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Montréal Canadiens v Washington Capitals
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Montréal Canadiens (Local)
Prediction 59.33%1.69fair odd
EV -2.10%
Edge -1.27%
Kelly -3.23%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.65
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.14%59.38%59.26%60.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.481.611.621.6567.57%62.12%61.73%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Washington Capitals (Visit)
Prediction 40.67%2.46fair odd
EV -0.368%
Edge -0.150%
Kelly -0.254%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.55%40.62%40.74%41.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.172.352.352.4546.08%42.53%42.55%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Montréal Canadiens (Local): 59.33%; Washington Capitals (Visit): 40.67%. For Washington Capitals (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.46. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.45, with an expected value of -0.368%; they did not produce positive expected value.
22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 59.26%EV -2.10%E -1.27%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.74%EV -2.40%E -1.00%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 2.3% | 2026-02-28 23:54 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.94%EV -3.29%E -2.02%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 41.06%EV -4.84%E -2.07%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-02-28 23:04 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -3.88%E -2.39%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -2.40%E -1.00%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-02-28 16:45 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -3.88%E -2.39%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -2.40%E -1.00%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-02-28 21:39 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -3.88%E -2.39%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -4.03%E -1.71%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-02-28 08:14 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.88%E -2.39%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -4.43%E -1.89%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-02-28 16:00 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.88%E -2.39%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -4.43%E -1.89%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-02-28 08:14 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.88%E -2.39%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -4.43%E -1.89%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-02-28 17:34 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.88%E -2.39%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -4.43%E -1.89%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-02-28 18:09 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.88%E -2.39%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -4.43%E -1.89%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-02-28 23:30 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.88%E -2.39%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -4.43%E -1.89%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-02-28 13:26 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.09%EV -3.88%E -2.39%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.91%EV -4.84%E -2.07%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-02-28 16:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.88%E -2.39%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.47%E -2.81%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-02-28 15:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.88%E -2.39%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.47%E -2.81%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-02-28 18:09 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.88%E -2.39%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.47%E -2.81%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-02-28 18:09 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.88%E -2.39%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.47%E -2.81%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-02-28 19:54 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.57%EV -3.88%E -2.39%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 2.29I 43.67%NM 41.43%EV -6.87%E -3.00%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-02-28 18:34 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.57%EV -3.88%E -2.39%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 2.29I 43.67%NM 41.43%EV -6.87%E -3.00%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-02-28 18:34 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -3.88%E -2.39%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -8.50%E -3.78%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-02-28 23:49 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -4.47%E -2.78%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV -0.368%E -0.150%K -0.254%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-02-28 20:49 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -4.47%E -2.78%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV -0.368%E -0.150%K -0.254%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-02-28 20:50 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.05%EV -4.47%E -2.78%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.95%EV -1.59%E -0.656%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-02-28 22:49 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -4.47%E -2.78%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -2.40%E -1.00%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-02-28 22:54 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.55%EV -4.47%E -2.78%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 40.45%EV -3.62%E -1.53%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-02-28 18:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.55%EV -4.47%E -2.78%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 40.45%EV -3.62%E -1.53%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-02-28 18:09 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.47%E -2.78%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -4.43%E -1.89%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-02-28 23:34 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.24%EV -4.47%E -2.78%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.76%EV -4.84%E -2.07%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-02-28 19:49 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.30%EV -5.07%E -3.17%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.70%EV -1.18%E -0.486%K -0.826%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-02-28 22:54 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.30%EV -5.07%E -3.17%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.70%EV -1.18%E -0.486%K -0.826%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-02-28 22:54 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.07%E -3.17%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.43%E -1.89%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-28 09:20 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.07%E -3.17%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.43%E -1.89%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-28 20:43 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -5.07%E -3.17%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -8.50%E -3.78%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-02-28 23:49 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -5.66%E -3.56%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -2.40%E -1.00%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-02-28 19:49 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -6.85%E -4.36%K -12.01%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -2.40%E -1.00%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-02-28 22:55 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 59.45%EV -12.19%E -8.23%K -25.39%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 40.55%EV -11.75%E -5.42%K -10.05%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-02-28 22:54 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.68I 59.52%NM 59.62% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 40.38% | -0.2% | 2026-02-28 23:39 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.67I 59.88%NM 59.56% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.44% | 0.5% | 2026-02-28 23:54 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63% | 0.9% | 2026-02-28 23:54 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.66I 60.24%NM 59.51% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.49% | 1.2% | 2026-02-28 23:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.65I 60.61%NM 59.85% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.15% | 1.3% | 2026-02-28 23:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.65I 60.61%NM 59.85% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.15% | 1.3% | 2026-02-28 23:54 |
| Novig◎ | 1.66I 60.24%NM 59.41% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 40.59% | 1.4% | 2026-02-28 23:54 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.66I 60.24%NM 59.11% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.89% | 1.9% | 2026-02-28 23:54 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 49.12% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.89% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.99% | 3.3% | 2026-02-28 22:54 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 49.12% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.89% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.99% | 3.3% | 2026-02-28 22:54 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 49.12% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.89% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.99% | 3.3% | 2026-02-28 22:54 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 49.12% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.89% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.99% | 3.3% | 2026-02-28 22:54 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.25% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.60% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.16% | 3.8% | 2026-02-28 19:54 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.30% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 30.63% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 22.07% | 4.7% | 2026-02-28 23:54 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.90% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 32.15% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.95% | 4.7% | 2026-02-28 23:24 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.04% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.83% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.13% | 5.1% | 2026-02-28 22:54 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 47.74% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10% | 5.3% | 2026-02-28 22:38 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.17% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.76% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.07% | 5.4% | 2026-02-28 22:54 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.17% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.76% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.07% | 5.4% | 2026-02-28 22:54 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.17% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.76% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.07% | 5.4% | 2026-02-28 22:54 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.96% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.92% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.12% | 6.4% | 2026-02-28 22:54 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.02% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.21% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.78% | 6.8% | 2026-02-28 19:19 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.00% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.94% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.05% | 8.0% | 2026-02-28 22:54 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.96% | 8.4% | 2026-02-28 15:45 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 46.92% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.65% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43% | 8.7% | 2026-02-28 16:00 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 46.92% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.65% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43% | 8.7% | 2026-02-28 19:54 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 47.18% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.03% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.79% | 9.3% | 2026-02-28 19:54 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 46.80% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.78% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.42% | 10.1% | 2026-02-28 23:49 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 46.80% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.62% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58% | 10.7% | 2026-02-28 23:49 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 46.70% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 30.76% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.53% | 10.9% | 2026-02-28 23:33 |