The School of Odds
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Pittsburgh Penguins v Florida Panthers

Kickoff: 2026-04-04 21:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Pittsburgh Penguins (Local)

Prediction 67.44%1.48fair odd
EV -2.22%
Edge -1.53%
Kelly -4.93%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.06%67.44%67.64%68.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.421.421.4576.92%70.55%70.42%68.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Florida Panthers (Visit)

Prediction 32.56%3.07fair odd
EV -0.681%
Edge -0.223%
Kelly -0.332%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.46%32.56%32.36%34.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.912.913.0537.04%34.31%34.36%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Pittsburgh Penguins (Local): 67.44%; Florida Panthers (Visit): 32.56%. For Florida Panthers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.07. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.05, with an expected value of -0.681%; they did not produce positive expected value.

22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
TAB🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -2.22%E -1.53%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -12.08%E -4.47%K -7.11%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-03 19:39
Pinnacle🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 67.64%EV -2.89%E -2.01%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.01I 33.22%NM 32.36%EV -1.98%E -0.659%K -0.987%G +0.000%2.7%2026-04-04 19:54
LowVig.ag🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 67.42%EV -2.89%E -2.01%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.58%EV -2.96%E -0.994%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-04 20:24
BetOnline.ag🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 67.42%EV -2.89%E -2.01%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.58%EV -2.96%E -0.994%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-04 20:24
ReBet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.97%EV -2.89%E -2.01%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.03%EV -4.91%E -1.68%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-04 20:05
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.67%EV -2.89%E -2.01%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.33%EV -6.22%E -2.16%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-04 19:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.67%EV -2.89%E -2.01%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.33%EV -6.22%E -2.16%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-04 19:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -2.89%E -2.01%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -7.19%E -2.52%K -3.89%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-04 20:59
Everygame🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -2.89%E -2.01%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -7.19%E -2.52%K -3.89%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-04 17:44
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -2.89%E -2.01%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -10.45%E -3.80%K -5.97%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-03 18:10
theScore Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.72%EV -3.57%E -2.49%K -8.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.28%EV -2.31%E -0.770%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-04 19:19
Bovada🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -3.57%E -2.49%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV -3.94%E -1.33%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-04 19:39
BetAnything🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -3.57%E -2.49%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -5.57%E -1.92%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-04 18:54
FanDuel🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.82%EV -3.57%E -2.49%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.18%EV -6.22%E -2.16%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-04 17:29
SportsBet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -3.57%E -2.49%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -7.19%E -2.52%K -3.89%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-04 19:50
BetUS🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 68.09%EV -4.24%E -2.99%K -10.10%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.91%EV -1.33%E -0.440%K -0.656%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-04 18:49
Bet Right🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -4.24%E -2.99%K -10.10%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -3.94%E -1.33%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-04 19:34
Fanatics🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -4.24%E -2.99%K -10.10%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -5.57%E -1.92%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-04 17:20
PlayUp🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -4.24%E -2.99%K -10.10%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -5.57%E -1.92%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-04 19:10
MyBookie.ag🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.05%EV -4.24%E -2.99%K -10.10%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 32.95%EV -5.89%E -2.04%K -3.12%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-04 20:13
NordicBet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.82%EV -4.24%E -2.99%K -10.10%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.18%EV -6.87%E -2.40%K -3.69%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-04 19:05
Betsson🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.82%EV -4.24%E -2.99%K -10.10%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.18%EV -6.87%E -2.40%K -3.69%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-04 19:10
Bally Bet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 68.03%EV -4.91%E -3.49%K -11.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.97%EV -2.31%E -0.770%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-04 19:29
betPARX🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 68.03%EV -4.91%E -3.49%K -11.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.97%EV -2.31%E -0.770%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-04 19:30
DraftKings🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 68.03%EV -4.91%E -3.49%K -11.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.97%EV -2.31%E -0.770%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-04 18:54
BetRivers🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -4.91%E -3.49%K -11.99%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -3.94%E -1.33%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-04 19:30
GTbets🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -4.91%E -3.49%K -11.99%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -3.94%E -1.33%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-04 18:54
Fliff🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -4.91%E -3.49%K -11.99%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -3.94%E -1.33%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-04 21:04
Caesars🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -5.59%E -3.99%K -13.97%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV -0.681%E -0.223%K -0.332%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-04 20:24
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.59%E -3.99%K -13.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.31%E -0.770%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-04 19:00
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.59%E -3.99%K -13.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.31%E -0.770%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-04 19:00
BetMGM🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.59%E -3.99%K -13.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.31%E -0.770%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-04 18:58
Betr (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.59%E -3.99%K -13.97%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -3.94%E -1.33%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-04 18:54
Neds🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.59%E -3.99%K -13.97%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.57%E -1.92%K -2.93%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-04 19:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.59%E -3.99%K -13.97%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.57%E -1.92%K -2.93%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-04 19:00
Bet Victor🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -5.59%E -3.99%K -13.97%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -8.82%E -3.15%K -4.90%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 20:50
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -5.59%E -3.99%K -13.97%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -8.82%E -3.15%K -4.90%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 21:00
NetBet (FR)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 67.66%EV -12.33%E -9.49%K -41.11%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 32.34%EV -11.43%E -4.20%K -6.64%G +0.000%13.7%2026-04-04 19:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.49I 67.11%NM 67.25%3.06I 32.68%NM 32.75%-0.2%2026-04-04 20:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.47I 68.03%NM 67.48%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.52%0.8%2026-04-04 20:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.47I 68.03%NM 67.48%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.52%0.8%2026-04-04 20:55
Polymarket◎1.49I 67.11%NM 66.37%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.63%1.1%2026-04-04 21:04
Matchbook◎1.46I 68.49%NM 67.63%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.37%1.3%2026-04-04 21:05
Novig◎1.46I 68.49%NM 67.41%3.02I 33.11%NM 32.59%1.6%2026-04-04 21:05
Kalshi◎1.45I 68.97%NM 67.63%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.37%2.0%2026-04-04 18:04
ProphetX◎1.45I 68.97%NM 67.42%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.58%2.3%2026-04-04 21:00
Smarkets◎1.44I 69.44%NM 67.42%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.58%3.0%2026-04-04 21:05

