The School of Odds
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Montréal Canadiens v San Jose Sharks

Kickoff: 2026-10-20 23:08 UTC

Final: Montréal Canadiens 3–4 San Jose Sharks

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

40 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Montréal Canadiens (Local)

Prediction 66.19%1.51fair odd
EV -0.710%
Edge -0.474%
Kelly -1.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.29%66.02%66.36%67.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.441.441.5073.53%69.34%69.44%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

San Jose Sharks (Visit)

Prediction 33.81%2.96fair odd
EV +1.42%
Edge +0.474%
Kelly +0.710%
Growth +0.010%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.28%33.98%33.64%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.622.812.813.0038.17%35.63%35.59%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Montréal Canadiens (Local): 66.19%; San Jose Sharks (Visit): 33.81%. For San Jose Sharks (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.96. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.42%.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.72%EV -5.34%E -3.74%K -12.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.28%EV +1.42%E +0.474%K +0.710%G +0.010%3.3%2026-10-20 17:30
LowVig.ag🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.72%EV -5.34%E -3.74%K -12.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.28%EV +1.42%E +0.474%K +0.710%G +0.010%3.3%2026-10-20 17:35
Pinnacle🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 66.36%EV -2.70%E -1.83%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.64%EV -1.96%E -0.676%K -1.03%G +0.000%2.5%2026-10-20 22:05
BetUS🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.82%EV -4.68%E -3.25%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.18%EV -1.96%E -0.676%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-20 16:05
BetAnything🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -5.34%E -3.74%K -12.43%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -1.96%E -0.676%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-20 16:00
Everygame🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -5.34%E -3.74%K -12.43%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -1.96%E -0.676%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-20 16:55
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.67%EV -4.68%E -3.25%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.33%EV -2.64%E -0.915%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-20 22:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.67%EV -4.68%E -3.25%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.33%EV -2.64%E -0.915%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-20 22:45
Bally Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.82%EV -5.34%E -3.74%K -12.43%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.18%EV -2.64%E -0.915%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-20 22:44
betPARX🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.82%EV -5.34%E -3.74%K -12.43%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.18%EV -2.64%E -0.915%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-20 22:45
Caesars🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.51%EV -4.68%E -3.25%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.49%EV -3.31%E -1.16%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-20 16:15
Bet Right🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 66.28%EV -4.02%E -2.77%K -8.93%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.72%EV -3.65%E -1.28%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-20 22:15
DraftKings🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -4.68%E -3.25%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -3.65%E -1.28%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-20 16:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -4.68%E -3.25%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -3.65%E -1.28%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-20 16:00
Fanatics🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -4.68%E -3.25%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -3.65%E -1.28%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-20 22:10
GTbets🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -4.68%E -3.25%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -3.65%E -1.28%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-20 22:04
Bovada🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -4.68%E -3.25%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -3.65%E -1.28%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-20 22:04
Fliff🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.34%E -3.74%K -12.43%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -3.65%E -1.28%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-20 23:05
FanDuel🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.36%EV -4.68%E -3.25%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 33.64%EV -3.99%E -1.40%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-20 22:40
SportsBet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.20%EV -4.68%E -3.25%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.80%EV -4.66%E -1.65%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-20 23:05
ReBet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -3.36%E -2.30%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV -5.34%E -1.91%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-20 22:10
PlayUp🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.02%E -2.77%K -8.93%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -5.34%E -1.91%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-20 16:09
BetMGM🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.02%E -2.77%K -8.93%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -5.34%E -1.91%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-20 22:10
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.68%E -3.25%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -5.34%E -1.91%K -2.97%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-20 22:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.68%E -3.25%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -5.34%E -1.91%K -2.97%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-20 22:10
MyBookie.ag🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.68%E -3.25%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -5.34%E -1.91%K -2.97%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-20 22:14
Betsson🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.56%EV -4.02%E -2.77%K -8.93%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.44%EV -6.69%E -2.42%K -3.80%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-20 22:10
NordicBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.56%EV -4.02%E -2.77%K -8.93%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.44%EV -6.69%E -2.42%K -3.80%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-20 22:10
Betr (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.02%E -2.77%K -8.93%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -7.03%E -2.56%K -4.02%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-20 22:10
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.68%E -3.25%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.03%E -2.56%K -4.02%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-20 16:15
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.68%E -3.25%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.03%E -2.56%K -4.02%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-20 16:15
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.68%E -3.25%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.03%E -2.56%K -4.02%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-20 16:15
theScore Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -0.710%E -0.474%K -1.42%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -8.72%E -3.23%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-20 23:05
TAB🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV -3.36%E -2.30%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -8.72%E -3.23%K -5.13%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-20 22:10
Neds🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.02%E -2.77%K -8.93%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -8.72%E -3.23%K -5.13%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-20 22:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.02%E -2.77%K -8.93%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -8.72%E -3.23%K -5.13%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-20 22:10
NetBet (FR)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.25%EV -9.98%E -7.34%K -27.71%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 33.75%EV -9.74%E -3.65%K -5.83%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-20 23:01
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -4.02%E -2.77%K -8.93%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -10.41%E -3.93%K -6.31%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-20 23:05
betano_uk🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.37%EV -4.02%E -2.77%K -8.93%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.63%EV -11.43%E -4.36%K -7.05%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-20 23:05
Bet Victor🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.37%EV -4.02%E -2.77%K -8.93%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.63%EV -11.43%E -4.36%K -7.05%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-20 23:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
ProphetX◎1.49I 67.11%NM 66.82%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.18%0.4%2026-10-20 23:05
Matchbook◎1.49I 67.11%NM 66.82%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.18%0.4%2026-10-20 23:05
Novig◎1.49I 67.11%NM 66.74%2.99I 33.44%NM 33.26%0.6%2026-10-20 23:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.49I 67.11%NM 66.52%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.48%0.9%2026-10-20 23:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.49I 67.11%NM 66.52%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.48%0.9%2026-10-20 23:05
Polymarket◎1.47I 68.03%NM 67.33%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.67%1.0%2026-10-20 21:35
Kalshi◎1.49I 67.11%NM 66.37%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.63%1.1%2026-10-20 17:30
Smarkets◎1.47I 68.03%NM 66.67%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.33%2.0%2026-10-20 23:05
BetOpenly◎1.47I 68.03%NM 65.97%2.85I 35.09%NM 34.03%3.1%2026-10-20 22:59

