默认模型四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

New Jersey Devils v Philadelphia Flyers

开赛时间： 2026-10-01 23:09 UTC

最终结果： New Jersey Devils 3–2 Philadelphia Flyers

收盘赔率 — 按所选模型，根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始，因此这些并非实时数据。依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →

胜负盘

38 家博彩公司 (13 家纳入分析 )

62%

38%

模型估计的各赛果概率：四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

New Jersey Devils (主队)

预测 61.63%1.62公平赔率

EV -2.00%

优势 -1.26%

Kelly -3.39%

增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 1.59

博彩公司预测分布

60.61%61.63%61.58%64.44%最小值均值中位数最大值

赔率分布

1.451.551.551.5968.97%64.65%64.52%62.89%最小值均值中位数最大值

Philadelphia Flyers (客队)

预测 38.37%2.61公平赔率

EV +3.59%

优势 +1.33%

Kelly +2.11%

增长率 +0.076%

假设最高赔率为 2.70

博彩公司预测分布

35.56%38.37%38.42%39.39%最小值均值中位数最大值

赔率分布

2.352.502.502.7042.55%40.05%40.00%37.04%最小值均值中位数最大值

按开赛前最后一组赔率，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为：New Jersey Devils (主队)：61.63%；Philadelphia Flyers (客队)：38.37%。对于“Philadelphia Flyers (客队)”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为2.61。当时有2家博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率；最佳赔率为2.70，对应+3.59%的正期望值。

有 21 家博彩公司为该盘口提供了不同数量的选项（3 个赛果，而分析采用 2 个赛果）。由于这一差异，应谨慎看待分析结果。

博彩公司赔率 (38 家博彩公司)