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.81%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.08%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.12%2.9%2026-04-04 19:29
Unibet (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.81%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.08%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.12%2.9%2026-04-04 19:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.81%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.08%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.12%2.9%2026-04-04 20:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.81%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.08%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.12%2.9%2026-04-04 19:30
Unibet (UK)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.90%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.32%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.78%4.6%2026-04-04 21:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.25%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.20%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.55%4.6%2026-04-04 19:45
1xBet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.78%4.03I 24.81%NM 23.67%4.64I 21.55%NM 20.56%4.8%2026-04-04 20:54
Unibet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.69%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.15%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.16%5.0%2026-04-04 19:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.69%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.15%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.16%5.0%2026-04-04 19:30
Grosvenor🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.69%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.15%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.16%5.0%2026-04-04 19:30
Casumo🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.69%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.15%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.16%5.0%2026-04-04 19:30
Coolbet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.89%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.46%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.65%5.3%2026-04-04 19:34
TABtouch🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.57%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.09%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.34%6.5%2026-04-04 19:29
Tipico (DE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.16%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.39%6.6%2026-04-04 20:30
Betway🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.91%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%7.1%2026-04-04 20:58
LeoVegas🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.71%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.15%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%7.5%2026-04-04 19:30
Unibet (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.17%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.06%7.9%2026-04-04 20:50
Codere (IT)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.15%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.92%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%8.6%2026-04-04 19:34
Winamax (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.47%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.61%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%8.6%2026-04-04 21:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.38%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%8.8%2026-04-04 21:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.18%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.65%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.17%9.8%2026-04-04 21:04
PMU (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 56.77%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.14%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.09%12.9%2026-04-04 19:30