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
ATG (SE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 55.40%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.05%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.55%1.4%2026-10-20 22:45
Unibet (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.58%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.72%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.70%2.8%2026-10-20 22:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.58%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.72%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.70%2.8%2026-10-20 22:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.58%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.72%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.70%2.8%2026-10-20 22:45
Coolbet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.67%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.53%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.80%4.5%2026-10-20 23:05
1xBet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.30%3.82I 26.18%NM 25.02%4.62I 21.65%NM 20.68%4.6%2026-10-20 22:59
Unibet (UK)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.47%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.38%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.15%5.1%2026-10-20 23:04
Unibet (NL)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.76%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.66%5.2%2026-10-20 22:40
Casumo🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.76%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.66%5.2%2026-10-20 22:40
Unibet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.76%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.66%5.2%2026-10-20 22:40
Grosvenor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.56%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.91%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.53%5.9%2026-10-20 22:45
TABtouch🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.56%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.91%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.53%5.9%2026-10-20 22:45
Tipico (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.04%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%6.9%2026-10-20 22:04
Marathon Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.39%3.64I 27.47%NM 25.70%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.91%6.9%2026-10-20 23:05
Betway🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.54%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.83%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.63%7.5%2026-10-20 23:05
Winamax (DE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.37%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.40%8.9%2026-10-20 23:05
Codere (IT)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.80%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.41%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.79%9.3%2026-10-20 22:10
Winamax (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.22%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.22%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.56%10.5%2026-10-20 23:05
picklebet_au🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.03%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.76%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.21%10.9%2026-10-20 23:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.57%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.90%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.53%11.9%2026-10-20 23:04
Unibet (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 53.13%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.63%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.25%14.8%2026-10-20 22:58