我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。

博彩公司	主队	客队 ▼	利润率	更新时间
betPARX🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -8.17%E -5.48%K -16.66%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV +3.59%E +1.33%K +2.11%G +0.076%	4.2%	2026-10-01 23:00
Bally Bet🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -8.17%E -5.48%K -16.66%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV +3.59%E +1.33%K +2.11%G +0.076%	4.2%	2026-10-01 23:05
Everygame🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 62.50%EV -3.85%E -2.47%K -6.88%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 37.50%EV -0.248%E -0.096%K -0.155%G +0.000%	2.6%	2026-10-01 22:39
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -5.70%E -3.73%K -10.75%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -0.248%E -0.096%K -0.155%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-10-01 23:05
Pinnacle🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 61.99%EV -3.23%E -2.06%K -5.67%G +0.000%	2.56I 39.06%NM 38.01%EV -1.78%E -0.696%K -1.14%G +0.000%	2.8%	2026-10-01 22:30
LowVig.ag🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 62.14%EV -3.85%E -2.47%K -6.88%G +0.000%	2.56I 39.06%NM 37.86%EV -1.78%E -0.696%K -1.14%G +0.000%	3.2%	2026-10-01 23:05
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 62.14%EV -3.85%E -2.47%K -6.88%G +0.000%	2.56I 39.06%NM 37.86%EV -1.78%E -0.696%K -1.14%G +0.000%	3.2%	2026-10-01 23:05
BetAnything🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -3.85%E -2.47%K -6.88%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -2.17%E -0.850%K -1.40%G +0.000%	3.3%	2026-10-01 22:45
BetUS🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -3.85%E -2.47%K -6.88%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -2.17%E -0.850%K -1.40%G +0.000%	3.3%	2026-10-01 22:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -5.08%E -3.30%K -9.41%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -2.17%E -0.850%K -1.40%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-10-01 21:39
Paddy Power🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -5.08%E -3.30%K -9.41%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -2.17%E -0.850%K -1.40%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-10-01 21:40
FanDuel🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -5.70%E -3.73%K -10.75%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -2.17%E -0.850%K -1.40%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-10-01 22:40
Fliff🎯	1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -6.93%E -4.59%K -13.59%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -2.17%E -0.850%K -1.40%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-10-01 23:05
Bovada🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 61.86%EV -3.85%E -2.47%K -6.88%G +0.000%	2.53I 39.53%NM 38.14%EV -2.93%E -1.16%K -1.92%G +0.000%	3.6%	2026-10-01 22:25
Bet Right🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 61.92%EV -4.47%E -2.88%K -8.12%G +0.000%	2.52I 39.68%NM 38.08%EV -3.32%E -1.32%K -2.18%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-10-01 23:05
SportsBet🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.22%EV -5.70%E -3.73%K -10.75%G +0.000%	2.52I 39.68%NM 37.78%EV -3.32%E -1.32%K -2.18%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-10-01 21:40
DraftKings🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -3.85%E -2.47%K -6.88%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -4.08%E -1.63%K -2.72%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-10-01 21:55
Caesars🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -3.85%E -2.47%K -6.88%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -4.08%E -1.63%K -2.72%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-10-01 23:05
Fanatics🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -3.85%E -2.47%K -6.88%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -4.08%E -1.63%K -2.72%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-10-01 21:40
GTbets🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -3.85%E -2.47%K -6.88%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -4.08%E -1.63%K -2.72%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-10-01 22:00
Coral🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -4.47%E -2.88%K -8.12%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -4.08%E -1.63%K -2.72%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-10-01 21:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -4.47%E -2.88%K -8.12%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -4.08%E -1.63%K -2.72%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-10-01 21:40
BetMGM🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -5.08%E -3.30%K -9.41%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -4.08%E -1.63%K -2.72%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-10-01 21:39
theScore Bet🎯	1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -2.00%E -1.26%K -3.39%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -6.00%E -2.45%K -4.14%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-10-01 23:05
PlayUp🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.47%E -2.88%K -8.12%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -6.00%E -2.45%K -4.14%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-01 21:55
Betr (AU)🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.47%E -2.88%K -8.12%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -6.00%E -2.45%K -4.14%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-01 16:14
NordicBet🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 61.00%EV -3.85%E -2.47%K -6.88%G +0.000%	2.44I 40.98%NM 39.00%EV -6.39%E -2.62%K -4.44%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-01 23:04
Betsson🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 61.00%EV -3.85%E -2.47%K -6.88%G +0.000%	2.44I 40.98%NM 39.00%EV -6.39%E -2.62%K -4.44%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-01 23:05
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.75%EV -3.23%E -2.06%K -5.67%G +0.000%	2.43I 41.15%NM 39.25%EV -6.77%E -2.79%K -4.73%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-10-01 22:55
BetRivers🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.75%EV -3.23%E -2.06%K -5.67%G +0.000%	2.43I 41.15%NM 39.25%EV -6.77%E -2.79%K -4.73%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-10-01 17:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -3.85%E -2.47%K -6.88%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -7.92%E -3.30%K -5.66%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-10-01 23:05
ReBet🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -4.47%E -2.88%K -8.12%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -7.92%E -3.30%K -5.66%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-10-01 23:05
Neds🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -4.47%E -2.88%K -8.12%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -7.92%E -3.30%K -5.66%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-10-01 21:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -4.47%E -2.88%K -8.12%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -7.92%E -3.30%K -5.66%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-10-01 21:39
TAB🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -4.47%E -2.88%K -8.12%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -7.92%E -3.30%K -5.66%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-10-01 21:59
Bet Victor🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -4.47%E -2.88%K -8.12%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -7.92%E -3.30%K -5.66%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-10-01 23:05
betano_uk🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -4.47%E -2.88%K -8.12%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -7.92%E -3.30%K -5.66%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-10-01 23:04
NetBet (FR)🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 61.84%EV -10.63%E -7.33%K -23.62%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 38.16%EV -9.84%E -4.19%K -7.29%G +0.000%	11.5%	2026-10-01 22:55

利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率

更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。

博彩交易所 (9)

博彩公司	主队	客队	利润率 ▲	更新时间
Novig◎	1.59I 62.89%NM 62.68%	2.67I 37.45%NM 37.32%	0.3%	2026-10-01 23:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.58I 63.29%NM 62.74%	2.66I 37.59%NM 37.26%	0.9%	2026-10-01 23:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.58I 63.29%NM 62.74%	2.66I 37.59%NM 37.26%	0.9%	2026-10-01 22:55
Matchbook◎	1.58I 63.29%NM 62.74%	2.66I 37.59%NM 37.26%	0.9%	2026-10-01 23:05
Polymarket◎	1.59I 62.89%NM 62.32%	2.63I 38.02%NM 37.68%	0.9%	2026-10-01 15:05
Kalshi◎	1.59I 62.89%NM 62.32%	2.63I 38.02%NM 37.68%	0.9%	2026-10-01 22:35
ProphetX◎	1.57I 63.69%NM 63.06%	2.68I 37.31%NM 36.94%	1.0%	2026-10-01 23:05
Smarkets◎	1.57I 63.69%NM 62.71%	2.64I 37.88%NM 37.29%	1.6%	2026-10-01 23:05
BetOpenly◎	1.59I 62.89%NM 59.34%	2.32I 43.10%NM 40.66%	6.0%	2026-10-01 22:30

