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Montréal Canadiens v San Jose Sharks
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Montréal Canadiens (Local)
Prediction 58.32%1.71fair odd
EV -2.60%
Edge -1.56%
Kelly -3.89%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.67
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.14%58.32%58.22%60.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.631.621.6764.52%61.41%61.73%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
San Jose Sharks (Visit)
Prediction 41.68%2.40fair odd
EV +2.11%
Edge +0.863%
Kelly +1.46%
Growth +0.031%
assuming max odds 2.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.05%41.68%41.78%42.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.312.302.4545.45%43.30%43.48%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Montréal Canadiens (Local): 58.32%; San Jose Sharks (Visit): 41.68%. For San Jose Sharks (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.40. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.45, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.11%.
19 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| betPARX🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -8.44%E -5.37%K -14.80%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV +2.11%E +0.863%K +1.46%G +0.031% | 4.5% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.56%EV -9.60%E -6.20%K -17.46%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.44%EV -0.804%E -0.338%K -0.582%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.96%EV -3.77%E -2.29%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 41.04%EV -1.22%E -0.515%K -0.891%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.55%EV -6.10%E -3.79%K -10.01%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 40.45%EV -1.22%E -0.515%K -0.891%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-14 23:14 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.85%EV -3.77%E -2.29%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.15%EV -1.64%E -0.694%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-03-14 23:08 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.85%EV -3.77%E -2.29%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.15%EV -1.64%E -0.694%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-03-14 23:08 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -5.52%E -3.41%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -1.64%E -0.694%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -3.77%E -2.29%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -2.05%E -0.874%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -3.77%E -2.29%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -2.05%E -0.874%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-03-14 23:06 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -5.52%E -3.41%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -2.05%E -0.874%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -5.52%E -3.41%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -2.05%E -0.874%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -5.52%E -3.41%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -2.05%E -0.874%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-14 23:07 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -6.69%E -4.18%K -11.14%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -2.05%E -0.874%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-14 23:08 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.65%EV -3.77%E -2.29%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 41.35%EV -2.47%E -1.06%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-03-14 23:06 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -6.10%E -3.79%K -10.01%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -2.89%E -1.24%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-14 23:03 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%EV -5.52%E -3.41%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%EV -3.72%E -1.61%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -2.60%E -1.56%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -4.14%E -1.80%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-14 23:14 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.77%E -2.29%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.14%E -1.80%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-14 23:14 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.52%E -3.41%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.14%E -1.80%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-14 23:14 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.52%E -3.41%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.14%E -1.80%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.52%E -3.41%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.14%E -1.80%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -6.69%E -4.18%K -11.14%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -4.14%E -1.80%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.21%EV -4.94%E -3.03%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 41.79%EV -5.39%E -2.37%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-14 23:04 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.21%EV -4.94%E -3.03%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 41.79%EV -5.39%E -2.37%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-14 23:03 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.77%E -2.29%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.22%E -2.77%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-14 23:11 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.77%E -2.29%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.22%E -2.77%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.77%E -2.29%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.22%E -2.77%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.77%E -2.29%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.22%E -2.77%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-14 23:14 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.52%E -3.41%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.22%E -2.77%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-14 23:05 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.52%E -3.41%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.22%E -2.77%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.03%EV -5.52%E -3.41%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 41.97%EV -6.64%E -2.96%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -3.77%E -2.29%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -8.31%E -3.78%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-14 23:14 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -3.77%E -2.29%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -8.31%E -3.78%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52% | 1.2% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52% | 1.2% | 2026-03-14 23:14 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.79% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.21% | 3.0% | 2026-03-14 23:14 |
| Novig◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.90% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.10% | 3.5% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.61% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.39% | 7.7% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 57.37% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 42.63% | 9.6% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 57.37% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 42.63% | 9.6% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 57.37% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 42.63% | 9.6% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (19)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 49.83% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.58% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.59% | 2.9% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 49.83% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.58% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.59% | 2.9% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 46.41% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.50% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.09% | 4.1% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.43% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.76% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.82% | 5.4% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.43% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.76% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.82% | 5.4% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.17% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.55% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.27% | 5.6% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.82% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.65% | 6.2% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.02% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.21% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.78% | 6.8% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.61% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.69% | 7.2% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.91% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.22% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.86% | 8.9% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 47.17% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.32% | 9.3% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.65% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.04% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.31% | 9.3% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.65% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.04% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.31% | 9.3% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 47.30% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.27% | 9.5% | 2026-03-14 23:01 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.55% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.96% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.49% | 9.8% | 2026-03-14 23:13 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 47.31% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.79% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 21.89% | 10.1% | 2026-03-14 23:05 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.42% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.87% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.71% | 10.1% | 2026-03-14 23:14 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.56% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46% | 11.3% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 45.50% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 31.68% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 22.81% | 16.9% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |