh Penguins (Local): 56.76%; Philadelphia Flyers (Visit): 43.24%. For Pittsburgh Penguins (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.76. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.74, with an expected value of -1.24%; they did not produce positive expected value.
20 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| betPARX🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -1.24%E -0.713%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -7.46%E -3.49%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-19 00:05 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -1.24%E -0.713%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -7.46%E -3.49%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-19 00:05 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 57.14%EV -2.94%E -1.72%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.86%EV -1.41%E -0.618%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 2.3% | 2026-04-19 00:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.93%EV -2.94%E -1.72%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.07%EV -2.27%E -1.01%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-04-18 22:35 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.96%EV -3.51%E -2.07%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 43.04%EV -2.71%E -1.20%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-04-18 14:44 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.96%EV -3.51%E -2.07%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 43.04%EV -2.71%E -1.20%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-04-18 14:45 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.52%EV -3.51%E -2.07%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 2.21I 45.25%NM 43.48%EV -4.44%E -2.01%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-18 23:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.51%E -2.07%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.87%E -2.21%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-18 15:49 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.51%E -2.07%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.87%E -2.21%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-18 15:50 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -4.08%E -2.41%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -2.71%E -1.20%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-04-16 17:48 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -4.08%E -2.41%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -2.71%E -1.20%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-04-18 07:44 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -4.08%E -2.41%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -2.71%E -1.20%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-04-17 02:29 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.78%EV -4.08%E -2.41%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.22%EV -4.00%E -1.80%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-19 00:19 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -4.08%E -2.41%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -4.87%E -2.21%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-17 14:44 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -4.08%E -2.41%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -4.87%E -2.21%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-18 15:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.47%EV -4.65%E -2.77%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 42.53%EV -1.84%E -0.811%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-04-19 00:20 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -4.65%E -2.77%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV -3.14%E -1.40%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-18 23:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -4.65%E -2.77%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV -3.14%E -1.40%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-18 23:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.92%EV -4.65%E -2.77%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.08%EV -4.00%E -1.80%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-19 00:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.65%E -2.77%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.87%E -2.21%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-18 23:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -4.65%E -2.77%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -5.73%E -2.63%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-19 00:04 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -4.65%E -2.77%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -5.73%E -2.63%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-19 00:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -4.65%E -2.77%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -7.03%E -3.27%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-18 15:49 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -4.65%E -2.77%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -7.03%E -3.27%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-18 15:49 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -4.65%E -2.77%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -7.03%E -3.27%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-17 07:29 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -5.21%E -3.12%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -2.71%E -1.20%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-19 00:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -5.21%E -3.12%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -2.71%E -1.20%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-19 00:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.96%EV -5.21%E -3.12%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 2.21I 45.25%NM 43.04%EV -4.44%E -2.01%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-19 00:15 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.96%EV -5.21%E -3.12%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 2.21I 45.25%NM 43.04%EV -4.44%E -2.01%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-18 23:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.21%E -3.12%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.87%E -2.21%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-17 09:30 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.35%E -3.85%K -9.77%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -2.71%E -1.20%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-18 23:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.35%E -3.85%K -9.77%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -2.71%E -1.20%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-18 23:55 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.35%E -3.85%K -9.77%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -4.87%E -2.21%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-19 00:10 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.35%E -3.85%K -9.77%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.03%E -3.27%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-19 00:10 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 56.58%EV -12.03%E -7.76%K -21.86%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 43.42%EV -12.65%E -6.26%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-04-18 13:34 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 57.21% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.79% | -0.1% | 2026-04-18 23:55 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.77I 56.50%NM 56.08% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.92% | 0.7% | 2026-04-19 00:20 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52% | 1.2% | 2026-04-19 00:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.21% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.79% | 1.6% | 2026-04-19 00:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.21% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.79% | 1.6% | 2026-04-19 00:20 |
| Novig◎ | 1.78I 56.18%NM 55.28% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.72% | 1.6% | 2026-04-19 00:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 56.57% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.43% | 2.8% | 2026-04-19 00:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 57.07% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 42.93% | 3.1% | 2026-04-19 00:15 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (20)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.68% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 34.15% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.17% | 2.8% | 2026-04-19 00:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.68% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 34.15% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.17% | 2.8% | 2026-04-19 00:05 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.68% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 34.15% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.17% | 2.8% | 2026-04-19 00:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.68% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 34.15% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.17% | 2.8% | 2026-04-19 00:05 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.05% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 32.48% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.47% | 4.7% | 2026-04-18 22:45 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.43% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.89% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.68% | 4.8% | 2026-04-18 23:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.73% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.03% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.24% | 4.9% | 2026-04-19 00:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.73% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.03% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.24% | 4.9% | 2026-04-19 00:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.73% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.03% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.24% | 4.9% | 2026-04-19 00:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.73% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.03% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.24% | 4.9% | 2026-04-19 00:05 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.11I 47.39%NM 45.08% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.80% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.12% | 5.1% | 2026-04-17 19:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.80% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.24% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96% | 6.2% | 2026-04-19 00:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.80% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.83% | 6.5% | 2026-04-18 20:04 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.42% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.67% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.91% | 7.4% | 2026-04-19 00:15 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.90% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.53% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.56% | 7.8% | 2026-04-19 00:18 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.51% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.32% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17% | 7.9% | 2026-04-19 00:05 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.06% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.41% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.53% | 8.3% | 2026-04-18 23:49 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.65% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.61% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74% | 9.5% | 2026-04-19 00:10 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.41% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.44% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.15% | 10.1% | 2026-04-19 00:10 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 42.73% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.18% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.09% | 12.5% | 2026-04-19 00:05 |