The School of Odds
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Ottawa Senators v Pittsburgh Penguins

Kickoff: 2026-03-26 23:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ottawa Senators (Local)

Prediction 57.34%1.74fair odd
EV -3.10%
Edge -1.83%
Kelly -4.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.28%57.40%57.40%58.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.671.671.6965.36%60.01%59.88%59.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pittsburgh Penguins (Visit)

Prediction 42.66%2.34fair odd
EV -1.45%
Edge -0.630%
Kelly -1.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.77%42.60%42.60%43.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.072.242.252.3148.31%44.67%44.44%43.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ottawa Senators (Local): 57.34%; Pittsburgh Penguins (Visit): 42.66%. For Pittsburgh Penguins (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.34. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.31, with an expected value of -1.45%; they did not produce positive expected value.

22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.75%EV -3.10%E -1.83%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 42.25%EV -1.45%E -0.630%K -1.11%G +0.000%2.5%2026-03-26 23:05
BetOnline.ag🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.32%EV -3.10%E -1.83%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 42.68%EV -3.16%E -1.39%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-26 23:05
LowVig.ag🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.32%EV -3.10%E -1.83%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 42.68%EV -3.16%E -1.39%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-26 23:04
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.10%E -1.83%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -4.01%E -1.78%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-26 23:04
GTbets🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.10%E -1.83%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -4.01%E -1.78%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-26 23:05
BetUS🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.10%E -1.83%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -4.01%E -1.78%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-26 23:04
BetAnything🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.10%E -1.83%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -4.01%E -1.78%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-26 23:04
Everygame🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.10%E -1.83%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -4.01%E -1.78%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-26 23:05
theScore Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.10%E -1.83%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -4.01%E -1.78%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-26 23:05
Bovada🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.47%EV -3.67%E -2.18%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 42.53%EV -3.16%E -1.39%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-26 23:03
ReBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -3.67%E -2.18%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -4.01%E -1.78%K -3.21%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-26 22:59
DraftKings🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -3.67%E -2.18%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV -4.44%E -1.98%K -3.58%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-26 23:04
PlayUp🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -3.67%E -2.18%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -6.15%E -2.79%K -5.12%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-26 23:05
Bet Right🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.51%EV -4.24%E -2.54%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.49%EV -3.59%E -1.59%K -2.85%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-26 23:04
Caesars🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.51%EV -4.24%E -2.54%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.49%EV -3.59%E -1.59%K -2.85%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-26 23:03
Fanatics🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.24%E -2.54%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -4.01%E -1.78%K -3.21%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-26 23:05
FanDuel🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.24%E -2.54%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -4.01%E -1.78%K -3.21%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-26 23:04
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.24%E -2.54%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -4.01%E -1.78%K -3.21%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-26 23:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.24%E -2.54%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -4.01%E -1.78%K -3.21%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-26 23:04
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.24%E -2.54%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -4.01%E -1.78%K -3.21%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-26 23:04
BetMGM🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.24%E -2.54%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -4.01%E -1.78%K -3.21%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-26 23:05
Coral🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.24%E -2.54%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -4.01%E -1.78%K -3.21%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-26 23:05
MyBookie.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.07%EV -4.24%E -2.54%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.93%EV -5.29%E -2.38%K -4.34%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-26 23:04
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.24%E -2.54%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.15%E -2.79%K -5.12%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-26 23:05
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -4.24%E -2.54%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -8.28%E -3.85%K -7.20%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-26 23:05
SportsBet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -4.82%E -2.90%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -4.87%E -2.18%K -3.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-26 23:04
NordicBet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.22%EV -4.82%E -2.90%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.78%EV -5.29%E -2.38%K -4.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-26 23:05
Betsson🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.22%EV -4.82%E -2.90%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.78%EV -5.29%E -2.38%K -4.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-26 23:05
betPARX🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -5.39%E -3.27%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -1.88%E -0.818%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-26 23:05
Bally Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -5.39%E -3.27%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -1.88%E -0.818%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-26 23:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.39%E -3.27%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.01%E -1.78%K -3.21%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-26 23:04
Fliff🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.39%E -3.27%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.01%E -1.78%K -3.21%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-26 23:05
TAB🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.39%E -3.27%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -6.15%E -2.79%K -5.12%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-26 23:05
Bet Victor🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.39%E -3.27%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -6.15%E -2.79%K -5.12%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-26 23:03
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.39%E -3.27%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -6.15%E -2.79%K -5.12%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-26 23:05
Neds🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.39%E -3.27%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -6.15%E -2.79%K -5.12%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-26 23:05
BetRivers🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -5.96%E -3.64%K -9.32%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -2.73%E -1.20%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-26 22:57
NetBet (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.50%EV -12.27%E -8.02%K -23.15%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 42.50%EV -11.69%E -5.65%K -10.93%G +0.000%13.7%2026-03-26 23:01
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.72I 58.14%NM 58.05%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.95%0.2%2026-03-26 22:59
ProphetX◎1.74I 57.47%NM 57.14%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.86%0.6%2026-03-26 23:05
Kalshi◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.53%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.47%1.1%2026-03-26 23:05
Polymarket◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.53%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.47%1.1%2026-03-26 23:04
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.71I 58.48%NM 57.57%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.43%1.6%2026-03-26 23:05
Novig◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.21%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.79%1.6%2026-03-26 23:03
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.71I 58.48%NM 57.36%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.64%2.0%2026-03-26 23:05
Matchbook◎1.70I 58.82%NM 57.50%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.50%2.3%2026-03-26 23:05
Smarkets◎1.70I 58.82%NM 57.29%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.71%2.7%2026-03-26 23:05

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.64%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.80%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.56%3.1%2026-03-26 23:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.64%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.80%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.56%3.1%2026-03-26 23:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.64%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.80%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.56%3.1%2026-03-26 23:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.64%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.80%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.56%3.1%2026-03-26 23:04
Unibet (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.90%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.68%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.42%3.7%2026-03-26 23:04
Coolbet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.93%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.32%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.75%4.7%2026-03-26 23:04
Marathon Bet🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 45.26%2.96I 33.78%NM 32.27%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.47%4.7%2026-03-26 22:59
1xBet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 46.34%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.61%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.05%4.8%2026-03-26 22:59
Unibet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.41%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.04%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.54%5.6%2026-03-26 23:05
Casumo🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.41%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.04%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.54%5.6%2026-03-26 23:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.41%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.04%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.54%5.6%2026-03-26 23:04
Grosvenor🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.41%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.04%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.54%5.6%2026-03-26 23:04
TABtouch🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.66%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.44%6.1%2026-03-26 23:05
Tipico (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.80%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.30%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%6.5%2026-03-26 23:05
LeoVegas🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.42%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.94%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%7.7%2026-03-26 23:05
Betway🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.89%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.65%8.7%2026-03-26 23:04
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.81%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.23%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%8.9%2026-03-26 22:59
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.81%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.23%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%8.9%2026-03-26 22:59
Winamax (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.83%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.33%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.83%9.1%2026-03-26 23:05
Codere (IT)🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 45.05%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.09%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%9.3%2026-03-26 23:05
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.65%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.61%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%9.5%2026-03-26 23:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 45.76%2.73I 36.63%NM 33.02%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.21%10.9%2026-03-26 23:05