The School of Odds
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Philadelphia Flyers v Ottawa Senators

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 23:17 UTC

Final: Philadelphia Flyers 3–1 Ottawa Senators

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

40 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Philadelphia Flyers (Local)

Prediction 40.99%2.44fair odd
EV -1.62%
Edge -0.676%
Kelly -1.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.85%40.96%40.95%42.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.172.332.342.4046.08%42.97%42.64%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ottawa Senators (Visit)

Prediction 59.01%1.69fair odd
EV -2.04%
Edge -1.23%
Kelly -3.10%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.69%59.04%59.05%60.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.621.621.6665.36%61.78%61.73%60.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Philadelphia Flyers (Local): 40.99%; Ottawa Senators (Visit): 59.01%. For Philadelphia Flyers (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.44. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.40, with an expected value of -1.62%; they did not produce positive expected value.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Everygame🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -1.62%E -0.676%K -1.16%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -4.40%E -2.72%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-17 22:59
DraftKings🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -1.62%E -0.676%K -1.16%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -5.58%E -3.49%K -9.31%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-17 22:54
Caesars🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -1.62%E -0.676%K -1.16%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -6.18%E -3.88%K -10.47%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-17 22:55
LowVig.ag🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.80%EV -2.44%E -1.03%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 59.20%EV -3.22%E -1.97%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.0%2026-10-17 23:07
BetOnline.ag🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.80%EV -2.44%E -1.03%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 59.20%EV -3.22%E -1.97%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.0%2026-10-17 23:05
BetAnything🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.65%EV -2.44%E -1.03%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 59.35%EV -3.81%E -2.34%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-17 22:50
BetUS🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.50%EV -2.44%E -1.03%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.50%EV -4.40%E -2.72%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-17 22:50
betPARX🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.35%EV -2.44%E -1.03%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.65%EV -4.99%E -3.10%K -8.19%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-17 23:00
Pinnacle🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 41.19%EV -2.85%E -1.20%K -2.08%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 58.81%EV -2.04%E -1.23%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.4%2026-10-17 17:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 40.30%EV -2.85%E -1.20%K -2.08%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.70%EV -5.58%E -3.49%K -9.31%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-17 22:00
Coral🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 40.30%EV -2.85%E -1.20%K -2.08%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.70%EV -5.58%E -3.49%K -9.31%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-17 22:00
theScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -3.67%E -1.56%K -2.72%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -2.63%E -1.60%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-17 22:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -3.67%E -1.56%K -2.72%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 59.05%EV -3.81%E -2.34%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-17 21:50
Bovada🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.67%E -1.56%K -2.72%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.40%E -2.72%K -7.10%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-17 21:19
Paddy Power🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.67%E -1.56%K -2.72%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.40%E -2.72%K -7.10%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-17 22:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.67%E -1.56%K -2.72%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.40%E -2.72%K -7.10%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-17 22:00
Fanatics🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -3.67%E -1.56%K -2.72%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.99%E -3.10%K -8.19%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-17 22:54
BetMGM🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -3.67%E -1.56%K -2.72%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.99%E -3.10%K -8.19%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-17 22:00
Fliff🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -3.67%E -1.56%K -2.72%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.99%E -3.10%K -8.19%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-17 23:00
Betr (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -3.67%E -1.56%K -2.72%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.58%E -3.49%K -9.31%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-17 22:54
Bet Right🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 41.06%EV -4.08%E -1.74%K -3.05%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.94%EV -3.81%E -2.34%K -6.05%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-17 22:55
FanDuel🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 40.91%EV -4.08%E -1.74%K -3.05%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.09%EV -4.40%E -2.72%K -7.10%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-17 21:59
SportsBet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -4.49%E -1.93%K -3.38%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -4.99%E -3.10%K -8.19%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-17 22:00
Bally Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.82%EV -4.90%E -2.11%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.18%EV -5.58%E -3.49%K -9.31%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-17 23:15
PlayUp🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -5.72%E -2.49%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -3.81%E -2.34%K -6.05%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-17 22:55
TAB🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.72%E -2.49%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.40%E -2.72%K -7.10%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-17 22:55
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.72%E -2.49%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.40%E -2.72%K -7.10%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-17 21:40
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.72%E -2.49%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.99%E -3.10%K -8.19%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-17 21:40
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.72%E -2.49%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.99%E -3.10%K -8.19%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-17 21:40
Neds🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.72%E -2.49%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.58%E -3.49%K -9.31%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-17 22:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.72%E -2.49%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.58%E -3.49%K -9.31%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-17 22:00
NordicBet🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 41.43%EV -6.13%E -2.68%K -4.75%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.57%EV -4.40%E -2.72%K -7.10%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-17 22:54
Betsson🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 41.43%EV -6.13%E -2.68%K -4.75%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.57%EV -4.40%E -2.72%K -7.10%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-17 22:54
GTbets🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 41.94%EV -6.95%E -3.06%K -5.47%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.06%EV -3.22%E -1.97%K -5.04%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-17 23:10
MyBookie.ag🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 41.94%EV -6.95%E -3.06%K -5.47%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.06%EV -3.22%E -1.97%K -5.04%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-17 22:55
betano_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -7.77%E -3.45%K -6.22%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -2.63%E -1.60%K -4.05%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-17 23:14
Bet Victor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -7.77%E -3.45%K -6.22%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -2.63%E -1.60%K -4.05%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-17 23:14
ReBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -7.77%E -3.45%K -6.22%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -2.63%E -1.60%K -4.05%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-17 23:15
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -7.77%E -3.45%K -6.22%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -4.40%E -2.72%K -7.10%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-17 23:15
NetBet (FR)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.35%EV -11.05%E -5.09%K -9.44%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.65%EV -9.72%E -6.35%K -18.33%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-17 22:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎2.50I 40.00%NM 40.05%1.67I 59.88%NM 59.95%-0.1%2026-10-17 22:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.40I 41.67%NM 41.46%1.70I 58.82%NM 58.54%0.5%2026-10-17 23:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.40I 41.67%NM 41.46%1.70I 58.82%NM 58.54%0.5%2026-10-17 23:15
ProphetX◎2.40I 41.67%NM 41.46%1.70I 58.82%NM 58.54%0.5%2026-10-17 23:10
Novig◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.78%1.68I 59.52%NM 59.22%0.5%2026-10-17 23:05
Matchbook◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.67%1.70I 58.82%NM 58.33%0.8%2026-10-17 23:15
Kalshi◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%0.9%2026-10-17 19:30
Polymarket◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%0.9%2026-10-17 15:50
Smarkets◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.09%1.66I 60.24%NM 58.91%2.3%2026-10-17 23:10

