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Montréal Canadiens v Buffalo Sabres
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Montréal Canadiens (Local)
Prediction 57.26%1.75fair odd
EV -2.08%
Edge -1.22%
Kelly -2.93%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.71
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.00%57.17%57.32%58.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.671.671.7165.36%59.88%59.88%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Buffalo Sabres (Visit)
Prediction 42.74%2.34fair odd
EV -1.27%
Edge -0.551%
Kelly -0.972%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.31
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.98%42.83%42.68%44.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.072.232.252.3148.31%44.87%44.44%43.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Montréal Canadiens (Local): 57.26%; Buffalo Sabres (Visit): 42.74%. For Buffalo Sabres (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.34. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.31, with an expected value of -1.27%; they did not produce positive expected value.
21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 57.14%EV -2.08%E -1.22%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.86%EV -2.56%E -1.12%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 2.3% | 2026-05-12 23:05 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -2.08%E -1.22%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -5.97%E -2.72%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-11 18:29 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -2.08%E -1.22%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -5.97%E -2.72%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-12 18:00 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -2.66%E -1.56%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -5.97%E -2.72%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-12 22:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.75%EV -3.23%E -1.91%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 2.31I 43.29%NM 42.25%EV -1.27%E -0.551%K -0.972%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-05-12 23:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.32%EV -3.23%E -1.91%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 42.68%EV -2.98%E -1.31%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-05-12 22:30 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.32%EV -3.23%E -1.91%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 42.68%EV -2.98%E -1.31%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-05-12 22:30 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.23%E -1.91%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -3.84%E -1.71%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-05-12 22:25 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.23%E -1.91%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -3.84%E -1.71%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-05-12 22:25 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -3.80%E -2.26%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV -4.26%E -1.90%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-12 19:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -3.80%E -2.26%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV -4.26%E -1.90%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-12 16:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.92%EV -3.80%E -2.26%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.08%EV -5.12%E -2.31%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-12 20:45 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -3.80%E -2.26%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.97%E -2.72%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-12 18:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -3.80%E -2.26%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.97%E -2.72%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-12 23:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -4.37%E -2.62%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -1.70%E -0.739%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-05-12 22:55 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.51%EV -4.37%E -2.62%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 42.49%EV -3.41%E -1.51%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-12 22:24 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.37%E -2.62%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.84%E -1.71%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-12 22:50 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.37%E -2.62%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.84%E -1.71%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-12 22:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.37%E -2.62%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.84%E -1.71%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-12 16:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.37%E -2.62%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.84%E -1.71%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-12 16:29 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.37%E -2.62%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.84%E -1.71%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-12 16:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.37%E -2.62%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.84%E -1.71%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-12 22:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.96%EV -4.37%E -2.62%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 2.21I 45.25%NM 43.04%EV -5.55%E -2.51%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-12 22:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.37%E -2.62%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.97%E -2.72%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-12 23:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.37%E -2.62%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.97%E -2.72%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-12 23:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.37%E -2.62%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.97%E -2.72%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-12 18:10 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -4.37%E -2.62%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -8.11%E -3.77%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-12 23:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.87%EV -4.95%E -2.98%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.13%EV -2.56%E -1.12%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-12 22:35 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.87%EV -4.95%E -2.98%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.13%EV -2.56%E -1.12%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-12 22:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -5.52%E -3.34%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -2.56%E -1.12%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-12 22:35 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.52%E -3.34%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.84%E -1.71%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-12 19:50 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.52%E -3.34%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.84%E -1.71%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-12 23:05 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.52%E -3.34%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.97%E -2.72%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-12 16:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.52%E -3.34%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.97%E -2.72%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-12 16:30 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.52%E -3.34%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.97%E -2.72%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-12 23:00 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -5.52%E -3.34%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -10.25%E -4.88%K -9.32%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-12 22:45 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 57.50%EV -12.39%E -8.10%K -23.38%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 42.50%EV -11.53%E -5.57%K -10.78%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-05-12 21:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (9)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.73I 57.80%NM 57.28% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.72% | 0.9% | 2026-05-12 23:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.73I 57.80%NM 57.28% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.72% | 0.9% | 2026-05-12 23:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.73I 57.80%NM 57.28% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.72% | 0.9% | 2026-05-12 23:05 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.53% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 42.47% | 1.1% | 2026-05-12 17:40 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.53% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 42.47% | 1.1% | 2026-05-12 22:55 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.43% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.57% | 1.2% | 2026-05-12 23:05 |
| Novig◎ | 1.73I 57.80%NM 57.07% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.93% | 1.3% | 2026-05-12 23:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.71I 58.48%NM 57.36% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.64% | 2.0% | 2026-05-12 22:50 |
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 56.35% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.65% | 3.2% | 2026-05-12 22:05 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 45.34% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.45% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.21% | 2.6% | 2026-05-12 23:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 45.34% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.45% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.21% | 2.6% | 2026-05-12 23:05 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 45.34% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.45% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.21% | 2.6% | 2026-05-12 23:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 45.34% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.45% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.21% | 2.6% | 2026-05-12 23:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.50% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.99% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.51% | 4.5% | 2026-05-12 23:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.11I 47.39%NM 45.34% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.89% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.78% | 4.5% | 2026-05-12 22:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.48% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 32.05% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.47% | 4.7% | 2026-05-12 22:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.09I 47.85%NM 45.66% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 32.24% | 4.32I 23.15%NM 22.09% | 4.8% | 2026-05-12 22:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.20% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.64% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.15% | 5.3% | 2026-05-12 22:35 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.20% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.64% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.15% | 5.3% | 2026-05-12 22:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.20% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.64% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.15% | 5.3% | 2026-05-12 22:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.20% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.64% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.15% | 5.3% | 2026-05-12 22:35 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.44% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.05% | 5.8% | 2026-05-12 23:05 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.71% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.35% | 6.5% | 2026-05-12 22:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.80% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.83% | 6.5% | 2026-05-12 16:15 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.46% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.76% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.77% | 7.1% | 2026-05-12 23:04 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.18% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.27% | 7.4% | 2026-05-12 23:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.20% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.15% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64% | 7.7% | 2026-05-12 23:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.89% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.19% | 8.6% | 2026-05-12 22:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.69% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.37% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.94% | 9.0% | 2026-05-12 23:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 45.52% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.31% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.17% | 12.1% | 2026-05-12 23:05 |