其他博彩公司 — 未纳入分析 (21)

这些博彩公司为该盘口提供的选项数量不同，因而未纳入分析。其赔率仅供参考——相关投注的结算规则可能不同，并带来额外的不确定性。

博彩公司	选项 1	选项 2	选项 3	利润率 ▲	更新时间
ATG (SE)🎯	1.88I 53.19%NM 52.37%	3.90I 25.64%NM 25.25%	4.40I 22.73%NM 22.38%	1.6%	2026-10-01 23:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	1.85I 54.05%NM 52.47%	3.85I 25.97%NM 25.21%	4.35I 22.99%NM 22.32%	3.0%	2026-10-01 23:05
Unibet (SE)🎯	1.85I 54.05%NM 52.47%	3.85I 25.97%NM 25.21%	4.35I 22.99%NM 22.32%	3.0%	2026-10-01 23:05
Svenska Spel🎯	1.85I 54.05%NM 52.47%	3.85I 25.97%NM 25.21%	4.35I 22.99%NM 22.32%	3.0%	2026-10-01 23:05
Marathon Bet🎯	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.96%	3.34I 29.94%NM 28.58%	4.25I 23.53%NM 22.46%	4.8%	2026-10-01 22:19
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.94I 51.55%NM 49.17%	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.90%	4.35I 22.99%NM 21.93%	4.8%	2026-10-01 23:05
1xBet🎯	1.86I 53.76%NM 51.27%	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.25%	4.44I 22.52%NM 21.48%	4.9%	2026-10-01 22:59
Coolbet🎯	1.91I 52.36%NM 49.85%	3.40I 29.41%NM 28.00%	4.30I 23.26%NM 22.14%	5.0%	2026-10-01 23:04
Grosvenor🎯	1.81I 55.25%NM 52.40%	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.29%	4.25I 23.53%NM 22.31%	5.4%	2026-10-01 23:05
Unibet🎯	1.81I 55.25%NM 52.40%	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.29%	4.25I 23.53%NM 22.31%	5.4%	2026-10-01 23:05
Casumo🎯	1.81I 55.25%NM 52.40%	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.29%	4.25I 23.53%NM 22.31%	5.4%	2026-10-01 23:05
Unibet (NL)🎯	1.81I 55.25%NM 52.40%	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.29%	4.25I 23.53%NM 22.31%	5.4%	2026-10-01 23:05
TABtouch🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.22%	3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%	6.4%	2026-10-01 23:05
Tipico (DE)🎯	1.90I 52.63%NM 49.31%	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.39%	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%	6.7%	2026-10-01 22:55
Betway🎯	1.91I 52.36%NM 48.74%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%	7.4%	2026-10-01 23:04
Winamax (DE)🎯	1.88I 53.19%NM 48.93%	3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%	4.30I 23.26%NM 21.39%	8.7%	2026-10-01 23:05
Codere (IT)🎯	1.88I 53.19%NM 48.87%	3.20I 31.25%NM 28.71%	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%	8.8%	2026-10-01 23:00
Winamax (FR)🎯	1.88I 53.19%NM 48.65%	3.15I 31.75%NM 29.04%	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.31%	9.3%	2026-10-01 23:05
Betclic (FR)🎯	1.83I 54.64%NM 48.87%	3.05I 32.79%NM 29.32%	4.10I 24.39%NM 21.81%	11.8%	2026-10-01 23:05
PMU (FR)🎯	1.70I 58.82%NM 52.38%	3.55I 28.17%NM 25.08%	3.95I 25.32%NM 22.54%	12.3%	2026-10-01 23:05
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.81I 55.25%NM 48.46%	3.05I 32.79%NM 28.76%	3.85I 25.97%NM 22.78%	14.0%	2026-10-01 22:58