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Casumo🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 29.34%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.26%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.40%1.7%2026-10-17 23:15
Unibet (SE)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 29.34%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.26%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.40%1.7%2026-10-17 23:15
Svenska Spel🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 29.34%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.26%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.40%1.7%2026-10-17 23:15
ATG (SE)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 29.34%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.26%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.40%1.7%2026-10-17 23:00
Unibet (NL)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 29.35%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.02%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.63%3.2%2026-10-17 23:15
TABtouch🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.53%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.05%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.41%4.2%2026-10-17 23:15
Grosvenor🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.53%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.05%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.41%4.2%2026-10-17 23:15
Unibet (UK)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.34%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.17%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.49%4.6%2026-10-17 23:15
1xBet🎯3.07I 32.57%NM 31.09%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.34%4.23I 23.64%NM 22.57%4.8%2026-10-17 22:59
Coolbet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.47%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.48%5.9%2026-10-17 23:15
Tipico (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.25%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.88%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.87%6.6%2026-10-17 22:54
Marathon Bet🎯2.91I 34.36%NM 32.13%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.61%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.26%7.0%2026-10-17 23:10
Unibet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.44%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.08%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.48%7.8%2026-10-17 23:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.37%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.20%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.42%8.1%2026-10-17 23:15
Winamax (DE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.84%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.17%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%8.3%2026-10-17 23:15
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.15%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%8.3%2026-10-17 23:15
Codere (IT)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.11%2.01I 49.75%NM 45.66%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.23%9.0%2026-10-17 22:55
picklebet_au🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.67%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%9.5%2026-10-17 23:15
Winamax (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.14%1.96I 51.02%NM 45.91%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.95%11.1%2026-10-17 23:15
Betclic (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.33%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.78%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.89%12.0%2026-10-17 23:13
Unibet (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.10%1.92I 52.08%NM 45.36%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.54%14.8%2026-10-17 22:50